在本文中，作者以多項對數成敗比模型（ multinomial logit model ）來解釋臺
灣 1996 年總統選舉中選民的投票抉擇。
整體而言，在這次選舉中，選民的政黨認同以及他對三位主要候選人的評價等兩項因素，在
其決定投票給哪一位候選人時，扮演了重要的角色。當時的政治氣候有利於李登輝總統，較
諸其他候選人，他在候選人的評價上，最受選民青睞。此外，認同國民黨者又遠較民進黨與
新黨多。而維持臺灣經濟的繁榮以及獲得中間選民的支持，也是李登輝總統獲勝的原因。彭
明敏先生以及林洋港先生則獲得較高教育程度者以及認為過去一年國家整體經濟狀況變壞者
的支持。在選民的族群認同上，認同自己是臺灣人者給彭明敏先生較多的支持。不過，林洋
港先生則並未吸引太多認同中國的選民之選票。在「社會福利比較重要還是經濟發展比較重
要」的議題上，當選民認為「社會福利」比較重要時，他會較支持彭明敏先生。而在「大幅
改革比較重要還是維持現狀比較重要」的議題上，彭明敏先生則獲得主張「大幅改革」者較
多的支持。

　　　　　In this paper, I use a multinomial logit model to explain how voters
decided their votes in the 1996 Presidential election in Taiwan.
Generally, a voter's party identification and evaluation toward three major
candidates played important roles on his or her vote choice in this election.
The political climate, popularity among the four candidates and the distribution
of partisans, favored President Lee Teng-hui. His maintaining economic
prosperity and attraction to those middle-of-the-road voters also helped him to
win this election. Both Mr. Peng Ming-min and Lin Yang-kang got their support
from those with higher education and with the feeling of the national economy
being worse. As to voters' ethnic identity, people identifying themselves as
Taiwanese inclined to support Mr. Peng. However, Mr. Lin did not gain advantage
from those whom with Chinese identity. On the "social welfare v. economic
development" issue, respondents with being closer to "social welfare" stances
tended to support Mr. Peng. On the "reform v. status quo" issue, Mr. Peng's
supporters cane from those whose stances being closer to "reform."