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題名:臺指現貨、臺指期貨與摩根臺指期貨價量關係之探討--GARCH模型之應用
書刊名:華人經濟研究
作者:賴鈺城 引用關係張純明 引用關係廖敏齡黃景琳
出版日期:2008
卷期:6:2
頁次:頁18-34
主題關鍵詞:價量關係不對稱效果GARCHPrice-volumeAsymmetric effect
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(1) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:85
  • 點閱點閱:83
本研究利用雙量GARCH模型研究分析台灣加權股價指數、台股指數期貨與摩根台指期貨三變數間之關連性,實證結果發現,現貨與期貨市場之報酬皆存在不對稱效果,且負向未預期報酬衝擊大於正向未預期報酬衝擊。現貨市場、期貨市場與摩台指期貨三個市場均具有風險貼水效果,表示現貨與期貨市場投資者屬於風險規避者,當市場風險上升時,會希望報酬隨之增加,並進一步利用交易量分析,發現現貨與期貨市場的交易量對波動性具有顯著影響,且未預期交易量對波動性的影響高於預期交易量。在比較現貨與台拍期貨與現貨與摩台拉斯貨兩組模型中,發現現貨與台指期貨的模型解釋效果優於現貨與摩台指期貨的模型。
This paper investigates price-volume relationship among Taiwan Stock Index (TS), Taiwan Stock Index Futures (TF), and MSCI Taiwan Stock Index Futures (MF), using bivariate GARCH model. The empirical results indicate that asymmetric effects are existed in spot and future markets and the negative impact level is greater than positive impact level. All three markets have risk premium effects and investors require more premium when market risk increases. We also add volume to make further analysis and find that volume has inf1uence on volatility on both spot and future markets; and unexpected trading volume has more inf1uence on volatility than expected trading volume. Comparing both TS v.s TF and TS v.s MF, we find TS v.s TF has better explanation than TS v.s MF.
期刊論文
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2.Chan, K. C.、Karolyi, G. A.(1991)。Intraday Volatility in the Stock Index and Stock Index Future Markets。Review of Financial Studies,4(4),657-684。  new window
3.John, B.、Gleb, S.、Charles, S.(2001)。The Effect of Futures Market Volume on Spot Marker Volatility。Journal of Business Finance,28,799-819。  new window
4.Karpoff, J. M.(1987)。A Relation between Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey。Journal of Financial Quantitative Analysis,22,109-126。  new window
5.林華德、王甡(19951000)。臺灣股市成交量對股價波動的影響1986-1994--GARCH修正模型的應用。企銀季刊,19(2),40-58。  延伸查詢new window
6.Bessembinder, H.、Seguin, P.(1992)。Futures Trading Activity and Stock Return Volatility。Journal of Finance,51,169-204。  new window
7.Koutomos, G.、Tucker, M.(1996)。Temporal Relationship and Dynamic Interactions between Spot and Futures Stock Market。Journal of Futures Markets,16(1),55-69。  new window
8.葉銀華(19911100)。臺灣股票市場成交量與股價關係之實證研究--轉換函數模式。臺北市銀月刊,22(11)=266,57-70。  延伸查詢new window
9.Antoniou, Antonios、Holmes, Phil(1995)。Futures Trading, Information and Spot Price Volatility: Evidence for the FTSE-100 Stock Index Futures Contract Using GARCH。Journal of Banking & Finance,19(1),117-129。  new window
10.Lamoureux, C. G.、Lastrapes, W. D.(1994)。Endogenous Trading Volume and Momentum in Stock-Return Volatility。Journal of Business and Economic Statistics,12(2),253-260。  new window
11.Bachman, D.、Choi, J. J.、Jeon, B. N.、Kopecky, K. J.(1996)。Common Factors in International Stock Prices : Evidence from A Cointegration Study。International Review of Financial Analysis,5,39-53。  new window
12.黃玉娟、徐守德(19970000)。臺股指數現貨與期貨市場價格動態關聯性之研究。證券市場發展,9(3)=35,1-28。new window  延伸查詢new window
13.Kawaller, I. G.、Koch, P. D.、Koch, T. W.(1987)。The Temporal Price Relationship between S&P 500 Futures and S&P Index。Journal of Finance,42(5),1309-1329。  new window
14.葉銀華、蔡麗茹(20000900)。不同波動期間之期望報酬與風險關係的實證研究--不對稱GARCH-M模型之應用。輔仁管理評論,7(2),161-179。new window  延伸查詢new window
15.Stoll, Hans R.、Whaley, Robert E.(1990)。The Dynamics of Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Returns。Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,25(4),441-468。  new window
16.Schwert, G. William(1990)。Stock Volatility and the Crash of '87。Review of Financial Studies,3(1),77-102。  new window
17.Rogalski, R. J.(1978)。The dependence of prices and volume。Review of Economics and Statistics,60(2),268-274。  new window
18.Ying, C. C.(1966)。Stock market prices and volumes of sales。Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society,34(3),676-685。  new window
19.王甡(19950100)。報酬衝擊對條件波動所造成之不對稱效果--臺灣股票市場之實證分析。證券市場發展,7(1)=25,125-161。new window  延伸查詢new window
20.Lamoureux, C. G.、Lastrapes, W. D.(1990)。Heteroskedasticity in Stock Return Data: Volume versus GARCH Effects。The Journal of Finance,45(1),221-229。  new window
21.Engle, Robert F.、Ng, Victor K.(1993)。Measuring and testing the impact of news on volatility。The Journal of Finance,48(5),1749-1778。  new window
22.Blume, Lawrence、Easley, David、O'Hara, Maureen(1994)。Market Statistics and Technical Analysis: The Role of Volume。The Journal of Finance,49(1),153-181。  new window
23.Bollerslev, Tim(1986)。Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity。Journal of Econometrics,31(3),307-327。  new window
24.Campbell, John Y.、Hentschel, Ludger(1992)。No News is Good News: An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns。Journal of Financial Economics,31(3),281-318。  new window
25.Engle, Robert F.(1982)。Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation。Econometrica,50(4),987-1008。  new window
26.Glosten, Lawrence R.、Jagannathan, Ravi、Runkle, David E.(1993)。On the Relation Between the Expected Value and the Volatility on the Nominal Excess Returns on Stocks。Journal of Finance,48(5),1779-1801。  new window
會議論文
1.Black, F.(1976)。Studies of Stock Markets Volatility Changes。American Statistical Association, Business and Economics Statistics Section,177-181。  new window
學位論文
1.林逸華(2004)。報酬波動不對稱性之研究--以臺灣股價指數期貨市場為例(碩士論文)。雲林科技大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.蔡美華(1999)。台股指數期貨與現貨報酬波動性關係之研究(碩士論文)。東吳大學。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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