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來源文獻資料
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外文摘要
引文資料
題名:
「東協加一」的貿易創造與貿易轉向效果之研究
書刊名:
國際關係學報
作者:
吳靜芝
/
翁嘉禧
作者(外文):
Wu, Chin-chih
/
Weng, Jia-hsi
出版日期:
2013
卷期:
36
頁次:
頁105-146
主題關鍵詞:
東協加一
;
分量迴歸
;
引力模型
;
貿易創造
;
貿易轉向
;
CAFTA
;
Quantile regression analysis
;
Gravity model
;
Trade creation
;
Trade diversion
原始連結:
連回原系統網址
相關次數:
被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
排除自我引用:0
共同引用:0
點閱:109
「東協加一」已於2010年元旦啟動,此自由貿易區約十九億人口,與全球的貿易總額高達4.5兆美元,約占全球貿易額的13.4%;且「東協加一」的產值僅次歐洲聯盟(EU)和北美自由貿易區(NAFTA),是全球第三大的自由貿易,因此「東協加一」在國際整合中,備受矚目。根據國際貿易理論,各國可透過區域經濟整合,來消除貿易障礙以及降低交易成本,進而提高各國的靜態福利效果。本研究利用1995至2010年間118國的追蹤資料(Panel Data),並採用Koenker (2004)之分量迴歸法(Quantile Regression)探討東協的貿易創造與貿易轉向效果。實證結果顯示:「東協加一」的成立非但未造成貿易轉向現象,且還產生可觀的貿易創造效果,且貿易量愈高其貿易創造效果也愈大。
以文找文
"CAFTA" was activated on the New Year's Day of 2010. In this free trade area, there is an approximate 1.9 billion population and over US$4.5 trillion total value of global trading, which shares 13.4% of overall global trading volume. As the third largest free trading area in the world, the output value of "CAFTA" is only second to EU and NAFTA, therefore the international integration of "CAFTA" is highly anticipated. According to the theory of international trade, by regional economic integration, countries may eliminate trading barriers and further reduce transaction costs, thereby increase the static welfare efficiency domestically. This study discusses the trade creation effect and trade diversion effect of "CAFTA" through quantile regression analysis of Koenker (2004), using the panel data from 118 countries between 1995 and 2010. The empirical result indicates that the establishment of the free trade zone of "CAFTA" not only didn't cause the trade diversion effect, but also generated significant trade creation effect, furthermore, higher volume of trade results in larger trade creation effect.
以文找文
期刊論文
1.
Burfisher, M. E.、Robinson, S.、Thierfelder, K.(2001)。The Impact of NAFTA on the United States。Journal of Economic Perspectives,15,125-144。
2.
Bussiere, M.、Fidrmuc, J.、Schnatz, B.(2008)。EU Enlargement and Trade Integration: Lessons from a Gravity Model。Review of Development Economics,12(3),562-576。
3.
Carrere, C.(2006)。Revisiting Regional Trading Agreements with Proper Specification of the Gravity Model。European Economic Review,50,223-247。
4.
Cemat, Lucian(2001)。Assessing regional trade arrangements: are southsouth RTAs more trade diverting?。Global Economy Quarterly,2(3),235-259。
5.
Ghosh, S.、Yamarik, S.(2004)。Does Trade Creation Measure Up? A Reexamination of the Effects of Regional Trading Arrangements。Economics Letters,82,213-219。
6.
Helliwell, John F.(1997)。National Borders, Trade and Migration。Pacific Economic Review,2(3),165-185。
7.
Kreinin, M. E(1972)。Some Economic Consequences of Reverse Preferences。Journal of Common Market Studies,11,161-172。
8.
Lamarche, C.(2010)。Robust Penalized Quantile Regression Estimation for Panel Data。Journal of Econometrics,157,396-408。
9.
Lee, J. W.、Shin, K.(2006)。Does Regionalism Lead to More Global Trade Integration in East Asia?。The North American Journal of Economics and Finance,17,283-301。
10.
Magee, C. S.(2008)。New Measures of Trade Creation and Trade Diversion。Journal of International Economics,75,349-362。
11.
Panagariya, A.(2000)。Preferential Trade Liberalization: The Traditional Theory and New Developments。Journal of Economic Literature,38,287-331。
12.
Papazoglou, C.、Pentecost, E. J.、Marques, H.(2006)。A Gravity Model Forecast of the Potential Trade Effects of EU Enlargement: Lessons from 2004 and Path-dependency in Integration。World Economy,29,1077-1089。
13.
Poyhonen, P.(1963)。A tentative model for the flows of trade between countries。Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv,90(1),93-100。
14.
Vicard, V.(2009)。On Trade Creation and Regional Trade Agreements: does depth matter。Review of World Economics,145,167-187。
15.
Voon, J.、Yuea, R.(2003)。China-ASEAN Export Rivalry in the US Market: The Importance of the HK-China Production Synergy and the Asian Financial Crisis。Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy,8,157-179。
16.
Bergstrand, J. H.(1989)。The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade。Review of Economics & Statistics,71,143-153。
17.
Soloaga, Isidro、Winters, L. Alan(2001)。Regionalism in the Nineties: What Effect on trade?。The North American Journal of Economics and Finance,12(1),1-29。
18.
Eichengreen, Barry、Irwin, Douglas A.(1995)。Trade Blocs, Currency Blocs and the Reorientation of World Trade in the 1930s。Journal of International Economics,38,1-24。
19.
Koenker, R.(2004)。Quantile regression for longitudinal data。Journal of Multivariate Analysis,91,74-89。
20.
Anderson, James E.(1979)。A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation。The American Economic Review,69(1),106-116。
21.
Feenstra, Robert Christopher(1998)。Integration of Trade and Disintegration of Production in the Global Economy。Journal of Economic Perspectives,12(4),31-50。
22.
Naya, Seiji F.、Plummer, Michael G.(1997)。Economic co-Operation after 30 years of ASEAN。ASEAN Economic Bulletin,14(2),117-126。
23.
Tongzon, J. L.(2005)。ASEAN-China Free Trade Area: A Bane or Boon for ASEAN Countries?。The World Economy,28(2),191-210。
24.
Mccallum, John(1995)。National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns。American Economic Review,85(3),615-623。
25.
Feenstra, R. C.、Markusen, J. A.、Rose, A. K.(2001)。Using the Gravity Equation to Differentiate among Alternative Theories of Trade。Canadian Journal of Economics,34(2),430-447。
26.
Gundlach, Gregory T.、Achrol, Ravi S.、Mentzer, John T.(1995)。The Structure of Commitment in Exchange。Journal of Marketing,59(1),78-92。
27.
Bergstrand, J. H.(1985)。The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence。Review of Economics and Statistics,67,474-481。
28.
Koenker, Roger W.、Bassett, Gilbert W. Jr.(1978)。Regression Quantiles。Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society,46(1),33-50。
會議論文
1.
Magee, C. S.(2004)。Trade Creation, Trade Diversion, and Endogenous Regionalism。Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings,(會議日期: 2004/06/17-20)。Rhode Island:Brown University。
圖書
1.
Alho, K. O.(2003)。The Impact of Regionalism on Trade in Europe。Helsinki:The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy。
2.
Dhar, S.、Panagariya, A.(1994)。Is East Asia Less Open than North America and the European Economic Community?。Washington, DC:The World Bank Publication。
3.
Hufbauer, Cary Clyde、Schott, Jeffrey J.(1993)。NAFTA: An Assessment。Washington, DC:Peterson Institute for International Economic。
4.
Langhammer, R. J.、Hiemenz, U.(1990)。Regional Integration among Developing Countries: Opportunities, Obstacles, and Option。Tubingen:J.C.B MOHR。
5.
World Trade Organization(2003)。World Trade Report 2003。Geneva:World Trade Organization。
6.
Linnemann, H.(1996)。An Econometric Study of International Trade Flows。Amsterdam:North Holland Publishing Company。
7.
Tinbergen, Jan(1962)。Shaping the World Economy: Suggestions for an International Economic Policy。New York, NY:The Twentieth Century Fund。
8.
Frankel, Jeffrey A.(1997)。Regional Trading Blocs in the World Economic System。Washington, DC:Institute for International Economics。
9.
Wooldridge, Jeffrey M.(2006)。Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach。Thomson South-Western。
10.
Viner, Jacob(1950)。The Customs Union Issue。New York:Cornegie Endowment for International Peace。
11.
Helpman, Elhanan、Krugman, Paul R.(1985)。Market Structure and Foreign Trade: Increasing Returns, Imperfect Competition, and the International Economy。MIT Press。
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