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題名：整合主成分分析與資料包絡分析–保證區間技術評估全球能源安全績效
作者：鍾永富
作者(外文)：CHUNG, YUNG-FU
校院名稱：國立臺北大學
系所名稱：企業管理學系
指導教授：吳泰熙
蔡顯童
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2021
主題關鍵詞：能源安全績效；主成分分析；資料包絡分析；保證區間；Energy security performance；Principal component analysis；Data envelopment analysis；Assurance region
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本文經由文獻探討，建構一個評量全球能源安全績效（energy security performance, ESP）的架構，此架構包含能源安全定義、能源安全六大構面，以及在這些構面下對應的18個能源安全指標。我們以主成分分析（principal component analysis, PCA）決定能源安全指標權重的先驗資訊（apriori information），作為資料包絡分析–保證區間（data envelopment analysis–assurance region, DEA-AR）上下界限的基礎。以雙重客觀方式賦權與複合指標成單一指數，得出全球125國、連續21年的能源安全績效排名。再依據這些能源安全績效排名變化結果，進行兩種集群分析：（1）能源安全績效安全度排名分群分析、（2）能源安全績效進退步/變動分群分析。以系統性的檢視與觀察各國能源安全的長期趨勢變化、比較各洲際別（continental）及主要經濟組織之間能源安全的差異。由研究結果看，若以洲際別來觀察，大洋洲與歐洲的能源安全績效較佳；美洲與亞洲表現次之；非洲的表現最不理想。若檢視21年的研究期間，各國能源安全績效進退步變化趨勢情形，我們發現歐洲、亞洲國家能源安全績效傾向進步趨勢；而非洲與美洲國家則偏向退步現象。以經濟組織國來看，亞太經濟合作組織（Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, APEC）與經濟合作暨發展組織（Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, OECD）的能源安全績效偏向較高排名；APEC、OECD、東南亞國家協會（The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN）的能源安全績效均偏向進步趨勢。若以國家別來看，瑞士在研究的21年期間，每年均為第一名；若同時觀察進退步趨勢與安全度的分群結果，可以發現，澳洲、英國、愛爾蘭等三個國家的能源安全績效不管在長期趨勢分布在最進步的群組，能源安全度也落在最佳的群組，其表現優良可足為其他國的標竿；反觀尼泊爾、厄利垂亞、貝南、剛果民主共和國、辛巴威、海地等國家，其能源安全績效長期以來處在最退步的趨勢，而且近期的能源安全度排名也落在最差的群組。
This paper constructed an analysis framework of energy security performance (ESP) by reviewing numerous literature and developed a tool to analyze the global energy security performance with 6 primary dimensions from the core definition of energy security and 18 indicators under those dimensions. We proposed principal component analysis (PCA) to obtain energy security apriori information for use as the foundation for upper and lower bounds of data envelopment analysis – assurance region (DEA-AR), by employing dual objective weighing and compositing into a single index to assess the energy security rankings of 125 countries spanning 21 years. From the results of the assessments, two types of cluster analyses were performed: (1) global ESP ranking results and (2) progression/regression trends of ESP Ranking. By using systematic observations and comparisons of the long-term energy security performance changes in continents and global economic organizations, we found that compared by continents, Oceania and Europe had the best performances followed by America and Asia. Africa had the worst performance in this category. By the trends of progression and regression, we found that countries in Europe and Asia exhibited progression, however, countries in America and Africa exhibited regression. Compared by economic organizations, Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) ranked higher in the energy security performances ranking, at the same time APEC, OECD, and The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) all showed progression. Compared by countries, Switzerland consistently ranked the best every year over the span of 21 years. If we take into consideration of progression and regression trends, we can see that Australia, United Kingdom, and Ireland all located at the best performing groups and the best progression trends of the energy security performances. These countries can obviously serve as benchmark for others. On the other hand, Nepal, Eritrea, Benin, Democratic Republic of Congo, Zimbabwe, and Haiti all continuously exhibited regression trends in energy security performance and their recent global energy security performance rankings all fell into the worst group.
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