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題名：比較臺灣地區與日本、瑞典的死亡率下降趨勢對年金訂價的影響
書刊名：人口學刊
作者：林麗芬／林作民／吳蕙菁
作者(外文)：Lin, Fanny L. F.／Lin, Tzuch-min／Wu, Huey-jing
出版日期：2003
卷期：27
頁次：頁37-66
主題關鍵詞：存活函數曲線；死亡率改善幅度；平均壽命；世代生命表；年金訂價；Survival function curve；Mortality improvement；Mean life expectancy；Cohort life table；Annuity pricing
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(2) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:2
  • 共同引用共同引用:37
  • 點閱點閱:40
隨著醫療科技與經濟的進步，產生死亡率的下降，使得老年人口不斷增加，本文將研究人口老化的趨勢，利用台灣地區的生命表中各年齡死亡率改變情形，分析對出生平均壽命改變影響的貢獻度。分析中可見0-1 歲的貢獻度最大，而50-89 歲的貢獻度超過50% 以上。由於台灣地區人口的老化相當快速，本文將比較台灣地區與平均壽命相當長的日本與瑞典兩國各年齡死亡率改變情形對出生平均壽命改變貢獻度的差異，並依各國的死亡率預測模型來計算世代生命表的終身年金值，分析並比較死亡率下降趨勢對年金訂價的影響。
The elderly population has been increasing rapidly in recent years due to the improvement in medical care, fertility decline and economic development. In this paper, the trends of aging were discussed. We used Taiwan complete life tables to analyze the contribution of the increment of life expectancy of each age between two consecutive life tables. The results showed that ages 0 to 1 had the largest contribution, and more than 50% of the increment of mean life expectancy was contributed by ages 50 to 89. The aging trend is significant in Taiwan. Therefore, in this paper, we compared the mortality improvement trends between Taiwan and two supper-aged countries, Japan and Sweden. We also compared the differences in the contribution of improvement in mortality of different age groups on life expectancy at age 0 between two consecutive life tables. Finally, we used the estimated mortality improvement models to evaluate the annuity pricing under cohort life table consideration.
期刊論文
1.陳寬政、劉正、涂肇慶(19990700)。出生時平均餘命的長期趨勢分析：臺灣與日本。臺灣社會學研究，3，87-114。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.Heligman, L. M. A.、Pollard, J. H.(1980)。The Age Pattern of Mortality。Journal of the Institute of Actuaries，107(1)，49-80。  new window
3.Vaupel, J. W.、Yashin, A. I.(1987)。Repeated Resuscitation: How Lifesaving Alters Life Tables。Demography，24(1)，123-135。  new window
4.Carriere, J. F.(1992)。Parametric models for life tables。Transactions of the Society of Actuaries，44，77-99。  new window
5.Wetterstrand, W. H.(1981)。Parametric models for life insurance mortality data: Gompertz's law over time。Transactions of the Society of Actuaries，33，159-179。  new window
6.Tu, Jow-ching(19850900)。On Long-term Mortality Trends in Taiwan, 1906~1980。中國社會學刊，9，145-164。new window  new window
7.Vaupel, J. W.(1986)。How change in age-specific mortality affects life expectancy。Population Studies，40(1)，147-157。  new window
8.李文炯、周世宏(2002)。臺灣地區人口死亡率之參數模型。保險專刊，18(1)，28-37。new window  延伸查詢new window
9.余清祥(2002)。死亡率的降低對於退休金純保費的影響：臺灣地區的實證研究。壽險季刊，125，9-20。  延伸查詢new window
10.林麗芬(1996)。國民人口老化模式分析。壽險季刊，99，2-11。  延伸查詢new window
11.林麗芬(1996)。臺灣生命死力之混合存活參數模型－老人經濟安全制度之建立。保險專刊，44，162-179。new window  延伸查詢new window
12.林麗芬(1996)。個人年金生命表預測調幅研究。壽險季刊，101，82-103。  延伸查詢new window
13.林麗芬(2001)。由可靠度觀點論人口老化與保險。中華民國精算學會會報，25(1)，83-92。  延伸查詢new window
14.張秋政(2002)。因應人口與生活方式改變之臺灣社會安全制度。壽險季刊，124，2-26。  延伸查詢new window
15.Andersen, R. K.、Christensen, K.、Jeune, B.、Skytthe, A.、Vasegaard, L.、Vaupel, J. W.(1999)。Declining physical abilities with age: A cross-sectional study of older twins and centenarians in Denmark。Age and Ageing，28，373-377。  new window
16.Arriaga, E. E.(1984)。Mortality and explaining the change in life expectancies。Demography，21(1)，83-96。  new window
17.Herskind, A.、McGue, M.、Holm, N.、Sorensen, T.、Havald, B.、Vaupel, J.(1996)。The heritability of human longevity: A population based study of 2872 Danish twin pairs born 1870-1900。Human Genetics，97，319-323。  new window
18.Himes, C. L.、Preston, S. H.、Condran, G. A.(1994)。A relational model of mortality at older ages in low mortality countries。Population Index，48，269-291。  new window
19.Lee, R. D.、Carter, L.(1992)。Modeling and forecasting the time series of U. S. mortality。Journal of the American Statistical Association，87，659-675。  new window
20.Nathanson, C. A.(1984)。Sex differences in mortality。Annual Review of Sociology，10，191-213。  new window
21.Pollard, J. H.(1982)。The expectation of life and its relationship to mortality。Journal of the Institute of Actuaries，109，225-240。  new window
22.Pollard, J. H.(1988)。On the decomposition of changes in expectation of life and differentials in life expectancy。Demography，25(2)，265-276。  new window
23.Siler, W.(1983)。Parametric of mortality in human populations with widely varying life spans。Statistics in Medicine，2，373-380。  new window
24.Tenenbein, A.、Vanderhoof, I.(1980)。New mathematics laws of select and ultimate mortality。Transactions of the Society of Actuaries，32，119-158。  new window
25.Tuljapurkar, S.、Boe, C.(1998)。Mortality change and forecasting: How much and how little do we know?。NAAJ: North American Actuarial Journal，2(4)，13-47。  new window
26.Vaupel, J. W.、Yashin, A. I.、Manton, K. G.(1988)。Debilitation's aftermath: Stochastic process models of mortality。Mathematical Population Studies，1，21-48。  new window
27.Wilkin, J. C.(1981)。Recent trends in the mortality of the aged。Transactions of the Society of Actuaries，33，11-62。  new window
28.Yashin, A.、Manton, K.、Vaupel, J.(1985)。Mortality and aging in a heterogenous population: A stochastic process model with observed and unobserved variables。Theoretical Population Biology，27，154-175。  new window
會議論文
1.陳寬政、涂肇慶、楊靜利(1993)。臺灣地區人口老化的速度。中國人口學會人口與發展研討會。臺北：中國人口學會。  延伸查詢new window
2.林麗芬(2002)。Using dynamic reliability in estimating mortality at advanced ages。Orlando, FL。  new window
3.Willets, R. C.(1999)。Mortality in the next millennium。沒有紀錄。  new window
研究報告
1.Brown, J. R.、Mitchell, O. S.、Poterba, J. M.(2000)。Mortality Risk, Inflation Risk, and Annuity Products。Cambridge, MA：National Bureau of Economic Research。  new window
圖書
1.Department of Statistics, Ministry of Interior, R. O. C.(1994)。Complete Life Tables of Taiwan (1926-1991)。Complete Life Tables of Taiwan (1926-1991)。沒有紀錄。  new window
2.Manton, K. G.、Stallard, E.(1994)。Medical demography: Interaction of disability dynamics and mortality。Demography of Aging。Washington, DC。  new window
3.Vaupel, J. W.、Yashin, A. I.(1985)。The deviant dynamics of death in heterogenous populations。Sociological Methodology。San Francisco, CA。  new window
4.(1997)。Biodemography of Ageing。Biodemography of Ageing。Washington, DC。  new window
 
 
 
 
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