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題名:臺灣電子業技術變動之動態經濟分析
作者:黃順錫 引用關係
作者(外文):Shuen-Shi Hwang
校院名稱:中國文化大學
系所名稱:經濟學研究所
指導教授:施能仁
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2002
主題關鍵詞:經濟成長貿易條件不利成長荷蘭病偏離效果成長效果同步效果動態規劃Economic GrowthTerm of TradeImmiserizing GrowthDutch DiseaseSlanting EffectsGrowth EffectsSynchronous EffectsDynamic Programming
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本文擬從台灣電子產品部門的技術變動,建立動態的聯立模型。運用官方統計的次級資料──投入產出表(Input-Output Table),進行動態的投入產出分析(Dynamic Input-Output Analysis ),建立產業成長的動態系統,探討技術變動的衝擊,荷蘭病效應的驗證,以及總體經濟福利的測度。進一步對台灣產業未來的發展方向,提供政策建議。將國內需求擴張分割成國內消費需求擴張與國內投資需求擴張,以瞭解國內投資與技術變動對台灣經濟成長與結構變動的影響,是本文的特色。
一國要避免貧乏化或不利成長 ( Impoverishing or Immiserizing Growth ),應加大經濟成長的幅度,或偏向進口替代產業成長以改善貿易條件。台灣從1981年成立新竹科學園區以後,電子產品部門在政府支持下,快速成長為主要出口產業,產生獨大的的現象。因此,本文探討:屬於出口產業的電子產品部門快速擴張之下,(1)是否使貿易條件惡化?並產生不利成長的現象?(2)是否會排擠其他產業,產生逆工業化(de-industrialization)或荷蘭病 (Dutch Disease) 的現象?(3)從1981年以來,影響台灣經濟成長與結構變動的因素為何?以及(4)進行動態規劃(Dynamic Programming),提供產業政策的建議。
關鍵詞(Keywords):經濟成長(Economic Growth) 貿易條件(Term of Trade)
貧乏化成長( Impoverishing Growth ) 不利成長 (Immiserizing Growth )
逆工業化(de-industrialization) 荷蘭病 (Dutch Disease)
偏離效果(Slanting Effects) 成長效果(Growth Effects)
同步效果(Synchronous Effects) 動態規劃(Dynamic Programming)
Dynamic Economic Analysis for the Technology Change
of Taiwan Electronic-Industry
Shuen-Shi Hwang
ABSTRACT
We try to build a dynamic simultaneous equations model by technology change of Taiwan electronic-industry here. Using official secondary data to form a dynamic system of industry growth, and study dynamic input-output analysis to understand the impact of technology change, testing for the effect of De-industrialization (or Dutch Disease), the measure of Macro economic welfare, and offer some policy suggestions for future industry development in Taiwan. The major character of the paper that we divide domestic demand into domestic consumption demand and domestic investment demand in our model, in order to know in detail the effects of economic growth and structural change that originate from shocks of domestic investment and technology change.
If a country want to avoid impoverishing ( or immiserizing ) growth in economic development, then it should obey a rule as statement in international trade theory that the economy increase the extent of economic growth as large as possible, or expand toward an import-biased growth, in order to improve it’s term of trade. After Hsinchu Science-Based Industry Park was built under Taiwan government’s policy induction in 1981. Until recently, Taiwan electronic-industry is continually expanded rapidly under the support of government’s industry policy. Taiwan electronic-industry is a major exportable-industry after 1986. And the phenomenon that electronic-industry quickly expand alone was observed. Following consults will be investigated in the paper :
(a) Whether the term of trade deterioration is the consequence of economic growth, and impoverishing ( or immiserizing ) growth will occur in Taiwan?
(b) Whether other industries are crowded out by electronic-industry and the result of De-industrialization (or Dutch Disease) is induced in Taiwan?
(c) What are the major important factors that influence Taiwan economic growth and structural change from 1981 to 2001?
(d) We have research of optimal control in dynamic programming, in order to offer some suggestions in industry policy.
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