臺灣於2002年加入世界貿易組織(WTO)後逐年階段性調降漁產品之進口關稅，特別是由大陸地區進口的低價漁業產品將直接衝擊到國內漁產品市場，對臺灣漁業部門將面臨到重大的挑戰。本研究應用數學規劃方法，參酌Chiang(2005)建構之臺灣漁業部門均衡模型，比較大陸地區與臺灣地區漁產品價格，模擬若不排除大陸漁產品進口下對台灣漁業部門的影響。因國產品與進口品間不完全替代的關係，因此本研究並採用1991年1月至2001年10月進口價量與國內魚市場拍賣月別價格資料，估計漁產品的進口需求彈性及進口品與國產品價量替代彈性，藉以評估關稅調降及大陸低價進口漁產品對臺灣漁業部門的衝擊。實證結果顯示2004年漁業總產量預計將減少14,770公噸，總產值約減少31億元，其中養殖漁業產量將減少14,760公噸，產值預估將減少27.68億元，所受到的衝擊最大。此外，以40種漁產品所得出之模擬結果，也顯示出以養殖魚類及養殖蝦貝類所受之衝擊較大。整體而言，在考慮漁產品的進口價量替代彈性後，國內市場價格下降幅度小於進口品價格下降的幅度。面對大陸低價漁產品的競爭，國內漁業部門需致力提升國產漁產品品質，強調產品的差異性，以與進口品區隔，進而提高產業競爭力。

Before Taiwan became the 144th member of the WTO in 2002, its fishery sector was protected by high import tariffs. As a member of the WTO, Taiwan has to phase out the import tariffs on fishery imports and to allow imports of low-priced fishery products from China. In this study, import price-quantity substitution elasticities are estimated using monthly data on import quantities and prices, and domestic auction prices from the period from January 1991 through October 2001. These substitution elasticity estimates were used to examine the impacts of tariff reductions on production, cost, labor, domestic prices, producer and consumers welfare in 2004. The impact of imports of the low-priced fishery products from China on domestic fishery were also evaluated using a fishery sector general equilibrium model. Compared to 2001, empirical results show that, as a result of reduced import duty, the total production of Taiwan's fishery sector would decreased by 14,770 MT or NT $3.1 billion by 2004. The aquaculture sector had to bear the heaviest losses, its production would decrease by 14,760 MT or NT $2.768 billion. Consequently, aquaculture farming in Taiwan would not be profitable any longer. In order to find areas in which the industry can operate profitably and compete with the Chinese imports, results show that Taiwan's fishery industry needs to focus on the high-quality and high-price fishery products and differentiate these fishery products from the cheap imports from China.