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題名:應用存活分析法於機車紅燈怠速熄火行為之研究
書刊名:運輸計劃
作者:吳健生蕭羽媛蘇殷甲
作者(外文):Wu, Jiann-shengHsiao, Yu-yuanSu, Yin-chia
出版日期:2011
卷期:40:2
頁次:頁161-183
主題關鍵詞:節能減碳怠速熄火存活分析法Cox等比例危險模式相對風險Energy saving and carbon reductionIdling stopSurvival analysisCox proportional hazard modelRelative risk
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(2) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:1
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:51
針對全球暖化及節能減碳議題,本研究透過問卷方式調查機車騎士紅 燈怠速熄火行為之意願及其影響因素,並利用存活分析法中之Cox 等比例 危險模式,構建兩者之關係。研究結果顯示,全球暖化認知、紅燈怠速熄 火降低污染意願、執法規範信念、熄火依從信念、年齡及家庭人數等6 個 變數,會顯著影響機車騎士紅燈怠速熄火之意願。整體而言,解釋變數與 相對風險呈正向走勢。對環境認知或認同感愈強烈者,其相對風險亦愈高, 亦即紅燈怠速熄火之意願亦愈高。然就年齡變數而言,每增長1 歲,相對 風險卻降低1%,顯示年紀愈輕,反而愈具有環保意識,愈能接受怠速熄火 節能減碳之觀念。經進一步分析發現,若能提升大眾的環境認知,則全體機車騎士當中將會增加2.545%至14.618%願意配合紅燈怠速時熄火。
Aiming at the issues of global warming as well as energy saving and carbon reduction, we, in this study, investigate motorcyclists’ will to turn off the engine at a red light, and its influence factors by means of a questionnaire. Using the Cox proportional hazard model in survival analysis, we further modeled the relationship between them. The result shows that motorcyclists’ behavior of not idling at a red light is significantly influenced by six variables: global warming awareness, willingness to reduce air pollution by not idling, belief of ruling a non-idling stop by enforcement, belief of not idling by following other motorcyclists, age, and family population. As a whole, there appears to be a positive trend between relative risk and variables. The stronger the recognition of the environment, the higher the relative risk is, i.e. the higher the will to turn off the engine at a red light is. Nevertheless, the relative risk decreases by 1% as the age increases by 1 year. It depicts that the younger the motorcyclist is, the more he will accept the concept of not idling to save energy and reduce carbon. After further investigation, we find that the will to not idle will totally increase from 2.545% to 14.618%, if the recognition of environment can be escalated.
期刊論文
1.Cox, D. R.(1972)。Regression models and life-tables (with discussion)。Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B: Methodological,34,187-220。  new window
2.葉祖宏(2005)。存活分析法應用於機車持有年限之研究。運輸計劃季刊,34(3),443-468。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.Akerstedt, T.、Fredlund, P.、Gillberg, M.、Jansson, B.(2002)。A Prospective Study of Fatal Occupational Accidents Relationship to Sleeping Difficulties and Occupational Factors。Journal of Sleep Research,11,69-71。  new window
4.Tiwari, G.、Bangdiwala, S.、Saraswat, A.、Gaurav, S.(2007)。Survival Analysis: Pedestrian Risk Exposure at Signalized Intersections。Transportation Research Part F,10,77-89。  new window
會議論文
1.莊志偉(2006)。柴油小客車節能效率以及汽機車Idling Stop 技術評估研究。  延伸查詢new window
2.吳健生(1996)。改善都市環境品質所可採行之交通措施17-19。  延伸查詢new window
3.張新立、吳舜丞、賴允勻(2000)。以存活理論探討影響機車失竊因素之研究31-40。  延伸查詢new window
4.Schönfelder, S.、Axhausen, K. W.(2000)。Modelling the Rhythms of Travel Using Survival Analysis。  new window
研究報告
1.FORMOSUN 先進動力研究中心(2008)。車輛怠速測試計劃結果報告。  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.洪金火(2007)。機車等停對空氣污染排放之影響研究。朝陽科技大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Cox, D. R.、Oakes, D.(1984)。Analysis of Survival Data。The Chapman and Hall Press。  new window
其他
1.中華民國交通部官方網頁(2009)。交通統計, 主要國家交通統計比較,http://www.motc.gov.tw/mocwebGIP/wSite/ct?xItem=4881&ctNode=169&mp=1。  延伸查詢new window
2.交通部運輸研究所(2006)。運輸部門能源節約及溫室氣體減量潛力評估與因應策略規劃。  延伸查詢new window
3.新竹市政府(2008)。本市轄區內機動車輛惰轉超過3 分鐘未熄火為空氣污染行為。  延伸查詢new window
4.臺中市政府(2007)。機動車輛惰轉 (怠速運轉) 超過3 分鐘未熄火為空氣污染行為。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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