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題名:基金管理之不確定性與投資行為: 探討基金經理人之生涯規劃、競賽與從眾行為
作者:黃清滿
作者(外文):Ching-mann Huang
校院名稱:國立成功大學
系所名稱:企業管理學系碩博士班
指導教授:胡聯國
康信鴻
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2005
主題關鍵詞:競賽從眾行為展望理論基金經理人生涯規劃心理帳戶Herding BehaviorTournamentProspect TheoryFund ManagersCareer ConcernsMental Account.
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  近十年來,共同基金的家數如雨後春筍般快速增加,基金管理為相當龐大的產業,其內容包含資金投資決策、基金經理人之獎賞與為數眾多的投資人之管理。在共同基金產業裡,基金經理人彼此競爭以吸引潛在的投資人出資,為吸引此龐大資金投入基金裡,各個基金經理人莫不全力以赴來展現其優越的績效,以獲得源源不絕的資金投入。本論文的目的即從生涯規劃(career concerns)與獎賞機制(compensation scheme)、競賽(tournament)及從眾行為(herding behavior)等三方面,來探討共同基金經理人行為。在本論文的第一部分,吾人以兩期模式,而從基金經理人之生涯規劃觀點,來探討基金經理人之獎賞機制,特別強調基金經理人在第一期良好績效會吸引資金投入,而使得第二期基金的規模擴大,即所謂的規模效果(scale effect),相對地,基金經理人的報酬會因基金規模擴大而提高,進而對基金經理人的努力產生加乘作用。因此,如果基金經理人第一期較努力,則相對地績效也會較佳,此較佳的績效會進而影響到第二期的努力程度。
  本論文的第二部分,吾人探討能力的差異如何影響兩位基金經理人之風險決策行為,及後續的努力程度與報酬。吾人顯示:當兩家基金的資金流入量差距擴大時,則會促使基金經理人更加努力;另外,在基金經理人之風險選擇方面,如果能力較低的經理人意識到其能力的差距與對手不大時,則她會採取高風險策略以提高贏取此競賽的機率;相反地,如果能力較低的經理人知道其能力的差距與對手很大時,則採取低風險策略對她而言是較佳的策略。
  本論文的第三部分,吾人探討前期投資損益如何影響基金經理人的從眾行為。在考慮基金經理人的心理帳戶(mental account)後,吾人檢視基金經理人是否會揚棄她的私有資訊,進而跟隨他人而形成從眾行為。吾人發現:當基金經理人前期沒有賺錢也沒有賠錢或有賺錢時,擁有私有資訊的基金經理人不會產生從眾行為,因為擁有私有資訊的基金經理人比無私有資訊的基金經理人有較佳之績效。但當基金經理人前期賠錢時,則擁有私有資訊的基金經理人就會產生從眾行為,因為基金經理人對賠錢的心理感受比贏錢者要來得強烈,而且基金經理人害怕本期再輸錢,因此,前期賠錢的基金經理人較容易形成從眾行為。
 The mutual fund industry has grown at a fast rate over the last decade. The fund management is a huge industry involving enormous investments and fund managers and numerous investors. In mutual fund industry, fund managers compete to attract potential investors to invest into capitals. This large inflow makes it very important for fund managers to improve their performances and make their funds attractive for new capital inflow. The purposes of this dissertation explore three categories about the behavior of mutual fund managers: career concerns and compensation design, tournament, and herding behavior. In the first part of this dissertation, we address the design of optimal compensation scheme for the fund manager with considering career concerns. We stress the scale effect of the first-period performance on the enlargement of the second-period fund size and thereby multiply the performance impact of the second-period effort. Therefore, the more effort the fund manager exerts in the first period, the better the performance she has. Thus, this better
performance will affect her second-period effort.
 In the second part of this dissertation, we examine how the ability difference between two fund mangers affects each fund manager’s risk strategy, the subsequent effort level and compensation package. We show that a larger spread of capital inflows between the two funds will trigger greater manager effort. With regard to a manager’s risk choice, when the low-ability manager acknowledges that her ability is marginally inferior to the rival, the manager might consider adopting a more risky strategy to minimize the ability disadvantage per unit risk and improve chances of winning the tournament. On the contrary, if low-ability manager acknowledges that her ability is significantly inferior to the high-ability manager, it is optimal decision for the low-ability manager to take low-risk strategies.
 In the third part of this dissertation, we analyze where prior investment outcomes will affect fund managers’ herding behavior. After taking account the changing in their mental account, we then examine where fund managers should disregard their private information, and evolve herding behavior. We show that the informed fund manager for the case of prior gains and no gains and losses, the informed fund manager will not herd the uninformed fund manager due to higher values function for the informed fund manager than for the uninformed fund manager. The informed fund manager with prior gains becomes less loss aversion in trading activities, and will not herd the uninformed fund manager either. However, for the informed fund manager with prior losses will discard their private information to herd the uninformed fund manager. This implies that the informed fund manager with prior losses would be more sensitive to reductions in the value of her portfolio than to increases.
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