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題名：心理距離對基線比例忽略的影響
書刊名：心理學報
作者：徐富明／蔣多／張慧／李歐／孔詩曉／史燕偉
作者(外文)：Xu, Fu-ming／Jiang, Duo／Zhang, Hui／Li, Ou／Kong, Shi-xiao／Shi, Yan-wei
出版日期：2016
卷期：2016(10)
頁次：1292-1301
主題關鍵詞：基線比例忽略；心理距離；時間距離；空間距離；社會距離；Base-rate neglect；Psychological distance；Temporal distance；Spatial distance；Social distance
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基線比例忽略是指在不確定情境中，個體進行判斷和決策時不能充分利用或者忽略基線比例的現象。本研究通過系列情境實驗探索了三種不同維度的心理距離，即時間距離、空間距離和社會距離對基線比例忽略的影響。結果發現，三種心理距離均能夠對基線比例忽略產生影響:當時間距離、空間距離和社會距離較近時，個體更容易表現出基線比例忽略現象;而當時間距離、空間距離和社會距離較遠時，個體的基線比例忽略傾向減弱。
The base-rate neglect refers to the phenomenon that individuals tend to underestimate or neglect base-rate information in probability judgment and decision-making. The phenomenon is widespread in daily behavioral decision-making. Since the concept of base-rate neglect has been proposed, the studies of its psychological mechanisms have reached well-documented results and conclusions. But the exploration for its influence factors turned out to be a conservative, thus few researches tried to shed light on its application. What’s more, there is little empirical study of base-rate neglect in China. Therefore, this study aims to verify the base-rate neglect in real decision-making situations, and explore how the psychological distance would affect the base-rate neglect. Study 1 carried out one experiment with 2(temporal distance: distant vs. near) × 2(base rate: high vs. low) between-subject design to examine the moderate effect of temporal distance. A total of 121 students were recruited. The results showed that the temporal distance affected the base-rate neglect under the selection circumstances, and that the base-rate neglect effect was weakened along with the increasing temporal distance, thus individuals tended to make probability judgments based on base rate. Similarly, study 2 explored the effect of spatial distance on the base-rate neglect with 2(spatial distance: distant vs. near) × 2(base rate: high vs. low) between-subject design. A total of 122 students were recruited. The results indicated that the spatial distance affected the base-rate neglect in the selection circumstances, and that the base-rate neglect effect was weakened along with the increasing spatial distance, thus individuals tended to make probability judgments based on base rate. The same with the pattern in study 1 and study 2, study 3 explored the effect of social distance on the base-rate neglect with 2(social distance: distant vs. near) × 2(base rate: high vs. low) between-subject design. A total of 144 students were recruited. It was found that the social distance affected the base-rate neglect in the selection circumstances, and that the base-rate neglect effect was weakened along with the increasing social distance, thus individuals tended to make probability judgments based on base rate. In sum, three studies provided consistent evidences that different dimensions of psychological distance, namely temporal distance, spatial distance and social distance could affect the relative weight according to case description information as well as base rate information in the base-rate neglect situations.
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