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題名:團體情境中個人與團體之基礎率謬誤、決策正確性與學習:魔鬼擁護法與電子媒介溝通的效果
作者:李怡穎
作者(外文):Yi-in Lee
校院名稱:雲林科技大學
系所名稱:管理研究所博士班
指導教授:楊仁壽
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2006
主題關鍵詞:電子媒介溝通團體學習決策捷思魔鬼擁護法基礎率謬誤Base rate fallacyDecision HeuristicTeam LearningDevil''s AdvocacyComputer-mediated Communication
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過去基礎率謬誤研究著重在個人層次或是個人與團體層次謬誤之比較。本研究從個人與團體資訊處理觀點,探討團體情境中個人與團體基礎率謬誤情形,以及不同團體決策方式與團體溝通媒介對決策正確性和學習效果的影響。基礎率採組間設計與組內設計概念。組內設計是指受試者在不同基礎率水準下重複決策。團體決策方式包括團體共識法與魔鬼擁護法,團體溝通媒介則分為電子媒介溝通與面對面溝通。學習效果包括個人進入團體前與團體討論後決策結果之比較以及重複決策過程中個人與團體所產生的學習效果。研究方法為實驗室實驗法,156名受訪者隨機指派至4人ㄧ組的團體,共計39組。
研究結果包括:(1)基礎率謬誤(組間設計概念):當基礎率與問題無因果關係時,個人與團體均會產生基礎率謬誤。當兩者存在因果關係時,個人會注意到基礎率,但是團體仍未注意到基礎率;(2)基礎率謬誤(組內設計):透過組內設計方式確實可提高受試者對基礎率的注意力;(3)定錨與修正效應:當個別證據資訊為抽象化的統計數據時,受試者會以個別證據資訊為定錨點,但是會產生定錨點錯誤。決策過程中給予新資訊時,受試者的定錨點與調整情形隨之改變。給予正面資訊時,受試者會產生正向調整,接受負面資訊時則維持原決策結果。但是兩種情況仍舊會產生調整不足偏誤;(4)決策正確性:團體討論前個人決策結果正確性受先驗機率與個別證據資訊影響。團體與團體討論後個人決策結果則是由團體討論前個人決策結果所主導;(5)學習與改變:魔鬼擁護法與電子媒介溝通處方不適用於改善基礎率謬誤。但是透過重複決策方式可以促進團體學習與改變。
本研究成果在於探討團體情境中個人與團體的基礎率謬誤以及決策正確性和學習效果。另外在處理文本問題時,受試者不只會產生基礎率謬誤,亦會形成定錨與修正不足偏誤。魔鬼擁護法與電子媒介溝通雖然可解決許多團體互動不善問題,但不適用於基礎率謬誤問題。
Previous research on base rate fallacy has focused on the individual level or the comparison of individual and group levels. This study concentrates on the individual and group base rate fallacy in a group context, and on the effects of group decision method and communication media on decision accuracy and learning. The base rate is designed in accordance with the conceptions of the between-subject and within-subject approaches. The group decision methods include the group consensus and devil’s advocacy approaches. The group communication media comprise computer-mediated and face-to-face communication. The learning effect refers to the comparison of individual decision accuracy before and after an individual joins the group discussion. The learning effect of an individual and group is measured following the repeat measure processes. An experimental approach is presented, in which 156 respondents are randomly assigned to 39 groups, with each group consisting of four individuals.
The following results are obtained(1)Base rate fallacy( Between-subject Design): individuals and groups both exhibit the base rate fallacy, while no causality is identified between the base rate and the problem; if causality exists, then individuals notice the base rate, while groups do not. (2)Base rate fallacy( Within-subject Design): this design improves respondents’ attention to the base rate. (3) Anchoring and adjustment effect: the respondents adopt individual information as the anchoring point, resulting in a wrong anchoring point. The individual information in this case comprises statistical-typed data. The anchoring and adjustment change if new information is provided to the respondents during the decision-making process, then. The respondents change their decisions positively when positive information is given, and do not change their decisions when negative information is given. Respondents exhibit insufficient adjustment in either situation. (4)Decision accuracy: the accuracy of individual decision before group discussion is influenced by the prior probability and individual information. The individual and group decisions after group discussion are affected by the individual decision prior to group discussion. (5)Learning and change: the devil’s advocacy method and computer-mediated communication are not the appropriate solutions for improving the base rate fallacy. The repeat decision processes can promote group learning and change.
This study reveals the base rate fallacy scenarios in a group context, with those results indicating hat respondents show the base rate fallacy and the anchoring and insufficient adjustment biases when dealing with the Textbook Problem paradigm. Although the devil’s advocacy method and computer-mediated communication can improve many interaction problems within a group, they are not effective methods for managing the base rate fallacy.
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