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題名:強制性財務預測的資訊移轉效果之研究
作者:簡俱揚 引用關係
作者(外文):Jian,Jiu-Young
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:商學系
指導教授:蔡彥卿
學位類別:博士
出版日期:1996
主題關鍵詞:資訊移轉強制性財務預測盈餘組成因素準確度Information TransferMandatory Management ForecastsEarnings''
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 點閱點閱:24
「強制性」財務預測制度及預測資訊應揭露「盈餘組成因素」的預測值是
我國特有的規定。 針對此等規定,本研究探討盈餘組成因素的預測資訊
在同產業中的移轉效果,並探討若干中介變數(預測準確度和營業外損益)
對資訊移轉效果的影響。期望研究結果能對資本市場管制政策的制定及本
土化財務會計理論的建立有所助益。本研究建立能控制產業效果,主要是
以營業收入成長率(包括產業市場變動率及產業市場占有率)、毛利率變動
、營業費用率變動及營業外損益變動為解釋變數的實證模型,以民國81年
至83年間台灣證券交易所之上市公司為對象進行實證。重要結果及發現摘
錄如下:一、在台灣證券市場,強制性財務預測具資訊移轉效果。二、我
國現行強制性財務預測規定要求揭露盈餘組成因素,如此提供了更完整、
更清晰的會計資訊,故超乎盈餘彙總額成為投資者的決策參考因素。各解
釋變數中營業收入成長率、營業費用率變動及營業外損益變動均具顯著增
額資訊移轉效果。三、宣告公司財務預測準確度高低與其宣告資訊的移轉
效果之強弱成正向關係。四、與營業外損益具資訊內涵的研究結果相同,
營業外損益亦具資訊移轉效果。惟此項效果大體來自產業效果,各產業強
弱有別。
The Taiwanese Security Exchange Committee requires that
companies listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange and the Over-the-
Counter Market disclose financial forecasts when certain condi-
tions are met. This unique regulation demands many earnings
com- ponents be disclosed. Aiming at this specific regulation,
I examine the intra-industry information transfer effect of the
earnings'' components forecast and the influence of some
variables (the accuracy of forecasts and non-operating incomes
and expen- ses) on the information transfer effect. The
empirical evidences may provide some guidance for the
government to revise the regul- ation of this financial
forecast rule. The explanatory variables are the sales growth
rate (includ- ing change in industry market size and change in
industry market share), changes in gross profit ratio, changes
in operation ex- penses ratio. The model also controls for the
industry effect. The sampling period are the years from 1992 to
1994. Major find- ings are summarized below: 1. There is a
significant link between mondisclosers'' unexpected price
reactions and disclosers'' unexpected earnings compo- nents. 2.
Earnings components forecasts provide finer accounting infor-
mation than aggregate earnings forecasts do, so they are more
relevant to investors'' decisions. 3. The accuracy of
disclosers'' forecasts have positive influence on the magnitude
of information transfer. 4. Disclosers'' non-operating incomes
and expenses can transfer information about nondisclosers in
the same industry. The mag- nitude of the transfer effects are
different among industries.
 
 
 
 
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