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題名:觀光政策的調整對於我國觀光產業效益之研究
作者:黃文洲 引用關係
作者(外文):Wen-Chou Huang
校院名稱:元智大學
系所名稱:管理學院博士班
指導教授:曾芳美
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2017
主題關鍵詞:觀光政策觀光發展公司績效傅立葉形式門檻迴歸模型tourism policytourism developmentcorporate performanceFourier modelthreshold regression model
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過去探討觀光政策調整來引導觀光發展的研究,大多數未特別將觀光發展所具有的時間特性 (時間趨勢和季節特性) 和重大事件的衝擊納入考量,在研究推論上恐有偏誤的情況產生。另外,在觀光政策的調整對於觀光產業之公司績效的影響情況,至今也未有文獻是以透過非問卷之公司所揭露的實際數據來進行分析。因此研究分成宏觀及微觀等兩種角度來進行分析,宏觀部分:採用傅立葉形式來捕捉時間趨勢及季節性等因素,檢定觀光政策調整對於我國觀光發展的影響,微觀部分探討觀光政策調整對於觀光產業之公司績效的影響。本論文的觀光政策是採用2008年七月開放中國大陸地區人民可直接來台觀光旅遊的觀光調整政策為案例,分析其對於我國觀光發展與其觀光產業之公司績效的影響效果。首先,在宏觀部分探討觀光政策調整對於觀光發展的影響議題上,除了採用ANOVA檢定外,主要利用時間趨勢項與傅立葉形式來捕捉觀光發展之時間趨勢與季節循環性現象。分析的結果,觀光政策的調整效果僅存在中、港、澳等地區之政策調整主要影響國家,但整體觀光市場則並未存在顯著的政策調整效果,故傾向支持觀光政策的調整對於觀光發展的長期效果有限或為無效。
其次,從微觀的角度來進行分析觀光政策的推動與調整對於我國觀光產業之公司績效的影響狀況。若在考量觀光類股之個別公司的研發支出與創新機會、經營型態及發展方向、公司特徵及總體經濟因素等要件之因素對於公司績效的影響後,發現無論是採用ROA、ROE或是平均每位員工營收 (RPE) 等公司績效指標,所檢定的結果皆支持觀光政策的調整效果是呈現不顯著的結果,亦即台灣觀光政策的推動及調整對於我國觀光產業之公司績效表現是不存在影響效果。另外,再以亞洲來台觀光人次之成長率設為門檻迴歸模型的控制變數後,證實亞洲來台觀光人數之成長率在達到某種成長水準後 (存在門檻值),對國內觀光產業之公司績效表現產生明顯的影響,這個結果除了說明觀光發展對於觀光產業的重要性外,也間接說明發展亞洲觀光市場的重要性。
最後,本研究發現在國內上市櫃觀光類股公司之中,無論是所經營的產品或勞務、公司股東結構,甚至是董監事成員結構來看,有國際化不足的疑慮值得未來各界未來持續所加以關注的焦點。同時在研發支出與創新機會的數據上,反映國內觀光產業對於研究發展和創新投入上長期並未獲業者重視的結果。依據驗證的結果,本研究認為未來台灣觀光發展應以亞洲整體區域性的發展模式為優先考量,較能夠降低單一國家 (地區) 發展的不確定性風險,包含政治風險。
Past research on tourism policy adjustment to guide tourism development mostly did not concern about time characteristics (temporal trend and seasons) of tourism development and the impact of significant events. There could be errors in research inference. In addition, as to effect of tourism policy adjustment on corporate performance of tourism industry, it lacks the literature to analyze the actual figures disclosed by the companies, instead of questionnaires. Therefore, this study probes into temporal trend and seasonal factors by Fourier model and examines the effect of tourism policy adjustment on tourism development in Taiwan. It also explores the impact of tourism policy adjustment on corporate performance of tourism industry. The purpose of this study is to probe into effect of travel liberation adjustment policy of the Chinese tourists’ direct travel in Taiwan liberated in July 2008 on tourism development of Taiwan and corporate performance of tourism industry. This study conducts analysis from macro and micro perspectives.
First, regarding the effect of tourism policy adjustment on tourism development, besides ANOVA test, this study mainly explores temporal trend and seasonal cycle of tourism development by temporal trend item and Fourier model. According to analytical result from macro perspective, effect of tourism policy adjustment only existed in the major areas which were affected by the policy adjustment, such as China, Hong Kong and Macao. However, there was no significant policy adjustment effect in the whole tourism market. Thus, this study argues that long-term effect of tourism policy adjustment on tourism development is limited or it is ineffective.
Secondly, from micro perspective, this study analyzes effect of tourism policy implementation and adjustment on corporate performance of tourism industry in Taiwan. With the concerns of impact of R&D expenditure, innovation opportunity, operational pattern, development direction, corporate characteristics and total economic factor of the companies of Tourism Sector on corporate performance, this study demonstrates that by corporate performance indexes such as ROA, ROE or RPE, the test result all revealed that adjustment effect of tourism policy was insignificant. In other words, tourism policy implementation and adjustment in Taiwan did not influence corporate performance of tourism industry in Taiwan. In addition, this study sets growth rate of Asian tourists person-time in Taiwan as control variable of threshold regression model and proves that in certain condition, growth rate of number of Asian tourists in Taiwan significantly influences corporate performance of tourism industry in Taiwan. The finding not only illustrates the importance of tourism development in tourism industry, but also indirectly argues the significance to develop Asian tourism market.
Finally, this study realizes that the companies of listed Tourism Sector in Taiwan can not be internationalized, in terms of products or labor service operated, corporate shareholding structure and even structure of directors. It should be continuously concerned by different circles in the future. In addition, the figures of R&D expenditure and innovation opportunities illustrate that in tourism industry of Taiwan, research development and innovation engagement have not be valued by the companies for long term. According to the result of validation, this study argues that in the future, tourism development of Taiwan should be based on regional development model of Asia as the priority in order to avoid the uncertainty risk of one country (region), including political risk.
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