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題名:臺北市中古屋大廈模糊定價與分析
書刊名:品質學報
作者:陳建鈞陳琨太張秉裕
作者(外文):Chen, Jian-jiunChen, Kuen-taiChang, Ping-yu
出版日期:2012
卷期:19:4
頁次:頁349-372
主題關鍵詞:房地產價格倒傳遞類神經網路調適性網路模糊推論系統預測Price of real estateBack propagation neural networksAdaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systemForecast
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
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  • 共同引用共同引用:26
  • 點閱點閱:116
本研究主要目的係針對臺北市中古屋大廈使用倒傳遞類神經網路(Back Propagation Neural Networks, BPNN)和調適性網路模糊推論系統(Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System, ANFIS)進行價格預測,以提高房地產價格預測的品質。本研究所使用的變數可分為明確、模糊變數兩種。主要研究流程有三項:(1)針對臺北市不分群進行預測,(2)透過集群一、二的變數篩選找出最佳明確變數組合,(3)以內湖區、大安區為例,比較加入模糊變數(生活機能、周邊環境條件、預期發展潛力) 的與否之影響。主要的成果有三項:(1)僅以單一行政區進行預測的效果較臺北市不分群、分群來的良好,(2)內湖區加入模糊變數進行預測的MAPE(Mean Absolute Percentage Error)為6.15%,是本研究最佳的預測效果,(3)ANFIS 模型在內湖區以明確變數、加入模糊變數兩種組合進行預測的效果皆較BPNN來的良好,且更能有效地對模糊變數進行訓練與預測。
In pricing of real estates, subjective opinions can never be overlooked. As Fuzzy interpretation has demonstrated its strength in translating subjective opinions into quantified variables, it is now a handy tool when problems involve fuzziness. The major purpose of this paper is to introduce fuzzy variables to forecast the price of pre-owned house in Taipei City. For comparison, two methods, namely Back Propagation Neural Networks (BPNN) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), are implemented. After selection of variables, we include 5 Crisp and three Fuzzy variables in our model. Data from two Districts in Taipei city are analyzed and compared, we conclude that (1) Prediction with single administrative district is better than pooling all data; (2) Introducing Fuzzy variables improves the prediction significantly; (3) ANFIS outperformed BPNN in all aspects.
期刊論文
1.賴碧瑩(20071200)。應用類神經網路於電腦輔助大量估價之研究。住宅學報,16(2),43-65。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.Mok, Henry M. K.、Chan, Patrick P. K.、Cho, Yin Sun(1995)。A hedonic Price Model for Private Properties in Hong Kong。The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,10(1),37-48。  new window
3.陳奉瑤、楊依蓁(20071200)。個別估價與大量估價之準確性分析。住宅學報,16(2),67-84。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.Limsombunchai, V.、Gan, C.、Lee, M.(2004)。House Price Prediction: Hedonic Price Model vs. Artificial Neural Network。American Journal of Applied Sciences,1(3),193-201。  new window
5.蔡瑞煌、高明志、張金鶚(19990800)。類神經網路應用於房地產估價之研究。住宅學報,8,1-20。new window  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.魏如龍(2003)。類神經網路於不動產價格預估效果之研究(碩士論文)。國立政治大學。  延伸查詢new window
其他
1.連經宇、陳彥仲(1999)。模糊理論在住宅消費決策行爲之實例應用。  延伸查詢new window
2.張金鶚、范垂爐(1993)。房地產眞實交易價格之研究。  延伸查詢new window
3.張斐章、張麗秋、黃浩倫(2003)。類神經網路理論與實務。  延伸查詢new window
4.J. Guan, J. Zurada and A. S. Levitan(2008)。An adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system based approach to real estate property assessment。  new window
5.Z. X. Li(2007)。Using fUzzy neural network in real estate prices prediction。  new window
 
 
 
 
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