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題名：運動彩券銷售關鍵成功因素系統動態學之研究
作者：蔡汶君
作者(外文)：Wen-Chun Tsai
校院名稱：國立臺灣科技大學
系所名稱：財務金融研究所
指導教授：劉代洋
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2021
主題關鍵詞：運動彩券；系統動態學；關鍵成功因素；創新擴散；Sports lottery；System dynamics；Key successful factors；Innovation diffusion
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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本研究起初研究影響運動彩券經銷商的因素。從策略管理的角度，進行內部主觀因素、內部客觀因素及外部環境進行探討。以臺灣作為個案，運用焦點團體訪談及用系統動態學做為方法論，構思整體性相互行為之因果關係。獎金支出比率高可能刺激運動彩券銷售量，但也可能影響發行機構及經銷商之利潤，因此研究結果可用於政府主管機關提出調整獎金支出比率之議題。根據本研究模擬結果，建議提高獎金支出比率，確實些微提升整體運動彩券銷售量但幅度不會太大，然而較高的獎金支出比率卻造成發行機構及經銷商的利潤減少甚至虧損。
因此，進一步分析影響運動彩券商品銷售收入的因素，以創新擴散理論(Diffusion of Innovation Theory)的角度，透過系統動態學進行量化分析及模擬，瞭解運動彩券銷售收入受到廣告效果及口碑效果影響。運動彩券公司的銷售金額受到許多因素影響，該因素之間具有環環相扣的特性，且變數彼此間具動態複雜性，因此，本研究透過創新擴散理論為基礎，使用系統動態學，以2018年國際足球總會世界盃(FIFA World Cup)每日銷售金額為樣本進行分析。透過系統動態學建立質化模式，描述變數間的互動，並找出系統的動態結構與行為模式，來建立臺灣運動彩券銷售系統模型，該模型可用以處理複雜的運動彩券銷售創新擴散問題。模型以四個面向：財務效果、廣告效果、創新擴散效果及口碑效果，模擬不同政策對每日累積銷售金額變化的影響。本研究模擬結果顯示，依據對銷售收入影響大小，由大至小依序排列為：每人每天投注金額、口碑效果中的接觸率及採用率、潛在投注者增加率、廣告效果中的廣告費用及廣告成功率，皆對銷售收入產生正面的影響。在世界盃足球賽的期間，廣告效果啟動運動彩券商品擴散，相較廣告效果，口碑效果對銷售收入有較大的力量。在相同情境及資源下，發行機構、臺灣運動彩券公司可優先改變每人每天投注金額及改變口碑效果。本研究模擬結果可作為運動彩券公司及相關利害關係人瞭解影響運動彩券銷售金額因素的參考及建議。
At first, the aim of this study was to identify the factors affecting sports lottery retailers’ sales, in the context of strategic management by system dynamics analysis. The internal management subjective factors, internal management objective factors, and external environment factors were determined from the perspective of strategic management. Taking Taiwan as the subject for a case study, this study employed focus-group interviews and system dynamics to establish the causal relationship of the overall interaction. In response to the topic of payout ratio proposed by the governmental authority, the results showed that a higher payout ratio would stimulate the sales amount of sports lottery tickets; however, such measure might affect the revenue of the issuer or retailers. In terms of the subject of payout ratio, which the governmental authority once discussed, the results showed that a higher payout ratio would have minor increase in sports lottery sales revenue, however, such a measure might affect the profits of the issuer or retailers. This is the first study revealed that the driving force behind supply was formed by the subjective and objective factors of the internal environment, whereas the driving force behind market demand was formed by external environmental factors from the perspectives of strategic management and strategic planning.
Moreover, the sales revenue of Taiwan Sports Lottery is affected by multiple factors. The factors are interlinked and the variables are dynamic and complex. Therefore, this research is based on the diffusion of innovation theory. Use system dynamics to analyze the daily sales amount of the 2018 FIFA World Cup (FIFA World Cup) as a sample. Establish a qualitative model through system dynamics, describe the interaction between variables, and find out the dynamic structure and behavioral model of the system to establish a model of Taiwan's sports lottery sales system, which can be used to deal with the complex innovation and diffusion of sports lottery sales. The model simulates the influence of different policies on the trend of system sales. The model is based on four aspects: financial effect, advertising effect, innovation diffusion effect and word-of-mouth effect, simulating the influence of different policies on the change of daily cumulative sales revenue amount. According to the simulation result of this study, it indicates that all the variables exert positive influence on the sales revenue. The magnitude of influence on sales, from large to small, they are betting among per person per day, reach frequency and adoption rate in word-to-mouth, potential bettors increase rate, advertisement expenditure and advertisement successful rate in the advertisement effects. During the FIFA World Cup 2018, advertising effects initiated the diffusion of sports lottery. Compared to the advertising effects, word-to-mouth effects were bigger. In the same situation and with same resources, Taiwan Sports Lottery, the operator could change the betting among per person per day and change the word-to-mouth advertising with priority. The simulation results of this study can be used as references and suggestions for sports lottery companies and related stakeholders to understand the factors that affect the sales amount of sports lottery tickets.
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