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題名:「戰略模糊」、「戰略明確」或「雙重明確」:美國預防臺海危機的政策辯論
書刊名:遠景基金會季刊
作者:林正義 引用關係
作者(外文):Lin, Cheng-yi
出版日期:2007
卷期:8:1
頁次:頁1-51
主題關鍵詞:戰略模糊戰略明確雙重明確臺海危機美國Strategic ambiguityStrategic clarityDouble clarityTaiwan strait crisisU.S.
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(10) 博士論文(2) 專書(1) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:10
  • 共同引用共同引用:11
  • 點閱點閱:60
在布希總統提到將「使用一切辦法」協助臺灣防衛之後,各方專家開始辯論美國政府如何預防臺海危機,是否放棄其長期以來所遵行的「戰略模糊」政策?在布希總統的說話之前,美國智庫針對美國如何預防中國在臺灣海峽使用武力,曾提出不同的建議。 第一種觀點,建議美國政府採取「戰略模糊」的立場。美國智庫認為在沒有特定的臺海危機情境之下,指出美國在何種情況會介入或不會介入臺海危機,將不必要地使一方更挑釁或激怒另外一方。第二種觀點,主張在臺海危機發生之前,美國應該使中國儘早了解美國一定會採取軍事干預的立場,使中國不致升高緊張。 本文檢閱「戰略明確」與「戰略模糊」的異同,以及它們所代表的決策者與智庫。近年來,布希政府傾向以「雙重明確」取代「戰略明確」的立場。這意味在臺灣未挑釁之下遭攻擊時,美國將協助臺灣防衛,但同時也向北京作出美國不支持臺獨的政治再保證。
Shortly after President George W. Bush stated in interviews that the U.S. would do “whatever it took” to help Taiwan defend itself, pundits began to debate whether the U .S. government was indeed trying to abandon its long-held “strategic ambiguity” positioning of preventing a Taiwan Strait crisis. Even prior to Bush's “strategic clarity” remarks, U.S. think tanks have already recommended differing positions as to which policies the U.S. should adopt to respond against the PRC's military options in the Taiwan Strait. The first position suggested that the U.S. government should maintain “strategic ambiguity” as far as U.S. actions is concerned. It argued that in the absence of a specific crisis, detailing the circumstances under which the U.S. would intervene in the Taiwan Straits “could needlessly embolden or antagonize one side or the other.” The second position stated that the U.S. will help Taiwan defend itself in the event of a Chinese attack, arguing that its intentions must be clearly made known before the event of an actual Taiwan Strait crisis for the Chinese to refrain from deepening tensions or provoking escalations. This article examines the arguments behind the two schools of thoughts and identifies the U.S. policy makers and think tanks in each camp. In recent years, some have argued that the Bush administration is giving up “strategic clarity” in favor of “double clarity.” This article also examines whether the U.S. defense commitment to Taiwan in an unprovoked attack is compatible with Washington's continuing political reassurance to Beijing on the grounds that it is not supportive of Taiwanese independence.
期刊論文
1.Christensen, Thomas J.(2002)。The Contemporary Security Dilemma: Deterring a Taiwan Conflict。The Washington Quarterly,25(4),7-21。  new window
2.Nathan, Andrew J.(2000)。What's Wrong with American Taiwan Policy。The Washington Quarterly,23(2),93-106。  new window
3.Zhongqi, Pan(2003)。US Taiwan Policy of Strategic Ambiguity: a dilemma of deterrence。Journal of Contemporary China,12(35),387-407。  new window
4.楊永明(19981200)。從戰略模糊到三不政策:美國對臺政策的轉變。理論與政策,12(4)=48,87-106。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.Lieberthal, Kenneth(2005)。Preventing a War over Taiwan。Foreign Affairs,84(2),53-63。  new window
6.羅致政(1996)。美國戰略性模糊政策對兩岸互動的影響。東吳政治學報,6,175-202。new window  延伸查詢new window
7.Lord, Winston(19960205)。The United States and the Security of Taiwan。U.S. Department of State Dispatch,7(6)。  new window
8.Kastner, Scott L.(2006)。Ambiguity, Economic Interdependence, and the U.S. Strategic Dilemma in the Taiwan Strait。Journal of Contemporary China,15(49),651-669。  new window
9.Yang, Phillip(2006)。Doubly Dualistic Dilemma: U.S. Strategies towards China and Taiwan。International Relations of the Asia-Pacific,6(2),209-225。  new window
10.Buszynski, Leszek(2002)。Realism, Institutionalism, and Philippine Security。Asian Survey,42(3),483-501。  new window
11.Halloran, Richard(2003)。Taiwan。Parameters: U.S. Army War College Quarterly,33(1),22-34。  new window
12.Roy, Denny(2002)。Taiwan's 2001 Elections: Chen up, KMT Down, PRC Disappointed。Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies,1(2),1-4。  new window
會議論文
1.Wang, T. Y.(1996)。Strategic Ambiguity: An Outmoded Relic of U.S. Foreign Policy。0。  new window
圖書
1.Garver, J.(1997)。Face Off: China, the United States, and Taiwan's Democratization。Seattle, WA:University of Washington Press。  new window
2.Perry, W. J.、Carter, A. B.(1999)。Preventive Defense: A New Security Strategy for America。Washington, D.C.:Brookings Institute Press。  new window
3.中國現代國際關係研究所(2002)。國際戰略與安全形勢評估:2001-2002。北京:時事出版社。  延伸查詢new window
4.Suettinger, R. L.、Suettinger, Robert L.(2003)。Beyond Tiananmen: The Politics of U.S.-China Relations, 1989-2000。Beyond Tiananmen: The Politics of U.S.-China Relations, 1989-2000。Washington, D.C.:Brookings Institution Press。  new window
5.Mann, James H.(1999)。About Face: A History of America's Curious Relationship with China, from Nixon to Clinton。New York, NY:Alfred A. Knopf。  new window
6.陳明(2001)。布希新政府之兩岸政策走向。財團法人兩岸交流遠景基金會。  延伸查詢new window
7.Bush, Richard C.(2005)。Untying the Knot: Making Peace in the Taiwan Strait。Washington, DC:Brookings Institution Press。  new window
8.閻學通、孫學峰(2005)。中國崛起及其戰略。北京大學出版社。  延伸查詢new window
9.江澤民(2006)。江澤民文選。北京市:人民出版社。  延伸查詢new window
10.Rankin, Karl Lott(1964)。China Assignment。University of Washington Press。  new window
11.EIsenhower, Dwight D.(1963)。The White House Years: Mandate for Change 1953-1956。Doubleday。  new window
12.李登輝、鄒景雯(2001)。李登輝執政告白實錄。印刻出版社。  延伸查詢new window
13.Christopher, Warren(1998)。In the Stream of History。Stanford, CA:Stanford University Press。  new window
14.丁庭宇(1988)。中美斷交十週年-民眾看中美關係。中美斷交十週年-民眾看中美關係。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
15.The Asia Foundation(2001)。America's Role in Asia: American Views。America's Role in Asia: American Views。San Francisco, CA。  new window
16.Burles, Mark、Shulsky, Abram N.(2000)。Patterns in China's Use of Force。Patterns in China's Use of Force。Santa Monica, CA。  new window
17.Carlucci, Frank、Hunter, Robert、Khalilzad, Zalmay(2000)。Taking Charge: A Bipartisan Report to the President Elect on Foreign Policy and National Security。Taking Charge: A Bipartisan Report to the President Elect on Foreign Policy and National Security。Santa Monica, CA。  new window
18.Romberg, Alan D.(2003)。Rein in at the Brink of the Precipice。Rein in at the Brink of the Precipice。Washington, DC。  new window
19.Office of the Secretary of Defense(2006)。Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2006。Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2006。Washington, DC。  new window
20.U. S. Department of Defense、Department of Defense(2006)。Quadrennial Defense Review Report。Quadrennial Defense Review Report。Washington, DC。  new window
21.Kan, Shirley A.(2006)。Taiwan: Major U.S. Arms Sales since 1990。Taiwan: Major U.S. Arms Sales since 1990。Washington, DC。  new window
其他
1.Dole, Bob(1996)。America and Asia: Restoring U.S. Leadership in the Pacific,0。  new window
2.Benson, Brett V.,牛銘實(2000)。Comprehending Strategic Ambiguity: U.S. Policy toward Taiwan Security,0。  new window
3.Zagoria, Donald S.(2000)。Cross-Strait Relations: Breaking the Impasse,0。  new window
4.Marshall, Tyler(2001)。Taiwan Military Officers' Visit to Washington Breaks Ground,0。  new window
5.呂秀蓮(2002)。攜手經營柔性太平洋-臺日論壇2002年臺北會議開幕致詞,0。  延伸查詢new window
6.Bush, Richard C.(2002)。American Ambiguity on Taiwan's Sovereignty Increases the Island's Safety,0。  new window
7.Cossa, Ralph A.(2002)。No Surprises?,0。  new window
8.Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs(2005)。Background Note: Taiwan,0。  new window
9.Rice, Condoleezza(2005)。Remarks to the Press in China,0。  new window
10.Burns, Nicholas(2005)。The National Security and Foreign Policy Implications for the United States of Arms Exports to the People's Republic of China by Member States of the European Union,0。  new window
11.(2006)。我國民眾對布胡會之看法,0。  延伸查詢new window
12.Casey, Tom(2006)。Daily Press Briefing,0。  new window
13.Kerry, John F.。American Foreign Policy & a Defense Second to None,0。  new window
圖書論文
1.Tucker, Nancy Bernkopf(2005)。Strategic Ambiguity or Strategic Clarity?。Dangerous Strait: The U.S.-Taiwan-China Crisis。New York:Columbia University Press。  new window
2.Shinn, James(1996)。Conditional Engagement with China。Weaving the Net: Conditional Engagement with China。New York, NY:Council on Foreign Relations Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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