本研究運用 2008年總統選舉前的民意調查資料，分析包括台灣民眾台灣意識的深淺、兩岸經貿的利害、及中共動用武力的預期等因素，觀察其對總統選舉投票行為的影響。根據上述架構，本研究發現：台灣民眾的台灣意識與藍綠政黨認同，是影響其投票行為的主要認同因素，愈具備台灣意識與泛綠政黨的認同者，愈傾向支持民進黨的候選人。另方面，民眾對兩岸經貿的開放態度以及預期因此獲利的程度，也將反映為其對國民黨候選人的支持。換言之，理性與感性兩類因素，在上次選舉中均扮演相當關鍵的角色。不過，比較出乎意外的，有關宣布獨立是否引起武力相向，則未見顯著的影響。參照本研究與之前相關研究發現，無論泛綠政黨所凸顯的武力威脅與台灣認同，或是泛藍政黨強調的兩岸交流與經濟利害，都與中國大陸的政策回應有關。因此，對岸如何緩和兩岸緊張，促進合作互惠，對兩岸和平穩定與台灣民主發展，都將至關緊要。

Based on the analysis of survey data collected on the eve of Taiwan’s 2008 presidential election, our study seeks to clarify the effects of the following factors on the island citizens’ voting behavior: (1)Taiwanese identity, (2)expected benefits from cross-Strait economic exchanges, and (3)the perceived likelihood of China’s use of military force. The findings show that, in addition to party identification, both Taiwanese identity and expected economic benefits have important effects on the islanders’ vote choices. Unexpectedly, China’s military threats played an insignificant role in voters’ decisions. Because Taiwanese identity and expected economic benefits are at the center of the political discourse on cross-Strait relations, future interactions between Taiwan and China will continue to play a significant role in the island’s politics.