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題名:以離散型計數資料統計模式探討鐵路平交道事故風險因素--以臺鐵為例
書刊名:運輸計劃
作者:胡守任 引用關係紀佳伶
作者(外文):Hu, Shou-renJi, Jia-ling
出版日期:2014
卷期:43:2
頁次:頁115-142
主題關鍵詞:鐵路平交道事故風險計數資料統計模式彈性分析Highway-railroad grade crossingCrash riskCounted data statistical modelElasticity analysis
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:1
  • 共同引用共同引用:13
  • 點閱點閱:53
鐵路平交道為鐵公路交會之處,鐵公路用路人共同使用該路權。儘管臺鐵局所轄的平交道數相對有限,不過近年來國內平交道事故頻傳,造成人民生命財產的損失,以及顯著的交通延滯與社會成本支出。因此,有必要深入探討平交道事故的主要肇因與風險水準,據以研提有效的改善措施。本研究以離散型計數資料統計模式,分別探討鐵路平交道事故頻率、事故衝擊程度,以及事故風險水準。為完整地評估鐵路平交道之事故風險程度,本研究從離散型計數資料模式家族的卜瓦松迴歸、負二項迴歸,以及零膨脹卜瓦松迴歸模式中,選擇較適當之模式,據以構建鐵路平交道事故頻率與事故風險模式;另以排序性羅吉斯迴歸模式,構建平交道事故衝擊程度模式。實證研究結果顯示,每日列車數與公路年平均日交通量等交通曝光量相關因素,為平交道事故的主要肇因;此外,平交道寬度與道路等級等因素,亦為可能的影響因素。最後,針對所構建的模式進行彈性分析與勝算比分析,以提供鐵路平交道主管機關在推動相關安全改善措施前之參考。
A highway-railroad grade crossing (HRGX) is a spatial location where highway and rail users share the same right-of-way. Despite the number of HRGXs managed by the Taiwan Railways Administration (TRA) is relatively few, a significant number of traffic collisions and severe consequences at the HRGXs in Taiwan has signaled an urgent need for appropriate models to identify the key factors that are associated with the casualty risk levels of an HRGX. This study uses counted data statistical models where Poisson, negative binominal and zero-inflated Poisson regression models are evaluated to analyze crash frequency and risk levels in terms of number of fatalities and injuries in a given time period. Besides, crash severity in terms of number of equivalent injuries per traffic collision is modeled by the ordered logistic regression approach. In the empirical study, using the recent crash and HRGX inventory data provided by the TRA, this study aims to analyze the causal relationships between crash frequency and/or severity and a set of influence factors. The empirical study results indicate that traffic exposure related variables such as daily trains and/or highway average annual daily traffic are the key factors. Besides, grade crossing width and highway type also play different roles on the occurrence and/or consequence of a traffic collision(s) at HRGXs. Finally, elasticity and odds ratio analysis based on the calibrated models are also conducted. The ultimate goal of this research is to provide the HGRX administrative office with a reference before implementing related countermeasures for safety improvement.
期刊論文
1.Austin, R. D.、Carson, J. L.(2002)。An Alternative Accident Prediction Model for Highway-Rail Interfaces", Accident Analysis。and Prevention,34(1),31-42。  new window
2.Park, Y. J.、Saccomanno, F. F.(2005)。Collision Frequency Analysis Using Tree-Based Stratification", Transportation Research Record。Journal of the Transportation Research Board,1908,121-129。  new window
3.Saccomanno, F. F.、Lai, X.(2005)。A Model for Evaluating Countermeasures at Highway-Railway Grade Crossings", Transportation Research Record。Journal of the Transportation Research Board,1918,18-25。  new window
4.Oh, J.、Washington, S. P.、Nam, D.(2006)。Accident Prediction Model for Railway-Highway Interfaces。Accident Analysis and Prevention,38(2),346-356。  new window
5.Raub, R. A.(2006)。Examination of Highway-Rail Grade Crossing Collisions over 10 Years in Seven Midwestern States。ITE Journal,76(4),21-26。  new window
6.Ayyub, B. M.(2003)。Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics, Chapman。  new window
7.蔡明志(20000300)。風險管理在大眾運輸安全管理管制課題之發展應用。運輸計劃,29(1),181-211。new window  延伸查詢new window
8.Vuong, Quang H.(1989)。Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-Nested Hypotheses。Econometrica,57(2),307-333。  new window
會議論文
1.胡守任、李治綱、李薇婷(2009)。以計數性資料統計模式探討平交道事故風險。中華民國運輸學會第25屆學術論文研討會。  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.翁茂城(1975)。綜合平交道事故複因素迴歸模型之研究(博士論文)。國立成功大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.候光義(1980)。鐵路平交道肇事分析與安全改善之研究(碩士論文)。國立成功大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.鄭子良(2002)。先進偵測系統對鐵路平交道安全之影響研究(碩士論文)。國立中央大學。  延伸查詢new window
4.詹坤益(2002)。先進平交道安全控制蓄意闖越行為之系統設計(碩士論文)。國立成功大學。  延伸查詢new window
5.施鈞明(2004)。應用系統模擬於平交道之風險分析(碩士論文)。國立成功大學。  延伸查詢new window
6.唐鵬州(2006)。平交道模擬模式建構與肇事風險分析(碩士論文)。國立成功大學。  延伸查詢new window
7.蔡孟紋(2006)。平交道事故分析之研究(碩士論文)。國立成功大學。  延伸查詢new window
8.楊凱評(2007)。平交道事故頻率與衝擊分析(碩士論文)。國立成功大學。  延伸查詢new window
9.施伯杰(2008)。以故障樹與事件樹分析法探討平交道事故風險(碩士論文)。國立成功大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.交通部運輸研究所(1996)。交通部運輸研究所。  延伸查詢new window
2.前臺灣省政府交通處(1998)。臺灣地區鐵路平交道改善規劃。  延伸查詢new window
3.Office of Rail Regulation(2006)。HMRI Specific Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) Checklist。London, U.K.。  new window
4.交通部(1996)。鐵路立體交叉及平交道防護設施設置標準與費用分擔規則。  延伸查詢new window
5.交通部(2011)。公路路線設計規範。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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