臺灣人文及社會科學引文索引資料庫系統

:::

詳目顯示

回上一頁
第 1 筆 / 總合 1 筆   第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁
/1頁
題名：觀光發展與經濟成長之研究
作者：葉龍泰 引用關係
作者(外文)：Yeh, Lung-Tai
校院名稱：國立中正大學
系所名稱：國際經濟研究所
指導教授：黃柏農
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2012
主題關鍵詞：觀光發展；經濟成長；門檻迴歸模型；雙門檻迴歸模型；一般動差法；動態追蹤資料模型；Tourism development；Economic growth；Threshold regression model；Nested threshold autoregressive model；Generalized method of mements；Dynamic panel data model
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:47
本文包含三篇關於觀光發展與經濟成長的研究議題，茲分別說明如下：
第一篇實證研究為使用橫斷面資料來研究84個國家在1995到2008年這段期間「觀光發展」和「經濟成長」之間的「線性」和「非線性」的關係，其研究目的在於運用門檻迴歸模型來檢驗觀光和經濟成長之間關係的差異。為了證明經濟成長和觀光發展之間的關係，我們選擇了「觀光專業化程度」、「觀光客人數比例」及「旅遊服務比例」來當作門檻變數。
研究結果顯示：在我們研究的84個國家中，有38個國家在三個門檻變數中均高於最適的門檻水準值，我們推論這些國家應該採用較積極的觀光政策。至於其餘的46個國家則至少有一個門檻變數低於最適的門檻水準值，因此這些國家應該採用不同程度的觀光政策來促進經濟成長。根據本研究結果，可以得到主要的政策意涵是：不是所有的國家都一定會從觀光發展中獲利，也就是說觀光成長不一定會帶來經濟成長。因此，我們會建議並非所有的國家都要採用觀光政策來促進經濟發展，也許這些國家可以透過其它非觀光部門來達成經濟成長的目標。
第二篇實證研究為運用Astatkie et al. (1997)所提出的雙門檻迴歸模型(Nested Threshold Autoregressive Model, NeTAR)來檢驗觀光和經濟成長之間的關係。亦即，本文除了使用橫斷面資料和雙門檻迴歸模型來研究84個國家在1995到2008年這段期間「觀光發展」和「經濟成長」之間的關係以外，在本文，我們還選擇了「人均所得」、「國家人口數」、「觀光專業化程度」及「觀光客人數比例」來當作門檻變數。
若我們以雙門檻變數來檢驗觀光發展和經濟成長之間的關係，則研究結果顯示：(a)在觀光國(高觀光專業化程度的國家或高觀光客人數比例的國家)，不論其所得高低(富國或窮國)，其觀光發展都會正向影響經濟成長；(b)在大國，不論其觀光專業化程度高低，其觀光發展則都會負向影響經濟成長；(c)在小國，不論其所得高低(富國或窮國)，其觀光發展則都會正向影響經濟成長；(d)最後，我們發現只有在高觀光專業化程度且高觀光客人數比例的國家，其觀光發展才會正向影響經濟成長。因此，依照我們的研究結果，可以得到主要的經濟意涵是：並非所有的國家都適合藉由觀光發展來促進經濟成長，只有小國及高觀光專業化程度或高觀光客人數比例的國家，才適合發展觀光，並利用觀光政策來達成經濟成長的目的。
最後，第三篇實證研究使用動態追蹤資料（Dynamic Panel Data, DPD）的方法來研究84個國家在1995到2008年的觀光發展和經濟成長。為了不讓國家特性因素影響研究結果，本研究進一步根據世界銀行所得水準的定義，將資料分成四類：低所得族群、中低所得族群、中高所得族群，及高所得族群。此外，我們還依據區域將資料分成：亞洲、非洲、歐洲和美洲。接著，我們再利用Blundell & Bond (1998)所建議的一階系統GMM方法來估計這四個所得族群和四個區域的追蹤資料VAR模型。最後，檢定其觀光發展和經濟成長之間的因果關係。
研究結果顯示：(a)在低所得族群、亞洲國家和非洲國家，觀光發展會正向影響經濟成長；(b)在中所得族群（包含中低和中高所得族群）和美洲國家，其觀光發展和經濟成長之間不存在顯著的因果關係；(c)在高所得族群和歐洲國家，觀光發展則會負向影響經濟成長。最後，本文提出一些值得提供政府參考的重要政策意涵。
The main issue of this dissertation is to research the relationship between tourism development and economic growth. It includes three essays which are as follows:
The first paper uses cross sectional data (1995–2008 yearly averages) for 84 countries to investigate the linear and nonlinear relationship between tourism development and economic growth. The purpose of this paper is to apply the threshold regression model to investigate the difference in the relationship between tourism and economic growth by using certain threshold variables. To identify the conditions under which economic growth is related to tourism development, we select the degree of tourism specialization, the ratio of tourist, and the ratio of travel services as threshold variables.
If threshold variables are lower than certain optimal threshold levels, there is no significant relationship between tourism development and economic growth. However, when these threshold variables are higher than certain optimal levels, there is a significantly positive relationship between these two. Hence, if there is a significantly positive relationship between tourism development and economic growth, then the country should adopt a more aggressive tourism policy to promote economic development. Conversely, if there is no significant relationship between the two, then the country should adopt a more conservative tourism policy. Results reveal that in 38 out of the 84 countries studied, all the three threshold variables are found to be higher than the optimal levels. It is inferred that these 38 countries should adopt a more aggressive tourism policy. As for the other 46 countries, at least one threshold variable is lower than the optimal levels. Thus, these countries should adopt tourism policy with different degrees to foster economic growth. In the light of the results, the main policy implication is that it is not necessary for all countries to benefit from the tourism development, that is, tourism growth does not always lead to economic growth. Therefore, we may suggest that not every country should adopt a tourism policy to promote economic development, and these countries may achieve economic growth through other non-tourism sectors.
The second paper applies the Nested Threshold Autoregressive (NeTAR) Model proposed by Astatkie et al. (1997) to investigate the difference in the relationship between tourism development and economic growth. Here, we select per capita GDP, population, degree of tourism specialization, and ratio of tourist as threshold variables.
If we use double threshold variables to examine the relationship between tourism development and economic growth, then the results find that: (a) in tourism countries (high degree of tourism specialization country or high ratio of tourist country), no matter income levels, tourism development leads economic growth positively; (b) in big countries, no matter degree of tourism specialization, tourism development leads economic growth negatively; (c) in small countries, no matter income levels, tourism development leads economic growth positively; (d) finally, only in high degree of tourism specialization and high ratio of tourist country, tourism development leads economic growth positively. Hence, according to the results, the main economic implication is that it is not necessary for all countries to develop tourism to promote economic growth. Only small country, high degree of tourism specialization country or high ratio of tourist country may achieve economic growth through tourism policy.
Finally, the third paper uses the dynamic panel data (DPD) of tourism development and economic growth for 84 countries from 1995 to 2008. Based on the income levels defined by the World Bank, the data are divided into four categories: low income group, lower middle income group, upper middle income group, and high income group. In addition, we classify these 84 countries into four regional groups: Asia, Africa, Europe and America. We employ the one-step system GMM (GMM-SYS) approach suggested by Blundell & Bond (1998) for the estimation of the panel VAR model in each of the four groups. Then, we test the causal relationship between tourism development and economic growth.
The research results reveal that (a) in the low income group and in the Asian & African countries, tourism development leads economic growth positively; (b) in the middle income group (include lower middle and upper middle income groups) and in the American countries, there is no causal relationship between tourism development and economic growth; (c) in the high income group and in the European countries, tourism development leads economic growth negatively. Finally, we propose some important policy implications for the government.
Astatkie, T., Watts, D. G., and Watt, W. E. (1997), “Nested Threshold Autoregressive (NeTAR) Models,” International Journal of Forecasting, 13, 105-116.
Arellano, M. and Bond, S. (1991), “Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations,” Review of
Economic Studies, 58, 277-297.
Arellano, M. and Bover, O. (1995), “Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models,” Journal of Econometrics, 68, 29-51.
Balaguer, J. and Cantavella-Jorda, M. (2002), “Tourism as a Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: the Spanish Case,” Applied Economics, 34, 877-884.
Baltagi, B. H. (2001), Economics Analysis of Panel data, 2nd edition, John Wiley and Sons Ltd, Chicester.
Barro, R. J. (1990), “Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth,” Journal of Political Economy, 98, 103-125.
Barro, R. J. (1991), “Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 407-443.
Barro, R. J. and Sala-i-Martin, X. (1995), Economic Growth, MIT press.
Barro, R. J. (1998), Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study, Volume 1, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
Blundell, R. and Bond, S. R. (1998), “Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models,” Journal of Econometrics, 87, 115-143.
Bond, S. R. (2002), “Dynamic Panel Data Models: A Guide to Micro Data Methods and Practice,” Portuguese Economic Journal, 1, 141-162.
Bound, J., Jager, D. A. and Baker, R. M. (1995), “Problem with Instrumental Variable Estimation When the Correlation between the Instruments and the Endogenous Explanatory Variable Is Weak,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 90, 443-450.
Brau, R., Lanza, A. and Pigliaru, F. (2007), “How Fast Are Small Tourist Countries Growing? The 1980-2003 Evidence,” Milan, Italy, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Nota di Lavoro, 1, 1-15.
Brida, J. G., Carrera, E. J. S. and Risso, W. A. (2008), “Tourism’s Impact on Long-Run Mexican Economic Growth,” Economics Bulletin, 21, 1-8.
Cass, D. (1965), “Optimum Growth in an Aggregative Model of Capital Accumulation,” Review of Economic Studies, 32, 233-240.
Chang, C. L., Khamkaew, T., McAleer, M. and Tansuchat, R. (2010), “A Panel Threshold Model of Tourism Specialization and Economic Development,” International Journal of Intelligent Technologies and Applied Statistics, 3, 159-186.
Chen, C. F. and Chiou-Wei, S. Z. (2009), “Tourism Expansion, Tourism Uncertainty and Economic Growth: New Evidence from Taiwan and Korea,” Tourism Management, 30, 812-818.
Dritsakis, N. (2004), “Tourism as a Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: An Empirical Investigation for Greece Using Causality Analysis,” Tourism Economics, 10, 305-316.
Durbarry, R. (2004), “Tourism and Economic Growth: The Case of Mauritius,” Tourism Economics, 10, 389-401.
Durlauf, S. N. and Johnson, P. A. (1995), “Multiple Regimes and Cross-Country Growth Behaviour,” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10, 365-384.
Edwards, S. (1998), “Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?” Economic Journal, 108, 383-398.
Eugenio-Martin, J. L., Morales, N. M. and Scarpa, R. (2004), “Tourism and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries: A Panel Data Approach,” Milan, Italy, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Nota di Lavoro, 26, 1-20.
Fayissa, B., Nsiah, C. and Tadasse, B. (2007), The Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth and Development in Africa, Department of Economics and Finance Working Paper, Middle Tennessee State University.
Garin-Munoz, T. (2006), “Inbound International Tourism to Canary Islands: A Dynamic Panel Data Model,” Tourism Management, 27, 281-291.
Garin-Munoz, T. and Montero-Martin, L. F. (2007), “Tourism in the Balearic Islands: A Dynamic Model for International Demand Using Panel Data,” Tourism Management, 28, 1224-1235.
Gunduz, L. and Hatemi-J, A. (2005), “Is the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Turkey?” Applied Economics Letters, 12, 499-504.
Hansen, B. E. (1996), “Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis,” Econometrica, 64, 413-430.
Hansen, B. E. (1997), “Inference in TAR Models,” Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 2, 1-14.
Hansen, B. E. (1999), “Threshold Effects in Non-Dynamic Panels: Estimation, Testing, and Inference,” Journal of Econometrics, 93, 345-368.
Hansen, B. E. (2000), “Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation,” Econometrica, 68, 575-603.
Hausman, A. (1978), “Specification Tests in Econometrics,” Econometrica, 46, 1251-1271.
Hsiao, C. (1986), Analysis of Panel Data, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New York.
Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H. and Shin, Y. (2003), “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels,” Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53-74.
Katircioglu, S. T. (2009), “Revisiting the Tourism-Led-Growth Hypothesis for Turkey Using the Bounds Test and Johansen Approach for Cointegration,” Tourism Management, 30, 17-20.
Kim, H. J., Chen, M. H. and Jang, S. C. S. (2006), “Tourism Expansion and Economic Development: The Case of Taiwan,” Tourism Management, 27, 925-933.
Koopmans, T.C. (1965), On the Concept of Optimal Economic Growth in the Econometric Approach to Development Planning, Amsterdam: North-Holland.
Kuznets, S. (1966), Modern Economic Growth, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Lee, C. C. and Chang, C. P. (2008), “Tourism Development and Economic Growth: A Closer Look at Panels,” Tourism Management, 29, 180-192.
Lee, C. C. and Chien, M. S. (2008), “Structural Breaks, Tourism Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from Taiwan,” Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 77, 358-368.
Malik, S., Chaudhry, I. S., Sheikh, M. R. and Farooqi, F. S. (2010), “Tourism, Economic Growth and Current Account Deficit in Pakistan: Evidence from Co-integration and Causal Analysis,” European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences, 22, 21-31.
Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D. and Well, D. N. (1992), “A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 407-437.
Myrdal, G. (1968), Asian Drama: An Inquiry into the Poverty of Nations, New York, Pantheon Books.
Nelson, C. R. and Plosser, C. I. (1982), “Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 10, 139-162.
Oh, C. O. (2005), “The Contribution of Tourism Development to Economic Growth in the Korean Economy,” Tourism Management, 26, 39-44.
Parrilla, J. C., Font, A. R. and Nadel, J. R. (2007), “Tourism and Long-Term Growth – A Spanish Perspective,” Annals of Tourism Research, 34, 709-726.
Po, W. C. and Huang, B. N. (2008), “Tourism Development and Economic Growth － A Nonlinear Approach,” Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 387, 5535-5542.
Sequeira, T. N. and Campos, C. (2005), “International Tourism and Economic Growth: A Panel Data Approach,” Milan, Italy, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Nota di Lavoro, 141, 1-14.
Shan, J. and Wilson, K. (2001), “Causality between Trade and Tourism: Empirical Evidence from China,” Applied Economics Letters, 8, 279-283.
Solow, R. M. (1956), “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70, 65-94.
Todaro, M. (2005), Economic Development, 9th Edition, Addison-Wesley Publishers.
Tong, H. (1978), On a Threshold Model, in: C.H. Chen (Ed.), Pattern Recognition and Signal Processing, Sijthoff & Noordhoff, Amsterdam, 101-141.
Tong, H. and Lim, K. S. (1980), “Threshold Autoregression, Limit Cycles, and Data,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, 42, 245-292.
WDI (2010), World Development Indicators, World Development Report, World Bank, Washington, DC.
WTO (2010), Yearbook of Tourism Statistics, Madrid: World Tourism Organization.
WTTC (2010), Annual Reports, Progress and Priorities 2009/10, The World Travel and Tourism Council.

 
 
 
 
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
QR Code
QRCODE

臺灣人文及社會科學引文索引資料庫

目前上線人數：374（臺灣：367，外國：7） ／ 本年度總使用人次：1972506 ／ 訪客人次（自102年09月）：67780211
國家圖書館著作權聲明 Copyright © 2013 All rights reserved.
本館地址: 100201臺北市中山南路20號． 本館地圖及交通資訊．
總機：(02)23619132．最佳瀏覽解析度為1024x768以上