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題名:台灣上市公司之股價暨交易量對現金股利政策之反應研究
作者:吳宗欣
作者(外文):Tsung-Hsin Wu
校院名稱:國立雲林科技大學
系所名稱:財務金融系
指導教授:楊踐為
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2015
主題關鍵詞:除息事件現金股利異常報酬率異常交易量事件研究法Ex-Dividend EventCash-DividendAbnormal Return RateAbnormal Trade VolumeEvent Study
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本文採用市場指數調整法,探討2001年至2012年台灣上市公司的現金股利政策對除息期間的股價報酬及交易量的影響。我們發現台灣上市公司僅發放現金股利公司家數佔發放股利公司家數百分比,從2000年起迅速成長,到2011年更高達70.28%,為近年股利政策的主流。在除息事件期間,平均累積異常報酬率為2.07%;而平均累積異常交易量則達248.84%,主要的異常交易量發生在除息日前一天及除息日當天。
我們進一步就現金股利增減、現金股利發放率、現金股利金額高低、股票交易週轉率、公司規模及產業類別等面向深入討論,試圖找出更具堅固的除息行情變數。實證結果顯示,除了現金股利增減及股票交易週轉率高低會影響到除息期間的累積異常報酬率之外,其餘變數則不顯著。在現金股利增減的分析中,我們發現現金股利增加之群組其累積異常報酬率達2.26%,而現金股利減少之群組其累積異常報酬率為0.49%,檢定結果呈現顯著,表示現金股利增加之公司,在除息事件期間,比現金股利減少之公司具有更高的累積異常報酬,結論支持股利訊號理論。在股票交易週轉率高低分析中,發現股票週轉率最高之群組其累積異常報酬率平均為1.12%,而股票週轉率最低之群組其累積異常報酬率平均為3.05%,檢定結果呈現顯著,表示股票週轉率低之公司,在除息事件期間,比股票週轉率高之公司具有更高的累積異常報酬。
此外,本文研究期間也曾著手從財務比率方面進行分析,試圖找出更具影響除息效果的關鍵因素,但不論是流動比率、負債比率、總資產報酬率、股東權益報酬率或現金允當率,均未有顯著的差異存在。
This paper adopts cash dividend samples from all listed firms in Taiwan during the period from 2001 to 2012, applying an event study in order to investigate the impact of cash-dividend policy on share prices with Market Index Adjustment Model. The percentage of firms paying out only cash dividends for all the firms paying out dividends has shown a significant increase. This percentage topped 70.28% in 2011. In ex-dividend session, investor will obtain an average of about 2.07% cumulative abnormal returns. And we find the average cumulative abnormal trading volume reaches 248.84% in ex-dividend session.
Further, we analyze whether firms adopting cash-dividend payouts have different abnormal returns on stock price performance depending on different variables. These variables include “Change of Cash-Dividend”, “Cash-Dividend Payout Ratio”, “Amount of Cash-Dividend”, “Stock Trade Turnover Rates”, “Firm Sizes” and “Different Industries”. The results only “Change of Cash-Dividend” and “Stock Trade Turnover Rates” these two variables are significant, others are insignificant. We discovered the average cumulative abnormal return of the group with a cash dividend increase was 2.26%. And the average cumulative abnormal return of the group with a cash decrease was 0.49%. Additionally, we find the average cumulative abnormal return of the group with high stock trade turnover rate was 1.12%. And the average cumulative abnormal return of the group with low stock trade turnover rate was 3.05%.
In study period, we have try to use the financial ratio to analyze the ex-dividend effect. But all the variables we chose were not significant. These variables include “Liquidity Ratio”, “Debt Ratio”, “Return of Total Assets”, “Return on Equity” and “Cash Flow Adequacy Ratio”.
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