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題名:海上船員人力供需模式之構建與應用
作者:王淑滿
作者(外文):Su-Man Wang
校院名稱:銘傳大學
系所名稱:管理科學研究所博士班
指導教授:林進財
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2005
主題關鍵詞:船員人力供需馬可夫鏈灰色理論Grey theoryMarkov chainManpower demand and supplySeafarers
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 點閱點閱:52
台灣為海島型國家,航運事業之發展有其重要性。如何有效運用海上人力資源,是未來國家經濟發展與航運企業成長所重視之課題。本文主要根據馬可夫鏈(Markov chain)與灰色理論(Grey theory),進行海上船員人力供需模式之構建。並以聯合國貿易暨發展委員會(UNCTAD)、我國交通部、考選部、船長公會與中華海員工會之統計資料,分別應用海上航行員與輪機員供需模式進行驗證分析。本文主要研究結果如下:
(一) 構建了台灣地區海上船員之供給與需求預測模式,並預測台灣海上船員總供給與總需求人數。台灣海上船員不僅年年供不應求,且缺口現象逐年遞增,2005年至2007年船員總數供需缺口分別為2,905人、3,038人、3,134人。
(二) 有關船員晉升機率,大副為13.45%,船副為23.29%,大管輪為12.50%,管輪為19.61%。服務於海上工作之平均時間,船長、大副與船副分別為11年4.67個月、4年3個月及2年4.26個月;輪機長、大管輪與管輪,分別為13年1.07個月、4年7.58個月及1年7.12個月。
以上研究結果可提供政府相關單位,作為擬定台灣船員人力資源之參考,以利台灣航運事業之發展。
Taiwan is an island nation so shipping industry development is very important. How to efficiently utilize ocean manpower resources becomes a valuable subject to our nation’s future economic development and shipping industry growth. This research is mainly based on Markov Theory and Grey Theory to construct demand and supply models of manpower of seafarers. Furthermore, this research uses the latest statistics from UNCTAD, the Ministry of Transportation and Communications, the Ministry of Examination, the Master Association and Chinese Seamen’s Union in Taiwan to analyze and verify demand and supply models of manpower of deck officers and engineering officers, respectively. The most important outcomes of this research are listed below:
1. Construct a demand and supply model of Taiwan seafarers and to forecast their total demand and supply. The supply of seafarers is in shortage every year and the imbalance grows year after year. The gap between seafarer demand and supply forecasted from years 2005 to 2007 are 2,905, 3,038 and 3,134, respectively.
2. The promotion rates of chief officer, ship officer, first engineer and second engineer are 13.45%, 23.29%, 12.50% and 19.61%, respectively. The average length of service of master, chief officer and ship officer on board are 11 years 4.67 months, 4 years 3 months and 2 years 4.26 months, respectively. The average on board length of service for chief engineer, first engineer and second engineer, correspondingly, are 13 years 1.07 months, 4 years 7.58 months and 1 year 7.12 months.
The findings of this research will be of valuable reference for pertinent authorities when setting manpower planning to benefit development of ocean business in Taiwan.
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