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題名:全球化、區域整合與中國崛起的條件
書刊名:思與言
作者:蔡宏政
作者(外文):Tsai, Hung-jeng
出版日期:2007
卷期:45:2
頁次:頁13-59
主題關鍵詞:全球化美元本位東亞區域性美元循環產能過剩GlobalizationDollar standardsEast Asian regionalityDollar cycleOverproduction
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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由於中國的規模巨大,它在世界經濟結構中的浮沈將直接改變資本主義世界體系的資源配置,因此中國是否崛起必須放置於世界經濟與權力結構的可能改變來評估。在這篇論文中,我們論證中國的崛起是植根於「全球化」的結構轉型,然而,與一般主流的解釋不同,我們認為,把全球化當成全球要素價格均等化是一項迷思,推動全球化現象的核心動力必須從美元金本位轉變為後來的美元本位來理解。美元金本位賦于了美國發行超過其黃金準備的美元,美元本位則更進一步地擴大美國從美元作為世界貨幣的鑄幣利得(seigniorage),這一金融優勢使美國可以用信用賒欠的方式使用了遠超過其國內生產力的全球物資,並使得全球的經濟增長建立在美國市場的增長上。美元本位在1980年代的危機一方面造成拉丁美洲國家進口替代工業化的「結構調整」,另一方面則推動了東亞區域產業分工的轉型,使得中國接受大量依賴美國市場的出口導向外資。雖然出口導向工業化帶來中國GDP與外匯的快速擴大,我們論證,中國的崛起卻必須以走出「美元循環」為前提,要達到這一目標,中國除了必須進行產業升級外,還需要進行更深層的社會與政治改革以擴大內需規模。
Evaluation on the rise of China should be connected with the potential structural transformation of world economy and power because China’s large size will directly change resource relocation of the world. In This paper, we argue that China’s rising is rooted in the structural Transformation of ‘globalization’. While mainstream theory interprets globalization as the consequence of factor-price equalization, we argue that dollar standard is the main dynamics for globalization as we have seen today. Dollar standard empowers the U.S. financial muscle by which global economic growth is established on the growth of the US market. The dollar crisis during the first half of the 1980s induced the structural adjustment of Latin America on the one hand; it also pushed regional industrial division of labor of East Asia on the other. This structural transformation channels huge export-oriented capital into China and critically contributes to China’s significant development since then. We argue, nevertheless, that China’s rising has to rely on further industrial upgrade de and domestic market more than that of the U.S. To achieve this long-term goal, China must carry out deeper social and political reform in order to transform savings into consumption.
期刊論文
1.Ruggie, John Gerard(1982)。International regimes, transactions, and change: embedded liberalism in the postwar economic order。International Organization,36(2),379-415。  new window
2.Kojima, Kiyoshi(1986)。Japanese-Style Direct Foreign Investment。Japanese Economic Studies,14,61-96。  new window
3.Singer, Hans Wolfgang(1950)。The Distribution of Gains between Investing and Borrowing Countries。American Economic Review,40(2),473-485。  new window
圖書
1.大前研一、趙佳誼、劉錦秀、黃碧君(2003)。中華聯邦。台北:商周出版社。  延伸查詢new window
2.Arrighi, Giovanni(1994)。The Long Twentieth Century: Money, Power, and the Origins of Our Times。Verso。  new window
3.Rapley, John(1996)。Understanding Development: Theory and Practice in the Third World。Boulder, Colo:Lynne Rienner Publishers。  new window
4.Walters, Robert S.、Blake, David H.(1992)。The Politics of Global Economic Relations。Englewood Cliffs, NJ:Prentice Hall。  new window
5.Lardy, Nicholas R.(2002)。Integrating China into the Global Economy。Washington, DC:Brooking Institution Press。  new window
6.Held, David、McGrew, A. G.、Goldblatt, D.、Perraton, J.(1999)。Global Transformation: Politics, Economics and Culture。Cambridge:Standford University Press。  new window
7.Ohmae, K.(1995)。The End of the Nation State: the Rise of Regional Economies。New York:The Free Press。  new window
8.Kwan, C. H.(1994)。Economic Interdependence in the Asia-Pacific Region: Toward a Yen Block。New York, NY:Routledge。  new window
9.Lardy, Nicholas R.(1998)。China’s Unfinished Economic Revolution。Washington, D.C.:Brookings Institution Press。  new window
10.Hirst, Paul、Thompson, Grahame(1999)。Globalization in Question: The International Economy and the Possibilities of Governance。Polity。  new window
11.Prebisch, Raul(1950)。The Economic Development of Latin America and Its Principal Problems。New York, NY:United Nations Press。  new window
12.Gilpin, Robert、Gilpin, Jean M.(1987)。The Political Economy of International Relations。Princeton University Press。  new window
其他
1.中國國家統計局(2005)。中國統計年鑑,北京:中國統計出版社。  延伸查詢new window
2.李察.鄧肯(Duncan, Richard)、李璞良譯(2004)。美元大崩壞/深度解讀「美元危機」的成因、威脅與對策,臺北:早安出版社。  延伸查詢new window
3.Borden, William S.(1984)。The Pacific Alliance: United States Foreign Economic Policy and Japanese Trade Recovery, 1947-1955,Madison:the University of Wisconsin Press。  new window
4.Gilpin, Robert(2000)。The Challenge of Global Capitalism,Princeton:Princeton University Press。  new window
5.Gwynne, Robert N. ; Kay, Cristobal(1999)。Latin America Transformed: Globalization and Modernity,London:Arnold。  new window
6.Lardy, Nicholas R.(1987)。Economic Recovery and the 1st Five-Year Plan。  new window
7.McMichael, Philip(2000)。Development and Social Change: A Global Perspective. 2nd ed.,Thousand Oaks:Pine Forge Press。  new window
8.Pine Forge Press.(1961)。Balanced and Unbalanced Growth,Cambridge:Harvard University Press。  new window
9.OECD(2002)。China in the World Economy: the Domestic Policy Challenges \=世界經濟中的中國:國內政策的挑戰,OECD Publications。  延伸查詢new window
10.OECD \ 胡鞍鋼、胡宇光主譯(2004)。世界經濟中的中國:國內政策的挑戰 \=China in the World Economy: the Domestic Policy Challenges,北京:清華大學。  延伸查詢new window
11.Selden, Mark(1997)。China, Japan, and the Regional Political Economy of East Asia, 1945-1995,Ithaca:Cornell University Press。  new window
12.United Nations Conference on Trade and Development(2005)。World Investment Report,New York and Geneva:United Nation Publications。  new window
 
 
 
 
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