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題名：風險性之行為決策分析與其願付價值之研究
作者：葉寶文
作者(外文)：YEH, POWEN
校院名稱：東吳大學
系所名稱：經濟學系
指導教授：傅祖壇
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2002
主題關鍵詞：酒後開車；願付價值；條件評估法；執法強度認知；單界二分選擇模型；雙界二分選擇模型；Drinking Driving；Willingness to Pay(WTP)；Contingent Valuation Method(CVM)；Enforcement Perception；Single-Bound Dichotomous Choice；Double-Bound Dichotomous Choice
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本篇論文是由三篇獨立的研究所組成，這三篇研究都是建構在個體效用理論之相關課題上，以應變數為間斷與質變數之計量模型，並使用台灣地區的原始調查資料，進行實證分析。第二章「酒後開車行為決策之研究」目的在於判定理性個人酒後開車行為是否受事後主觀認知之影響，該文實證結果驗證了Viscusi的「貝式學習過程」的存在，使得理性個人能夠利用環境資訊修正其事前信念，進而形成其自身事後認知－即執法機關取締酒後開車的執法強度認知與酒後開車發生意外事故的風險認知－對於理性個人酒後開車之行為決策，具有顯著的影響。第三章「酒後開車之願付風險價值研究」則利用假設市場評估法，進行酒後開車之願付風險價值估計，該文引入理性個人之執法強度認知概念，推導出具有取締強度認知之評估風險價值函數，進一步估計酒後開車的風險價值約在20000∼23600元之間。第四章「心臟血管疾病預防之願付價值研究」利用家戶資料－“台灣地區心臟血管疾病風險因子研究之調查(CVDFACTS)”資料，透過Becker家庭的代間移轉行為概念，採用假設市場評估法的Hanemann 單界及雙界二分選擇模型，建立三組改善慢性疾病病症－高血壓、高膽固醇症及糖尿病的評估價值函數，以進行降低罹患心臟血管疾病可能性之願付健康價值估計，該文估計得到改善高血壓、高膽固醇及糖尿病以降低罹患心臟血管疾病可能性的願付價格分別為5~6.7萬、4~6.6萬及5.1~6.7萬元。
This dissertation is composed of three individual researches. The three studies are based upon utility theory in microeconomics related issues. The dependent variables in the econometric models applied are discrete and qualitative variables. We use the primary survey data in Taiwan area to proceed with our empirical analysis.
In chapter 2, “The Study of Decision Making in Drinking Driving Behavior” deals with the topic that whether a rational individual will be affected by posterior subjective perception in his/her drinking driving behavior. The results prove the existence of Viscusi’s Bayesian Learning Process. This process enables the rational individual to make use of environmental information to modify his/her prior belief, and furthermore to form personal posterior perception─enforcement perception regarding the authority concerned arrests violators, and risk perception concerning car accident in drinking driving. Our study shows that these perceptions have significant influence upon a rational individual’s decision making in drink driving.
In chapter 3, “The Study of Risk-Taking for Willingness to Pay in Drinking Driving” touches upon the estimate of risk-taking for WTP in drinking driving by using CVM. We induct a risk valuation function with the concept of enforcement perception. The estimate for risk-taking for WTP ranges from NT$ 20000 to 23600.
As for “The Study of Willingness to Pay for Cardiovascular Disease Prevention” in chapter 4, we use household data of “CVDFACTS” and adopt the Hanemann’s single-bound and doubled-bound dichotomous choice models in CVM through the concept of Becker’s intergenerational transfer in family. This study constructs three valuation functions for improving the following chronic diseases: Hypertension, Hypercholesterol and Diabetes, to evaluate the WTP for reducing the possibilities of suffering from cardiovascular diseases. The results show the WTP for reducing the possibilities of above mentioned diseases range from NT$ 50000 to 67000, NT$ 40000 to 66000 and NT$ 51000 to 67000, respectively.
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