人口衰退、老齡化和超低生育率構成了21世紀的人口危機,而"生育赤字"和超低生育意愿是這場危機的"原爆點"。本研究圍繞生育意愿,從生育意愿與生育率關系的穩定性、生育意愿變化規律、生育意愿影響因素、生育赤字、家庭政策對生育意愿的影響等方面勾畫出20世紀80年代以來生育意愿理論的圖譜和實證研究的發展脈絡,探討了中國生育意愿研究存在的幾個認識問題。中國的生育意愿已低于更替水平,這無疑是生育危機的前兆,需要引起高度重視。

Population decline,aging and lowest-low fertility constitute the population crisis of the 21 st century. The"fertility deficit"and lowest-low fertility are the roots of the crisis. Discussing issues regarding the stability of relationship between fertility intentions and fertility,the changing fertility intentions,the impact factors of fertility intentions,fertility deficit,and the influence of family policy on fertility intentions,this paper outlines the development of theoretical and empirical research on fertility intentions since the 1980 s,and points out the existing problems of research on fertility intentions in China. China’s childbearing intentions has been at a very low level,which signals a birth crisis and requests serious attention.