摘要 散裝航運市場趨近於完全競爭市場，市場運價高低主要取決於船貨供需，同 時亦將影響船東收益與傭船人成本支出。依船舶載重噸不同，散裝船主要區分為 海岬型(Cape size)、巴拿馬極限型(Panamax size)、超輕便極限型(Supramax size) 與輕便型(Handy size)四種。於不同市場環境下，巴拿馬極限型船不僅可與海岬 型船亦可與超輕便極限型船進行部分運務競爭。BPI 指數之波動，顯示巴拿馬極 限型市場運價之漲跌。過去研究大部分探討衍生性金融商品與船舶價格，並未針 對特定船型市場進行市場與運價指數之分析。本文利用巴拿馬極限型船噸供給與 市場貨源需求進行分析，採用灰色理論(Grey Theory)之灰預測GM(1,1)殘差修正 模式，針對不同期間BPI 指數趨勢進行預測，並進行模式評估與區間預測之討 論。研究顯示，以市場供需而言，船噸供給與貨源需求近年均有成長；BPI 指數 趨勢方面，短期內雖呈現上漲趨勢，然就中長期而言，則會呈現下跌趨勢發展。 研究結果可提供船東或傭船人，依其風險偏好程度，作為制定傭船決策之參考。

Abstract The bulk shipping market is almost a perfect competitive market. Since the market freight rates and charter hires are mainly decided by vessel tonnage supply and cargo source demand of the market; meanwhile, they affect owners’ shipping revenues and charterers’ operational costs. In the bulk shipping services, the vessels can be divided into four categories by the vessel’s deadweight tonnages: Cape size, Panamax size, Supramax size and Handy size. Under certain market conditions, the Panamax vessel can compete with not only Cape size vessels but also Supramax vessels on partial transportation activities. Further, the swing of the BPI index directly indicated the price fluctuation of freight rates and charter hires in the Panamax market. Moreover, since most of the earlier researches only discussed related derivative instruments and vessel prices; they did not focus on the particular target for analysis of the market and its index. The vessel tonnage supplies and cargo source demands were used to analyze the present bulk shipping market. Besides, the Grey Model GM(1,1) of Grey Theory with the recursive residual model was applied to forecast the trends of BPI index in different periods, and then evaluated the models and discussed the results of the interval estimation. To conclude, these results showed that the vessel supply and cargo demand was getting increasing recently in terms of market supply and demand. In the future, the BPI index will take an upward turn in the short-term; however it may become downwards in the medium- and long-term. The findings of this research can be used as a good reference to owners and charterers when they are making chartering decisions, which differ from the degree of operational risks.