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題名：應用模糊統計在運動休閒議題之研究
作者：田劉從國 引用關係
作者(外文)：Tsung-Kuo Tien-Liu
校院名稱：國立暨南國際大學
系所名稱：教育政策與行政學系
指導教授：吳柏林
吳明烈
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2015
主題關鍵詞：模糊理論；模糊時間序列；政策與行政；運動與休閒；運動教育；Fuzzy Theory；Fuzzy Time Series；Policy and administration；Sports and Leisure；Sports Education
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台灣政府歷年對運動與休閒教育環境的相關經費投入頗多，這更是台灣體育教育的政策行政重要議題，以支持與引導執行政策的成效需要更多的實證研究。但問題是實證研究也不可能在短時間內全部完成，研究者長期從事運動與休閒教育工作，認為優先探究大學運動課程與環境、休閒環境、運動經費投資水準與健保支出的關係以及選手培育的成效與選手的運動成績預測這五類問題，以作為台灣執政當局，在推動運動休閒的教育政策參酌。本研究先針對以下五個問題做實徵研究：一為如何真實定義學生在體育課程與體育政策環境的選擇與觀感？二為，學生與教師對體育休閒環境認知與評估如何？三為，政府的體育經費投入的水準與健保經費的支出關係如何？四為，不同射箭選手的射箭成績(高分組與低分組)關係如何？五為，不同射箭選手的射箭成績(高分組與低分組)是否可以進行預測評估？
本研究是透過新計量系統分析與應用，以實徵研究上述五個研究問題乃為本研究之目的。第一個目的為透過使用模糊眾數以真實表達學生對於體育課程與休閒環境的選擇與觀感。第二個目的為透過使用模糊二維數積差相關來評估學生與教師對體育休閒環境的認知。第三個目的為透過使用模糊隸屬度與二元回歸來評估政府的體育經費投入的水準與健保經費的支出關係。第四個目的為透過使用模糊相關係數來評估不同射箭選手的射箭成績(高分組與低分組)表現有相互影響關係。第五個目的為透過使用自回歸函數及模糊時間序列來評估與預測不同射箭選手的射箭成績(高分組與低分組)的解釋力。
本研究對象採用立意取樣進行分析，首先，邀請103學年度的12位學生進行體育課知覺模糊問卷題填寫。其次，邀請20位學生與12位在校老師進行休閒區域評估之問卷填答。以上均經過受試者同意後進行填答。此外，收集於網路上的官方公開資料(教育部體育署的體育經費；衛生部福利部中央健保署；中華民國射箭協會)。
本研究方法為模糊統計在運動，休閒與體育教育政策與行政的應用研究。統計方法包含使用模糊眾數、模糊中位數、反模模糊化、模糊區間數、時間序列、模糊時間序列、模糊積差相關，二元回歸、自回歸函數及轉換函數等分析。本研究分析的過程是以Minitab 16.0 and Microsoft Office Excel 2013進行相關資料分析。
本研究獲得五項結論：結論一為，使用模糊眾數能真反映出學生在體育休閒課程與環境的選擇感受與知覺比較之鑑別度；結論二為，使用模糊二維數能真實反映出教師與學生對體育休閒環境認知，並發現綠的評估與全面性比較得分高於其他項目；結論三為，使用二元回歸能真反映出政府的體育經費投入的水準五年後會影響健保經費的支出；結論四為，使用模糊積差相關能真反映出高分組男性與低分組男性的成績以及高分組的女性與高分組的男性也有相互影響；結論五為，使用自回歸函數與模糊時間序列能真反映出不同射箭成績組的解釋力，並且預測2013年亞運會的高分男生組的射箭成績。
依據研究結論：本研究完成的五項研究建議提供台灣體育教育當局在實施運動、休閒在體育教育政策與行政評估和策略之參考。建議一為，在調查學校體育休閒環境時，運用模糊眾數與來呈現學生選擇會更貼近真實感受；建議二為，在調查的運動休閒環境的各項指標時，運用模糊二維數的整合意見來呈現老師與學生共同意見也較為真實，並且除了綠的評估指標滿意外，其他指標相關政策與行政措施，應該進行部分的修正與改進；建議三為，體育經費的投資應該持續進行並且應該持續提高投資比例；建議四為，規劃射箭選手的訓練計劃時，比賽作為訓練的方針，依目前情況應該可以提供比例；建議五為，未來在進行設計運動選手的培訓與參加國際賽會，應該運用時間序列的成績表現進行考核與評估。
Considerable funds have been allocated over the years for enhancing sports and leisure educational environments in Taiwan; therefore, physical education (PE) is a crucial topic in policy administrations. In addition, the effectiveness of policy implementations must be evaluated and verified by conducting empirical studies. However, empirical studies cannot be completed within a short period because researchers involved in sports and leisure education tasks believe that emphasis should be placed on investigating the following five major problems: university PE and its environment, leisure environment, relationship between sport-related funding and investment and health care expenditure, effects of athletes’ training, and prediction of athletes’ performance in upcoming contests. Nevertheless, the findings of these empirical studies can serve as a reference in government policy-making to promote sports and leisure education in Taiwan. In the current study, empirical research was conducted to address five questions: 1) How can students’ choices and perceptions of PE curricula and PE policy environments be defined? 2) How do students and teachers perceive and evaluate sports and leisure environments? 3) What is the relationship between government’s financial input in PE and health care expenditure? 4) What is the relationship between the archery performance of different athletes (high-score group and low-score group)? 5) Can different the archery performance of different athletes (high-score group and low-score group) be predicated and evaluated?
This study aimed to conduct an empirical research on the aforementioned questions by adopting a new measurement system. Specifically, the objectives of this study are to 1) employ fuzzy mode to closely reflect students’ choices and perception of PE curricula and leisure environments; 2) employ the correlation coefficient of two-dimensional fuzzy numbers for evaluating students’ and teachers’ perception of PE and leisure environments; 3) assess the relationship between government’s financial input in PE and health care expenditure by applying fuzzy membership functions and quadratic regression; 4) evaluate the relationship between the archery performance of different athletes (high-score group and low-score group) by applying fuzzy product-moment correlation; and 5) evaluate and predict the explanatory power of athletes’ performance in archery (high-score group and low-score group) through the application of autoregressive functions and fuzzy time series.
In this study, purposive sampling was used to recruit the research participants. First, 12 students enrolled at a university in 2014 were surveyed using a fuzzy perception questionnaire on PE curricula. Next, 20 students and 12 teachers were surveyed using a questionnaire on the evaluation of leisure areas. All surveys were conducted with the respondents’ consent. Moreover, data (e.g., PE funding) published on government official websites (i.e., Sports Administration, Ministry of Education; Health Care Insurance Administration, Ministry of Health and Welfare; and Chinese Taipei Archery Association) were collected in this study.
This study applied fuzzy statistics to the analysis of educational policies and administration in sports, leisure, and PE. Furthermore, the fuzzy statistical analyses used in this study focused on fuzzy mode, fuzzy medians, defuzzification, fuzzy interval, time series, fuzzy time series, fuzzy product-moment correlation, quadratic regression, autoregressive functions, and transfer functions. Subsequently, these statistics and relevant data were analyzed using Minitab 16.0 and Microsoft Office Excel 2013.
The findings of this study are listed as follows:
1. The fuzzy mode can truly reflect the difference in students’ choices and perception of the PE and leisure curricula and environment.
2. Using two-dimensional fuzzy numbers can truly reflect students’ and teachers’ perception regarding the PE and leisure environment; furthermore, the results indicated that the scores of the green assessment indicator and comprehensive comparison were higher than those of other items.
3. Using quadratic regression can truly reflect the effects of the government’s financial input in PE on health care expenditure after a five-year period.
4. The application of fuzzy product-moment correlation can truly reflect the performance of male athletes in the high-score and low-score groups. In addition, female and male athletes in the high-score group also exhibited influence on archery performance.
5. Using autoregressive functions and fuzzy time series can truly reflect the explanatory power of athletes’ performance in archery and effectively predict the archery performance of male athletes in the high-score group during the 2013 Asian Games.
According to the findings, this study proposes the following five recommendations for Taiwanese PE authorities to evaluate policies and administrations in sports, leisure, and PE.
1. Fuzzy mode could be used to investigate the PE and leisure environment of universities because it enhances the authenticity of students’ choices.
2. In investigations on the indicators for assessing sports and leisure environments, two-dimensional fuzzy numbers could be employed to present the collective opinions of students and teachers. Because only the green indicator satisfied the standard of the statistical tests, other indicator-related government policies and administrative measures should be revised and improved.
3. The government should continue investing in sports activities and increase the amount of investment progressively.
4. Archery training programs for athletes could be planned according to contest goals and contents, and the proportion of male to female athletes can be determined according to current situations.
The performance of athletes predicted using fuzzy time series should be used to design training programs for athletes and to assess athletes’ ability to participate in international tournaments.
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