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題名:水災脆弱性評估模式之建立—以汐止市為例
作者:蕭煥章
作者(外文):Huan-Chang Hsiao
校院名稱:中國文化大學
系所名稱:地學研究所
指導教授:張長義
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2008
主題關鍵詞:脆弱性評估模式水災汐止市vulnerability assessment modelfloodShijhih citytaiwandata
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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本論文主要研究目的在建立水災脆弱性的評估模式,透過理論文獻回顧、選定研究區從事學者專家深入訪談,並結合已出版之官方統計數據蒐集與分析,藉由自然與社會脆弱性分析與探討獲得地方脆弱性評估結果。本研究所提出之水災脆弱性評估方法,先從事臺灣本島各縣市(約數百至上千平方公里)與臺北縣各鄉鎮市(約數十至上百平方公里)等較小比例尺較大空間範圍的水災脆弱性評估,經與歷次水災事故結果進行脆弱性比較分析,發現研究結果所呈現出的社會、自然與地方脆弱性結果相當符合;因此,驗證此一研究方法具有可操作性並續予推動適用,據以針對汐止市研究區各里大比例尺較小的空間單元(祇約數平方公里)進行水災脆弱性評估模式之建立。
自然脆弱性評估採用國家災害防救科技中心所公布的淹水潛勢資料與納莉颱風造成汐止各里淹水的戶數進行計算。社會脆弱性評估則綜合文獻回顧、學者專家深入訪談、參考Cutter所建立美國社會脆弱性評量指標與統計資料可用性,本研究則採用9個變項包括女性、住戶數、人口數、低收入者、獨居老人、身心障礙者、14歲以下、65歲以上與不識字進行計算;加總前述9項評分計算出社會脆弱性程度,將所得之自然脆弱評分乘以社會脆弱評分則可得地方脆弱評分結果。本研究也將計算所得評分採自然區隔分類法分為5個列等,藉由地理資訊系統圖示呈現出研究區相對脆弱性地理分佈。
研究結果顯示如下:
一、臺灣本島各縣市最具地方脆弱性依序為:臺南縣、雲林縣、彰化縣、臺北縣與屏東縣。
二、臺北縣各鄉鎮市最具地方脆弱性依序為:汐止市、新莊市、板橋市與中和市。
三、汐止市各里最具地方脆弱性依序為:橋東里、橫科里、新昌里、江北里、忠孝里、保長里、中興里、秀峰里與湖光里。
本研究更進一步將汐止市轄內重要行政機關、具社會脆弱性場所、低收入者、身心障礙者、獨居老人等特別需要服務人口/處所的地址,與地方脆弱性及具淹水潛勢區域進行地理資訊系統圖層套疊,發現有2,027人/處、占總數之28%,其分佈於最具地方脆弱性的8個里。此外,也將特別需要服務人口/處所地址分佈圖與淹水潛勢區域套疊,發現有118人/處不僅具特別服務需要且位處淹水潛勢區域內,呈現出汐止市各里具有多重脆弱性與最具脆弱性的地區,檢視其與淹水潛勢區域的鄰近關係,可將其建議列為災害管理人員在水災防救作業中優先處理的對象。
本研究分析結果與討論所得之具體結論,可回應Cutter針對SoVI研究結果,其以美國各「郡」(county)較大的空間單元(約數千平方公里)進行評分,乃不如本研究以「里」為單元(約數平方公里),所得到的結果更能依脆弱性呈現地方脆弱地理空間分佈;因此,本研究結果對於具有脆弱性空間單元的掌握程度能相對提升;其結果不僅可適用於汐止市,也將適用於臺灣其他各鄉鎮市區。
The aim of this research attempts to establish flood hazard vulnerability assessment model. On reviewing of references, using in-depth interview method and acquiring published governmental statistical data, taking physical and social vulnerability score to establish place vulnerability score. On this method, proceeding on the vulnerability assessment for Taiwan island by county, by hundreds of square kilometers, and for Taipei county by city, by tens of square kilometers for verification. Comparing with the history floods, the physical, social and place vulnerability score are consistent with those flooding cases. Proving this method is meeting the requirement of implementation. For the Shijhih city by villages (city districts), smaller spatial unit by square of kilometers, are applying to create the flood hazard vulnerability assessment model.
For physical vulnerability assessment, NCDR’s flood potential areas and number of households suffered by typhoon Nari’s flooding in the Shijhih city are taken to calculate physical vulnerability score. For social vulnerability assessment, nine social variables are included, i.e. female, number of households, the population, the poor, the elderly living alone, the disability, the age under 14, the age over 65 and the illiterate, which are acquiring from the reference reviewing, in-depth interview, Cutter’s SoVI (social vulnerability index) and statistical data available. Social vulnerability is created by summing up the score of nine variables. For place vulnerability assessment, multiple physical vulnerability and social vulnerability score, place vulnerability is created. These vulnerability scores are divided into five rankings by the natural breaks method of classification. The relative vulnerability of study area spatial distribution will be shown on GIS format.
The conclusion of this research as follows,
1.The most vulnerable counties for Taiwan island are Tainan county, Yunlin county, Changhua county, Taipei county and Pingtung county.
2.The most vulnerable cities for Taipei county are Shijhih city, Sinjhuang city, Banciao city and Jhonghe city.
3.The most vulnerable villages for Shijhih city are Ciaodong, Hengke, Sinchang, Jiangbei, Jhongsiao, Baochang, Jhongsing, Sioufong and Huguang village.
Overlaying place vulnerability ranking and flood potential map with the address of critical infrastructure and special needs population/place, there are 2,027 special needs populations/places, that mean 28% located at the eight most place vulnerable villages. There are also 118 special needs populations/places located at the flood potential area. It will be easy for the emergency managers taking the first priority and responding to flood hazard by identifying the multiple vulnerabilities and the most vulnerable in the Shijhih city’s villages, by examining their proximity to flood potential area.
Compared to Cutter’s SoVI study, result of this study is based on vulnerability of village by square kilometers instead of county by thousands of square kilometer, and place vulnerability is easy to identify by spatial distribution. The conclusion of this research is worth implementing and practicing in other cities in Taiwan.
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