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題名：台灣民眾對於環境與生態保護之願付價格估計
作者：許聖民
作者(外文)：Sheng-Ming Hsu
校院名稱：國立中興大學
系所名稱：應用經濟學系所
指導教授：陳吉仲
曾偉君
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2021
主題關鍵詞：條件評估法；願付價值；非參數模型；Contingent Valuation Method；Willingness to Pay；Nonparametric model
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近年來，台灣積極發展能源轉型，邁向非核家園目標。故經濟部訂定了到2025年的能源政策目標，分別為天然氣：煤炭：再生能源的比例為5:3:2，既保證了供電的穩定性，又減少了空氣污染和碳排放。而本研究第一篇主要探討在台灣民眾對於減少PM2.5之願付價值，尤其在減少跨境PM2.5排放源之願付價值(跨境汙染之外部性)。另一篇探討在新能源政策的推動之下，第三天然氣接收站的設置與藻礁保護之間考量，評估其能源安全與生態保護價值及民眾意願。
首先，第一部分是估計台灣不同地區民眾對於減少PM2.5來達到三種空氣品質標準之願付價值，通過面對面問卷訪問和條件評估法(Probit模型)進行估計。研究發現：(1)了解「台灣PM2.5排放量的34%~40%來自境外」知識的民眾對於減少PM2.5的意願較高。(2)家中有額外保險以及安裝空氣清淨機的民眾，對於減少PM2.5的意願較高。(3)中部地區民眾的減少PM2.5之願付價格較為敏感，達到符合WHO標準的願付價格相較其他地區高。(4)在三種排放標準之下，北部地區的平均願付價格最高。(5)跨境PM2.5(約佔台灣PM2.5排放量的33%)之願付價值為NT$136.7億元。 (6)將近71.05%的民眾願意以課稅模式來支付費用。透過實證結果顯示，各地區民眾在考量所得有限之下，未來在國內相關法規與政策推動下，可積極加強民眾的參與，以及相關政策法令宣導的透明性以及易懂性。而針對跨境排放源汙染減少上，台灣民眾的支持意願也是顯著的，可作為未來政策制定者在國際合作上的規劃與參考。
其次，過去在許多與能源相關的設施興建也常會引起環境保護問題，使政府難以做出決定。第三天然氣接收站替代方案的支持者和反對者都非常有影響力，因此本研究使用願付價值(WTP)來顯示雙方面意見的強度，以幫助決策。這意味著在估計社會接受度時，需要更多不同的方法與結果來提供參考。本研究採用參數模型包括傳統的Probit 模型和結構化的Probit 模型。另外，我們還估計了一個非參數模型以獲得可靠的支付意願值。研究發現： (1)知識來自環保團體以及了解凸堤效應的受訪者，在支持興建第三天然氣接收站的願付價格是正向。而男性、年紀較小以及沒有特別政黨偏好的受訪者，在保護藻礁的願付價值是正向且顯著。 (2)民眾願意以增加電費來支付費用。(3)支持興建第三天然氣接收站的平均WTP為每人每年55.905美元。支持保護藻礁的平均WTP為每人每年36.160美元。(4)支持興建第三天然氣接收站的受訪者為279人，支持保護藻礁的支持者為789人。整體支持保護藻礁是支持興建第三天然氣的1.83倍，但其面對的願付價值是不同的。建議應審慎考慮第三天然氣的興建，或者需要尋求其他能源項目或者節能措施，而本研究結果可提供政府在規劃決策之參考。
In recent years, Taiwan has actively developed its energy transition and has moved towards the goal of a non-nuclear homeland. Therefore, the Ministry of Economic Affairs has set an energy policy goal by 2025, with the ratio of natural gas: coal: renewable energy at 5:3:2. This goal not only ensures the stability of power supply, but also reduces air pollution and carbon emissions. The first article of this dissertation mainly discusses the willingness-to-pay for the reduction of PM2.5 in Taiwan, especially the willingness-to-pay for the reduction of cross-border PM2.5 emission sources (the externality of cross-border pollution). Another article explores the considerations between the construction of the third natural gas receiving station and the protection of algae reefs under the promotion of the new energy policy, assessing its energy security and ecological protection value and public preferences.
First part estimates the willingness-to-pay of reducing PM2.5 to meet three air quality standards for people in different regions. It is estimated through face-to-face questionnaire interviews and contingent valuation methods (Probit model). The results reveal that (1) Respondents who understand that “34%-40% of PM2.5 emissions in Taiwan come from cross-border” have higher willingness-to-pay. (2) Respondents with extra insurance and air purifiers have higher willingness-to-pay. (3) Respondents in the central region have higher willingness-to-pay, and the have higher willingness-to-pay for meeting WHO standards is higher than those live in other regions. (4) Under three emission standards, the average willingness-to-pay in the northern region is the highest. (5) The value of willingness-to-pay for avoiding the cross-border PM2.5 (approximately 33% of Taiwan’s PM2.5 emissions) is about NT$13.67 billion. (6) Nearly 71.05% of the respondents are willing to pay the fees by tax. The empirical results show that in the future, under the promotion of relevant domestic laws and policies, the participation of the public can be actively strengthened, as well as the transparency and understandability of related policies and regulations. Regarding the reduction of cross-border emission source pollution, the willingness of the people in Taiwan to support is also significant, which can be used as a reference for future policy makers in international cooperation.
Subsequently, in the past, the construction of many energy-related facilities often caused environmental protection issues, making it difficult for the government to make decisions. Both proponents and opponents of the third natural gas station are very influential, so this study uses the willingness-to-pay (WTP) to show the strength of both opinions to help decision-making. The parameter models used in this study include the traditional Probit model and the structured Probit model. In addition, we also estimated a non-parametric model to obtain a reliable willingness-to-pay. The results revealed that (1) The willingness-to-pay for the construction of the third natural gas station is higher if the knowledge of the respondent comes from environmental protection groups and for respondents who understand the groin effect. The interviewees (male, younger and no special party preference) have a positive and significant value in protecting algae reefs. (2) Respondents are willing to pay with the increase in electricity bills. (3) The average WTP for the preferred construction of the third natural gas receiving station is USD 55.905 per person per year. The average WTP that prefers to protect algae reefs is US$36.160 per person per year. (4) There are 279 respondents who prefer to build a third natural gas station, and 789 supporters who prefer to protect algae reefs. It is suggested that the construction of the third natural gas should be carefully considered, or other energy options or energy-saving measures need to be found, and the results of this study can provide the government's reference in planning and decision-making.
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