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題名:我國宣告促進經濟成長之合作協定政策對股票市場的報酬與波動性影響
書刊名:管理資訊計算
作者:蔡穗馥 引用關係李欣怡
作者(外文):Tsai, Sui-fuLi, Shin-yi
出版日期:2014
卷期:3:特刊
頁次:頁11-21
主題關鍵詞:促進經濟成長之合作協定股票報酬股票波動性GARCH模型Government policyStock returnsStock volatilityGARCH model
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:1
  • 共同引用共同引用:12
  • 點閱點閱:9
本研究主要針對從2008年1月1日至2013年6月30日為期間,有關我國政府宣布促進經濟成長之合作協定共計7項政策,並且使用GARCH模型檢定研究期間政府所宣告之政策,探討對於國內股票市場之報酬與波動性是否造成影響。研究結果顯示促進經濟成長之合作協定中當政府宣告「金融監理合作備忘錄」和「兩岸經濟合作架構協議」對大盤、電子類以及非電子金融類的報酬有顯著影響;「臺新經濟夥伴協議」對金融類的報酬有顯著之影響;「開放大陸合格境內投資機構」對非電子金融類的報酬有顯著之影響。對大盤波動性有顯著影響的是當政府宣告「兩岸經濟合作架構協議」;對非電子金融類波動性有顯著影響的是「開放大陸合格境內機構投資人」、「兩岸經濟合作架構協議」以及「兩岸服務貿易協定」等政策。本研究發現政府為促進經濟活動所提出之政策應當有正面的激勵效果,但其結果對股票市場之影響並無顯著影響甚至呈現負向的相關性,因此我們認為政府在宣告此類政策的同時,需要將具體的相關政策內容公布並明確宣導。
This research studies whether Taiwan's stock market returns and volatility are influenced by the significant events: the government announced 7 policies of enhancive economic growth agreement, or not occurred from January 1, 2008 to June 30, 2013. We use the GARCH model to analyze the announced policy in the stock markets daily closing price data to observe stock returns and volatility changes. In the cooperation agreement of enhancive economic growth, the government announced "MOU" and "ECFA" significantly impact the rate of returns in TAIEX, electronic stocks and non-electronic & financial stocks; the "ASTEP" has significantly impact on the rate of returns in financial stocks; the "QDll" has a significantly impact on the rate of returns in non-electronic & financial stock. Due to the government announced "ECFA", there is a significant impact on the volatility of TAIEX; there are significant impacts on non-electronic & financial stock’s volatility because of "QDll", "ECFA" and "TISA". The study shows that some of the government policies proposed in order to enhance economic, but the influences of stock markets result in insignificance or even negative correlation. Therefore, we consider that when the government is announcing policy, they must publish the concrete policy and advocate it clearly.
期刊論文
1.范姜肱、鄭鎮樑、李雨璿(20110300)。海峽兩岸簽訂ECFA後對臺灣壽險業之影響--風險與效益評估。保險經營與制度,10(1),49-77。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.吳佳勳、徐世勳(20041000)。「臺紐自由貿易協定」的洽簽對臺、紐、澳經濟影響之一般均衡分析。臺灣經濟預測與政策,35(1),1-39。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.鄭正鈐(20130300)。ECFA對臺灣經濟的影響--以印刷產業關鍵性研究。東亞論壇,479,33-49。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.李靖文(20130300)。CEPA與ECFA對香港與臺灣酒店、飯店產業發展之比較研究。商業現代化學刊,7(1),95-115。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.Darrat, A. F.(1988)。On Fiscal Policy and the Stock Market。Journal of Money,20(3),353-363。  new window
6.Laopodis, N. T.(2007)。Fiscal Policy and Stock Market Efficiency: Evidence for the \United States。Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance,49(2),633-650。  new window
7.Tangjitprom, N.(2012)。The Review of Macroeconomic Factors and Stock Returns。International Business Research,5(8),107-115。  new window
8.Engle, R. F.、Lilien, D. M.、Robins, R. P.(1987)。Estimating time varying risk premia in the term structure: The ARCH-M model。Econometrica,55(2),391-407。  new window
9.Bollerslev, Tim(1986)。Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity。Journal of Econometrics,31(3),307-327。  new window
10.Fama, Eugene F.、Fisher, Lawrence、Jensen, Michael C.、Roll, Richard J.(1969)。The adjustment of stock prices to new information。International Economic Review,10(1),1-21。  new window
11.Granger, Clive William John、Newbold, Paul(1974)。Spurious Regressions in Econometrics。Journal of econometrics,2(2),111-120。  new window
12.Engle, Robert F.(1982)。Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation。Econometrica,50(4),987-1008。  new window
學位論文
1.王楨德(2013)。兩岸經濟合作架構協議對台灣產業的影響 ─以自行車產業為例(碩士論文)。東海大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.鄭新強(2007)。區域經濟整合趨勢下對台灣主要產業貿易之影響(碩士論文)。國立高雄大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.楊浩彥、郭迺鋒、林政勳(2013)。實用財經計量方法:Eviews之應用。臺北:雙葉書廊。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.楊奕農(2009)。時間序列分析:經濟與財務上之應用。雙葉書廊。  延伸查詢new window
3.沈中華、李建然(2000)。事件研究法--財務與會計實證研究必備。華泰文化事業公司。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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