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題名：台灣觀光發展之實證研究
作者：蔡旖凡
作者(外文)：Yi-Fan Tsai
校院名稱：中華大學
系所名稱：科技管理學系(所)
指導教授：徐子光
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2009
主題關鍵詞：旅遊動機；層級分析法；模糊理論；理想解類似度順序偏好法；分量迴歸；Travel motivation；AHP；Fuzzy Theory；TOPSIS；Qnantile regression
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近年來由於經濟的迅速繁榮和生活水平不斷改善，觀光旅遊業已經成為越來越重要的產業。學術界與實務界普遍相信觀光業會成為未來各國的重要產業。因此本研究主題“台灣觀光發展之實證研究”主要探討兩個議題:其一主題乃就觀光客行為與心理層面，運用層級分析法(AHP)與模糊理論(Fuzzy Theory)配合理想解類似度順序偏好法(TOPSIS)來了解遊客旅遊動機因素及這些因素對遊客選擇旅遊目的地之影響。第二個主題主要就台灣之總體環境，運用分量迴歸(Quantile Regression)來驗證觀光發展對經濟成長之影響為何。
第一個研究主題中，由於觀光產業已成為各國經濟的主要來源，台灣經濟主體也產生了重大的變化，從過去以製造業為導向轉變為現在以休閒旅遊業為主。台灣政府亦制定觀光發展策略使其成為國家未來之主要政策之一。觀光局在2002年至2007年提出了“觀光倍增計劃”以期在2008年可以達到來台遊客人數成長一倍之目標。為了達成目標，了解來台遊客旅遊動機及影響觀光客選擇目的地的因素是非常重要的。決策的制定過程從開始到最後做出目的地選擇是一個非常複雜的過程，若能了解遊客目的地選擇之因素對於制定正確的行銷策略是非常有幫助的。最近台灣觀光局致力於建立台灣形象並提出一個國際行銷口號為 “Taiwan, Touch your heart” ，以8大景點做為遊客來台觀光最具吸引力之主要旗鑑點，這8大旅遊景點亦成為本個案研究之主要變數。本研究之層級分析模型中，含四個主要的層級及22個主要的因素，以此層級架構來搜集資料與建立來台遊客動機之相對重要性因素。接著運用模糊理論配合理想解類似度順序偏好法，對8大景點對應各個遊客來台動機因素之權重予以評估及做最後的排序。
第二個研究主題中, 我們運用分量迴歸來觀察經濟低成長(分量10)與經濟高成長(分量90)，觀察在不同條件(分量)下，觀光發展對經濟成長之影響。資料搜集資料期間與來源以1965年至2005年間台灣經濟資料庫之國內生產毛額與觀光年報之來台遊客人次為主。觀光倍增計劃在2008已達修正後之400萬來台旅遊人次之目標，不僅僅增加了遊客人次的數目，觀光客每日的消費對於台灣經濟亦帶來了顯著的貢獻。雖然觀光對經濟發展有顯著的影響，但顯少研究針對，在經濟高成長亦或是低成長階段，觀光發展會帶來正面的經濟成長有所探討。 因此，觀光在哪一個經濟成長階段會帶來經濟顯著的影響?還有政府致力推廣觀光的效果又如何呢?分析這些問題可以幫助決策制定者對於有效分攤資源做出適當的決策。
整體而言，本論文有以下重要貢獻。第一， 本研究發現指出探討親友及個人旅遊安全為兩個來台觀光遊客之最主要動機因素，價格則列為最不重要之因素。台北101成為遊客偏好之目的地第一名。第二，台灣觀光成長對經濟屬於高成長階段時(分量30至分量90間)有顯著正面的影響，但屬於低成長階段(分量10與分量20)並未帶來顯著的影響。本研究方法提供對於想了解在經濟成長之不同條件下，觀光對於經濟發展之整體性研究，提出更為詳盡的分析。
Tourism has become more and more important in recent years due to rapid economic prosperity and continued improvement in living standards. Both academics and practitioners believe that tourism become a vital industry in the future for countries. My Ph.D. dissertation, entitled “An Empirical Study of Taiwan Tourism Development,” intends to explore two main issues. Firstly, from a consumer behavior point of view, using methods of AHP and Fuzzy TOPSIS to see how tourists select the travel destination; secondly, from an external environment point of view, using method of quantile regression to examine the relationships between tourism development and economic growth.
Moreover, tourism industry also becomes a major income resource for nations. In tandem with the tremendous diversification of Taiwan’s economy from one that is industry oriented to one that is leisure and entertainment oriented, Taiwan’s government has committed to taking tourism development as a major policy. The Tourism Bureau has launched a project entitled “Doubling of Tourist Arrival Plan” aimed at doubling the number of tourists visiting Taiwan by year 2008. To achieve this goal, it is important to understand why people travel to Taiwan and what factors influence their choices. The decision- making process leading to the final choice of a travel destination is a very complex process, and understanding what influences a traveler to choose a destination is important in developing appropriate marketing strategies. Recently, the Tourism Bureau, in its effort to promote Taiwan’s international tourism brand image with “Taiwan, Touch your heart” as the international marketing slogan, has named 8 tourist spots as “Focus on Taiwan Tourism-Flagship Tourist Attraction.” In the first issue, I selected these 8 tourist spots to be the alternatives in my case study. A 4-level Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) model, consisting of 22 attributes on the 4th level, was proposed and tested using data collected from tourists visiting Taiwan to establish the relative importance of pre-selected factors (criteria). By using fuzzy set theory and the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), the preference of 8 given destinations corresponding to each criterion are evaluated and given final ranking.
In the second issue, this dissertation employs quantile regression approach to capture the behavior exact at the 10th to the 90th quantiles of conditional economic growth distribution and to test the effects of tourism growth using data base of Taiwan Economic Journal (TEJ) and annual report on tourism from 1965 to 2005 in Taiwan. DTAP achieved the goal that the annual number of visitor arrivals in Taiwan reached to 4 million in 2008. It contributed not only to visitor arrivals but also tourist spending that represents a significant income source for the national economy. Although studies of the impact on tourism to the national economy had grown significantly in Taiwan, researchers have not paid much attention to identify under which conditions the growth of tourism has had positive impact on economic growth. Therefore, this dissertation also intends to find out tourism growth brings about positive economic growth under certain conditions. Questions like “How does tourism affect the level and distribution of GDP?” and “Does government benefit through the promotion of tourism?” are crucial to policy makers while discussing public policy effectiveness in the resource management and economic development.
Overall, this dissertation has made several important contributions. First, results indicate that visiting friends/relatives and personal safety appear to be the 2 most important factors for inbound tourists to Taiwan, price is the least important and Taipei 101 is the first priority for travelers. Second, tourism growth has a positive effect on economic growth at the top end of distribution (0.3 to 0.9 quantiles) of economic growth in Taiwan. However, tourism growth has no significant effect on economic growth at the low end of distribution (0.1 to 0.2 quantiles) of economic growth. The contribution of this dissertation lies in providing empirical evidence to demonstrate that whether tourism growth will affect economic growth depends on the conditional distribution of economic growth.
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