從1990年代迄今，中日關係不但仍延續「經熱政冷」的結構，而且進一步陷入安全困境中。本文從體系和雙邊利益層面觀察，認為中日關係結構中原本就存在容易使雙方陷入安全困境的根源。進入21世紀後，中日安全之所以日益惡化，就體系因素言，美日同盟的持續和發展取向使中日仍無法擺脫過制和反過制的體系框架。就雙邊利益層面言，歷史爭議和諸多現實利益爭執同步發展是導致雙方走向安全困境因素之一。其次，雙方在具有軍事安全意涵的能源領域上競爭日益激烈，無疑又為雙方安全關係的緩和平添新的變數。基於安全困境不利雙方未來發展，中日仍都具有緩和關係的意願，惟此將端視雙方是否能夠通過持續性戰略對話、恢復領導人互訪，化解雙方在美日同盟上的相互猜疑，並且擺脫能源層面的惡性競爭而定。

Since the last decade of the 20th century to present, the structure of Sino-Japan relationship is primarily characterized by two features: the fast-growing economic cooperation and the stagnant developments in the political part, which continue and further evolve into security dilemma recently. This paper presents an observation within the frameworks of “system” as well as “bilateral interest,” and we think that there are existing natural origins in the structure of Sino-Japan relationship that make the security dilemma very likely occur. Starting from the beginning of the 21st century, the U.S.-Japan security alliance has been developing steadily so that China and Japan cannot escape from the cycle of containing and counter-containing as far as “system” is concerned. From the point of view of “bilateral interest,” conflictions due to historic reason and various interests of reality simultaneously occurring also account for the security dilemma. In addition, these two countries have been competing severely for the energy source, which is closely related to the issues of military and security, and thus some new variables are introduced into the bilateral relation and security. Since security dilemma is harmful for their future development, both China and Japan are still willing to consider the reconciliation with each other, which can be expected only via continued strategic dialogues, resuming visits of national leaders, resolving the mutual suspicion over the U.S.-Japan security alliance, and ending the severe competition in energy sources.