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題名:國內航空客運旅客選擇決策之實證研究
作者:呂錦隆 引用關係
作者(外文):Jin-Long Lu
校院名稱:國立成功大學
系所名稱:交通管理學系
指導教授:段良雄
學位類別:博士
出版日期:1999
主題關鍵詞:航空旅客航空公司與航班聯合選擇模式重複衡量促(行)銷策略顯示偏好敘述偏好Air PassengersAirline and Flight Joint Choice ModelRepeated MeasurementPromotion StrategiesRevelaed PreferenceStated Preference
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本研究探討之主題為國內航空客運旅客在面對現有競爭結構下之航空市場時,其選擇搭乘航空運具之行為決策問題,目的在於了解航空旅客所面對之選擇問題型態,及尋求適當之模式方法進行實證,判斷影響航空旅客選擇決策之重要變數。本研究對實際問題之剖析,乃由國內航空市場之競爭特性,及在此競爭環境下航空旅客之選擇行為做一觀察,再由此界定本研究所探討之三個實證課題:(1)航空公司選擇行為之分析;(2)航空公司與航班之聯合選擇行為分析,以及(3)重覆衡量觀察數據之分析。這些實證課題均透過本研究實地蒐集旅客之顯示偏好數據與敘述偏好數據,以建立選擇模式之方式進行分析。
為了能反映航空旅客在聯營市場中所可能面對之不同選擇問題型態,本研究藉由特別設計之二類敘述偏好實驗,分別(1)模擬未預先訂位之旅客在抵達機場之後,考量各航空公司最近起飛航班之時間,來決定選搭航空公司之選擇情境(SP1);以及(2)模擬已知各航空公司提供之航班時間之旅客,在不蒙受行程延誤損失之前提下,就各航空公司及其航班到達目的機場之時間特性來決定之選擇情境(SP2)。其中由SP2情境所獲得之數據,並可與航空旅客之實際選擇(顯示偏好)數據加以結合分析。
實證分析結果發現:(1)影響航空客運旅客選擇決策之重要變數有航空公司之設備與安全服務因素、人員服務因素、旅客須等候最近起飛航班之時間、航班到達目的機場之早到及晚到時間、票價、可能延誤時間、機上餐飲服務、促銷活動、認同卡,以及搭機慣性(忠誠性)等;(2)分析航空客運旅客之選擇行為時,應將其對航班時間之偏好納入選擇問題之中,換言之,應以航空公司與航班之聯合選擇型式來從事分析工作,而非以單一航空公司選擇型式來進行,如此方得以完整地討論旅客之選擇決策行為。另外,以連續航班時間方案之處理方式來納入聯合選擇問題分析,也較能得出較佳之結果;(3)本研究蒐集之敘述偏好數據具有重複衡量之特性,惟實證結果顯示,不同旅客面對不同之SP2情境時,並未存有明顯之品味變異。亦即SP2敘述偏好數據之重複衡量特性並不會造成模式估計之偏誤;(4)促銷活動與認同卡(或聯名信用卡、貴賓卡)策略,對航空旅客之選擇決策有明顯之影響效果。同時,模式之結果亦顯示,促銷活動與持有認同卡因素對航空旅客之影響,獨立於其他變數之外。
The main aim of this research is to understand the choice problem faced by air passengers, and to discuss the factors which have effect on the air passengers’ choice behavior. After studied the competitive characteristics of air passenger market and passengers'' choice behavior in the market, we defined three empirical issues: (1)Airline choice behavior. (2)Airline choice and flight choice behavior. (3)Repeated measurement problem. We collected air passengers’ revealed preference (RP) data and stated preference (SP) data through field questionnaire survey, and estimated serveral choice models to analyze the above issues.
In order to reflect the practical choice problems of air passengers, we applied two specially designed SP games: (1) The first SP game (SP1) is to simulate the situation that an air passenger without reservation checks the departure time of all airlines after arriving at the airport, then makes a decision. (2) The second SP game (SP2) is to simulate the situation which an air passenger knowing the flight schedule of all airlines considers the arrival time of all available flights to avoid delaying the pre-planned trip schedule, then makes a decision. The SP2 data can be combined with RP data.
The empirical results showed that: (1) The variables which significantly influenced the choice decision of air passengers were safety and equipment, crew and staff services, waiting time, early and late arrival time, fare, delaying time, in-flight food and drink services, promotion strategies, frequently flier card, and inertial(loyalty). (2) Using airline and flight joint choice model to analyze the choice behavior of air passengers is more suitable than just using single choice airline model. (3) We successfully estimated the variance of individual repeated measurement effect by using SP2 data. From the estimated result, we concluded that SP repeated measurement data did not induce severe bias. (4) The promotion strategies and frequently flier card did affect the air passengers’ choice behavior. Also, the effects of promotion strategies and frequently flier card on air passengers were not related with other variables.
張淳智,民國84年,出發時間與運具之聯合選擇模式(二),行政院國家科學委員會專題研究計劃成果報告。
交通部民用航空局,民航統計月報-民國86年12月,中華民國87年。
交通部運輸研究所,運輸資料分析,中華民國87年。
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