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題名：中國之經濟治略與菲律賓為目標國之回應：雅羅育、艾奎諾三世、杜特蒂政府案例研究 (2001-2019)
作者：榮沛芳
作者(外文)：Gratiana Pei-fang Jung
校院名稱：國立臺灣大學
系所名稱：政治學研究所
指導教授：左正東
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2020
主題關鍵詞：經濟治略；中國；菲律賓；南海；國內政治；政治經濟學；國家性；Economic statecraft；China；the Philippines；the South China Sea disputes；Domestic politics；Political economy；Stateness
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本論文探討自2001年起，菲律賓對中國經濟國策(Economic Statecraft)之回應，涵蓋Gloria Arroyo, Benigno Aquino III, 與Rodrigo Duterte三位總統任期 (2001-2019)。菲中雖自1990年代羅慕斯總統時期逐漸交流密切，菲國在持續藉助美國制衡中國的策略的主軸下，同時拓展對中政經關係。至2001年Arroyo接任因貪腐案下台之Joseph Estrada總統，全方位提升對中關係之政策。僅管在此之前，中菲雙方因南海問題爭執不下，但Arroyo任內成為兩國關係史上的「黃金時期」。這段期間，南海問題未出現直接造成雙方劍拔怒張的情勢。然而，執政中期Arroyo涉入選舉弊案，並牽連出南海共同開發案，與其他數項大型基礎建設案之貪腐情事，民情沸騰，而中國在這些計畫中皆涉入甚深，Arroyo總統在壓力下，或暫停或取消與中合作案，因此中菲關係亦變得微妙。同時，由於2001年911恐怖攻擊事件，菲國本身亦因面臨相同困擾，再度凸顯菲國必須與美國合作的新層面問題。因此，Arroyo總統也得一改以往對菲美軍事安全合作的消極態度，再度強化雙邊的合作。
Aquino III於2010就任後，中菲關係幾乎完全籠罩於南海仲裁案的影響而停擺，反之，與美國的關係卻又更進一步回溫，且較Arroyo時期又更強化了雙方軍事合作與同盟關係。然而在國內改革政策方面，Aquino III的成績不如預期。2016年6月Duterte就任，出身非傳統政治菁英，來自地方，走民粹路線的新總統，立即翻轉Aquino III的中美的政策。他不但全面恢復與中國交往，積極爭取中國貿易與投資，捐助等，且比Arroyo總統更加開放。此外，還將菲國在歷經數年贏得南海仲裁案結果束諸高閣，避免使其成為推動對中政策的障礙。同時國內政策方面，他為推動掃毒，採行法外處決(extrajudicial killings) 的政策，使美國國會亦立法制裁菲國違反人權者。雖然杜特蒂與美關係看似越走越遠，但中美對抗情勢高升，美國川普政府亦急欲拉攏菲國，因此反而暗中持續美菲國同盟關係之政策。杜特蒂總統得以走在中美競爭中利益極大化的空間，同時又由於強人形象與論述之經營得宜，國內執政表現支持度創下歷史新高，儘管親中遠美政策，不受民眾歡迎，但仍然可以持續對中扈從之政策立場。藉此，由美得到安全保障，由中取得資源，使國內經濟社會發展。其實三位菲律賓總統，都體認到菲律賓對中關係的不平衡的前提之下，身為小國，在國家對外關係中，都持國際關係理論所言之國家利益極大化之思維。但顯然三者，在對中政策上，因觀點與國內外政策環境變化，採行了不同的作法。本文特別想要探討，他們各自的對中政策，深受哪些變數影響，何者最能解釋他們為何選擇扈從或不扈從中國對其實施之經濟國策。
過往對於經濟治略之文獻，多半以政策發出國(the sender country)為研究對象，亦缺乏國內層面的政策因素之研究。本文由國際政治經濟與國際關係理論切入，運用Jena-Marc F. Blanchard and Norrin M. Ripsman之理論模型，檢視菲律賓為目標國(the target country)，就國內政治與對策略性風險的威脅，對於領導人考量政治成本，進而影響其扈從或不扈從發出國的政策選擇。
This dissertation discusses the economic statecraft deployed by China towards the Philippines in recent three administrations, which covers Arroyo, Aquino III, and part of Duterte administrations from 2001 to 2019. The purpose of this research is to contribute to theoretical and policy-making of economic statecraft.
The dissertation tests the model proposed by Jena-Marc F. Blanchard and Norrin M. Ripsman who argued the significance of political costs as a condition for the leader of the target state in their decision-making as to comply or not comply to the political demands imposed by the sender through either economic sanctions or inducements directed to the target. They particularly focused on the domestic aspect, and contended that stateness (including, autonomy, capacity, and legitimacy), especially legitimacy is the major intervening variable in shaping the decision-making, while they also stressed the importance of threats to strategic risk (TSI) at international level. The dissertation’s findings, in general, support their argument. However, it also indicates that the model is less capable of explaining shifting in decisions happening to the same administration. Indeed, there are other nuanced factors that more explored in neoclassical realist’s and foreign policy analysis that could affect leaders’ decision-making.
By examining the three administration of the Philippines as the target state, it demonstrated the dynamics of the target state’s decision-making also plays a significant role in the effectiveness of economic statecraft initiated by the sender.
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