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題名：台商對大陸投資進入時機、區域群聚與績效關係之研究
作者：魏上淩 引用關係
作者(外文)：Wei, Shang-Ling
校院名稱：國立臺灣大學
系所名稱：商學研究所
指導教授：湯明哲
周善瑜
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2002
主題關鍵詞：對外直接投資；進入時機；區域群聚；群集行為；產業群聚；foreign direct investment；entry timing；regional cluster；herding behavior；industrial cluster
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一九八０年初期以來，世界經濟整合的驅動力已逐漸由傳統的國際貿易活動，轉變為對外直接投資活動，而全球對外直接投資活動近三分之二集中於美、英、德、日等先進國家；但自一九九０年後，中國大陸已經成為全球最大對外投資接受國，而投資來源國除了美國、日本外，台灣更是主要的投資來源國，台商在中國大陸的投資行為，也因而逐漸成為重要的政策與學術研究議題。
過去的相關文獻對於為何、如何、何處、及與誰進行對外投資活動，已有相當多元的討論，但是，對於投資時機與區域群聚對廠商投資區位選擇之影響的研究，則相對不足。實務上，觀察台商對大陸投資在時機與區位選擇上，似乎出現高度決策相似性，亦即是廠商在某一段時間內相繼投入，且傾向於選擇相同的區位進行直接投資。此一現象，在以往的直接對外投資理論中，是較少被探討之處。
本研究以國內上市公司對大陸投資行為為實證對象，以Cox之比例危險率模型、與意外截取迴歸模型，驗證台商對大陸投資之進入時機、區域群聚與其經營績效關係，並獲得以下的重要結論：
1. 先前進入廠商家數顯著地正向影響廠商的進入率，亦即顯示台商赴大陸投資的確出現群集（herding）的現象；但是，規模大的廠商傾向晚進入大陸投資。
2. 整體而言，廠商進入某一特定區域群聚的機率，也會正向地受先前進入該區域群聚廠商的影響，顯示台商赴大陸投資確實存在區域群聚現象；但是，技術能力較強的廠商，傾向不以區域群聚為投資區位的選擇。
3. 廠商進入率與進入廠商家數呈現倒『U』型的關係，顯示新市場形成初期，市場利基豐富且可取得合法性，因而進入率高，但隨著市場競爭激烈，進入率則遞減。
4. 就大陸投資的財務績效而言，較早進入大陸投資的廠商，其獲利程度較佳；傾向於投資於區域群聚的廠商，有助於其獲利；但是，廠商投資的區位越分散，其獲利則越低。
根據本文的研究結果，可提供赴大陸投資廠商如下之建議：一、當外在環境不確定性高時，廠商可採取與先前投資者（或同產業之競爭者）相似的決策，早期進入市場，如此可以有效降低其資訊與決策成本，甚至可獲得報酬之外部效果；二、產業群聚的有無在投資區位的考量上是個重要因素，若廠商的資本規模較小、研發能力與其他資源能力較弱者，在區位選擇上應以產業群聚之區域為投資地點之首選；三、在投資區位上，因中國大陸的基礎設施質與量仍相對不足，投資設廠應集中，不宜在區位上過於分散，藉以降低運輸與溝通協調成本。
Since 1980, the dominant force of world economy has been shifted from international trade activities to those of foreign direct investments. While foreign direct investment activities have been concentrating in developed countries, including US, UK, Germany, and Japan, China has emerged as the largest recipient of foreign direct investments in the 1990s, in which Taiwanese firms represent a major source of its inward foreign investments. The growing amount of cross-strait investments leads to more policy and research attentions regarding Taiwanese firms’ investment behavior, an issue on which the present thesis will focus.
Previous literature of foreign direct investments has been focused on issues concerning why, how, where and with whom the foreign direct investments will engage. Nevertheless, the timing of foreign entry, the location decision of foreign entry, and their impact on the post-entry performance have been less explored in this stream of research. Taking on literature of herding behavior and industry cluster, the present thesis attempts to investigate Taiwanese firms’ foreign investment behaviors in Mainland China, with an emphasis on the timing and location decisions. The empirical context contains more than seven hundreds Mainland China investments made by 270 listed companies over the period of 1981-1991. By utilizing the Cox’s proportional hazard rate model and incidental truncation regression model, we are able to empirically validate the determinants on the entry timing and choice of regional cluster as well as their impacts on the financial performance of the foreign investment. Major findings of this study include:
1. The numbers of prior entry will positively affect the likelihood of timing decision of a focal firm. This clearly indicates that herding behavior in time dimension exists in Taiwanese firms’ foreign investments in Mainland China. In addition, firms of larger scale will later enter into Mainland China.
2. The numbers of prior entry will positively affect the firm’s likelihood of choosing a regional cluster as its entry location. This piece of evidence implies the existence of herding behavior in location of Taiwanese firms for their investments in Mainland China. However, firms with a greater technical competence tend to deviate from the regional cluster when entering into Mainland China.
3. There is the inverted “U” relationship between the entry rate and the numbers of entry. This implies that in the early stage of foreign entry firms tend to herd with each other in order to gain access to the abundant resources in the market niche chosen and the legitimacy. However, the entry rate will decrease as market competition increases.
4. As far as the financial performance is concerned, our empirical results show that early entry firms performed better than later coming ones. In addition, firms with investments in dispersed locations experienced worse performance than those invested in regional cluster.
Our findings seem to provide empirical supports to the existence of herding behavior and regional cluster in foreign direct investments. To cope with environment uncertainties, imitating early entrants may reduce information costs in decision. Choosing regional cluster to enter could gain access to complementary resources and eventually reduce entry risks. Theoretical and managerial implications of these findings are also discussed.
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