中國承諾將于2030年左右使單位國內生產總值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降60%—65%,排放總量達到峰值并爭取盡早實現。我國目前的碳排放主要來自工業、交通運輸業和建筑業,其中建筑業碳排放約40%,所占比重最大,而高達550億m2的存量住宅能耗和排放是建筑業碳排放的主力。住宅建筑節能是關系到我國建筑業節能減排目標能否順利實現的重要因素,是我國節能減排工作的重要領域。構建一個可用于衡量住宅建筑節能對資源環境及經濟發展影響的可計算模型是推動住宅建筑節能工作的重要基礎。本文嘗試以CGE標準模型為基礎,依次對住宅建筑生產模塊、污染排放模塊、節能住宅建筑模塊、動態模塊和環境福利模塊進行詳細構建說明。在四方面對標準模型進行擴展:第一,將生產要素擴展為資本、勞動和能源要素束,能源要素束被深化分解為清潔能源與非清潔能源束,然后再予深化細化;第二,依據差異的貿易伙伴將進出口細化為差異的國家和地區;第三,將建筑污染排放作為一個特殊部門,建立建筑污染排放模塊,納入到CGE模型中,并將污染要素納入到效應函數中;第四,依據資本增長模型,建立動態模塊。通過將住宅建筑節能作為變量擴展到標準CGE模型的方法,構建了住宅建筑節能CGE擴展模型。借助該擴展模型,可以研究非節能建筑約束、外部節能建筑與經濟增長之間的內在關系,進而破解非節能建筑約束、外部節能建筑與住宅建筑節能快速發展之間難以協調的矛盾。在本文研究成果的基礎上,可進一步建立相應的社會核算矩陣(SAM),并對各種函數的參數估計和敏感性檢驗進行實證分析。

China promised to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to 60%-65% per unit of gross domestic product( GDP) in 2005,and get the top point of emissions as soon as possible. China’s carbon dioxide emissions mainly came from the industrial,transportation and construction industry,and the construction industry’s emission is about 40%,the largest proportion of all emissions. Residential building energy conservation is an important factor of smoothly achieving Chinese construction industry energy-saving emission reduction targets,and energy saving of residential buildings is an important area of energy conservation and emission reduction in China. Building a computable model to measure the impact of energy efficiency on the resource environment and economic development of residential buildings is an important basis for promoting energy conservation in residential buildings. Based on the standard CGE model,the authors give a detailed description of residential building production model,pollution discharge model,energy-saving residential building model,dynamic model and environmental welfare model. We try to extend the CGE standard model from four aspects: first,extending production factor into capital,labor and energy elements based on the standard CGE model,and decomposing energy factor bundle into clean energy and non-clean energy beam; second,elaborating the import and export partners into the import and export of different countries and regions. Third, through transferring building pollution emissions as a special department, merging the establishment of building pollution emission module into the CGE model,and incorporating the pollution elements into the effective function. Fourth,establishing the dynamic modules according to the capital growth model. CGE model of residential building energy saving is constructed by extending the energy saving of residential buildings as a variable to the standard CGE model. With this extension model,it can be used to study the inherent relationships between non-energy saving building constraints,external energy saving buildings and economic growth,and then can break the contradiction between non-energy saving building constraints,the rapid development of energy saving buildings and residential buildings. Base on the research results,the corresponding social accounting matrix( SAM) will be established,and empirically analyzed the parameters estimation and sensitivity test of various functions.