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題名：中華職棒聯盟假球事件球員效率追蹤模式之研究
作者：林文斌 引用關係
作者(外文)：Wen-Bin Lin
校院名稱：國立體育大學
系所名稱：體育研究所
指導教授：陳美燕
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2013
主題關鍵詞：資料包絡分析法；指數加權移動平均法；運動黑暗面；棒球；兩階段；data envelopment analysis；exponentially weighted moving average；the dark side of sport；baseball；two-stage
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棒球運動在台灣發展歷史超過百年，為台灣最受歡迎的運動之一，但層級最高的職業棒球卻屢屢傳出假球情事，不斷傷害球迷情感！透過文獻探討，本研究發現國內外運動領域的負面議題持續擴大，運動本身與經濟層面皆受到波及。究竟，提高國內職棒的經濟規模即可杜絕假球情事？或者球員打假球的跡象有無脈絡可循？本研究運用「效率與生產力」之概念與研究方法進行球員效率探討，並透過加權移動平均法、確認球員歷年效率值變動是否成立。本研究切割單一週次為一個時間點，三次假球事件野手球員共計342個時間點；二次假球事件投手球員共計161個時間點。假球事件球員效率異常偵測模式，針對三次假球事件偵測總準確率為62%；針對1996年事件偵測總準確率為72%。2008年假球事件野手異常效率偵測準確率高達100%。2005年野手與2008年投手異常效率無法偵測出異常情形。經由建構一種能夠持續瞭解球員表現的評估系統，藉以監測球員的長期效率趨勢、並進一步落實球員異常效率表現的追蹤模式，期能達到防止假球事件持續發生。
The reason for baseball's society-wide popularity is explainable only in terms of the intimate relationship which has existed between the Taiwanese and baseball over the past century. However, the highest level professional baseball in Taiwan had suffered game-fixing scandals several times and continuously breaking fans’ heart. This research discovered that the dark side of sport has grown considerably by literature review, and the influences included not only sport as such, but economic impact. Consequently, either increasing the economic scale could interdict the match fixing in CPBL, or any indications revealed players corruption? This research used the concepts and research methods of “Efficiency and Productivity” to evaluate efficiencies for players, in addition to examine the time series equilibrium by exponentially weighted moving average. We set 7 days a week for one time period. There were totally 342 time periods for fields during three different matching fixing events and totally 161 periods for pitchers during two different match fixing events. The detective model which for players’ exceptional efficiency indicated accurate rate that was 62% consistent with the render a verdict of courts for the event in 1996, 2005, and 2008. Meanwhile, there was a 72% accurate rate for the event in 1996, and it was 100% for fielders in 2008. However, this model detected nothing exceptional for fielders in 2005 and also pitchers in 2008. We also looked forward to prevent match fixing by establishing an evaluation system and tracking pattern for players’ efficiency and productivity, in order to monitor long-term trends variation.
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鄧元湘、林文斌、林進隆（2006）。職業高爾夫運動員績效評估。大專體育學刊，8(2)，107-120。new window
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