:::

詳目顯示

回上一頁
題名:金融危機事件對臺灣股票市場的報酬與波動性之影響
書刊名:東吳經濟商學學報
作者:蔡穗馥 引用關係吳億亭
作者(外文):Tsai, Sui-fuWu, Yi-ting
出版日期:2013
卷期:81
頁次:頁69-93
主題關鍵詞:金融危機股票波動性股票報酬GARCH模型Financial crisisStock market returnStock volatilityGARCH model
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(2) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:2
  • 共同引用共同引用:57
  • 點閱點閱:30
本研究探討當全球發生金融危機時是否對於台灣股票市場之報酬與波動性造成影響,針對1992年1月1日至2013年5月31日期間所發生之全球性金融危機事件進行研究。本研究採用GARCH模型來檢定,結果發現:當全球發生金融危機時皆會對台灣股市之報酬或波動性造成影響。貨幣匯率問題所引發之亞洲金融風暴,不只對股票報酬有負向影響也對波動性產生正向影響,表示股票波動振盪大且偏向下跌的走勢。由於台灣身處亞洲地區,所受到的衝擊最為直接,事件的爆發如連鎖效應一般,因此股市波動震盪的程度較為顯著;因為波動震盪過於劇烈,不利風險趨避者操作,但風險追逐者或許可以利用短進短出從中賺取利差。墨西哥經濟危機、美國次貸、雷曼兄弟與歐洲主權債務等四件危機事件對於台灣股市報酬有顯著的負相關,表示股市呈現直直下跌趨勢,對於台灣股市影響甚鉅,恐會造成嚴重虧損,不利投資者進場;不過適合融券者先拋售股票,等待股價趨於穩定時再將股票贖回,但是必須要考慮到融券的交易成本。
This research studies whether Taiwan's stock market returns and volatility are influenced by the significant events, such as financial crisis, or not occurred from January 1, 1992 to May 31, 2013. We use the GARCH model to analyze the market's daily closing price data on stock returns and volatility changes. It is known that the Asian financial crisis in 1997 has a negative impact on the stock returns and a positive impact on volatility. Although volatile shocks are hard to operate for the risker, the risker may be able to take advantage of short chase into short earn spreads out. Events, such as Tequila Effect in 1994, America Subprime Mortgage in 2007, Lehman Brothers in 2008, and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis in 2009, entailed significant negative returns to Taiwan's stock market. Investors in Taiwan stock market experienced serious capital losses. Short selling could immediately sell the stock and wait to redeem until the stock price tends to be stable, but the investors must consider the transaction costs of short selling. When the United States and European financial crises occur, Taiwanese investors should be careful and pay much attention to the subsequent reports and events. When the financial crisis occurs, we recommend that investors would be better off if they keep waiting and delay their deals.
期刊論文
1.Al-Rjoub, S. A. M.(2011)。Business Cycles, Financial Crises, and Stock Volatility in Jordan Stock Exchange。International Journal of Economic Perspectives,5(1),83-95。  new window
2.Al-Rjoub, S. A. M.、Azzam H.(2012)。Financial Crises, Stock Returns and Volatility in An Emerging Stock Market:The Case of Jordan。Journal of Economic Studies,39(2),178-211。  new window
3.Coudert, V.、Couharde, C.、Mignon V.(2011)。Exchange Rate Volatility Across Financial Crises。Journal of Banking & Finance,35(11),3010-3018。  new window
4.Ezzine, H.、Olivero B.(2013)。Evolution of Corporate Governance during the Recent Financial Crises。International Journal of Business & Finance Research,7(1),85-100。  new window
5.Rengasamy, E.(2012)。Sovereign Debt Crisis in the Euro Zone and its Impact on the BRICS's Stock Index Returns and Volatility。Economics and Finance Review,2(2),37-46。  new window
6.Righi, M. B.、Ceretta P. S.(2011)。Analyzing the Structural Behavior of Volatility in the Major European Markets during the Greek Crisis。Economics Bulletin,31(4),3016-3029。  new window
7.Schwert, G. W.(2011)。Stock Volatility during the Recent Financial Crisis。European Financial Management,17(5),789-805。  new window
8.Fang, W. S.(2001)。Stock Return Process and Expected Depreciation over the Asian Financial Crisis。Applied Economics,33(7),905-912。  new window
9.Frankel, Jeffrey A.、Rose, Andrew K.(1996)。Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: An Empirical Treatment。Journal of International Economics,41(3/4),351-366。  new window
10.Engle, R. F.(1982)。Autoregressive Conditional Heteroske- dasticity with Estimates of the Variance of U.K. Inflation。Econometrica,50(4),987-1008。  new window
11.Engle, R. F.、Lilien, D. M.、Robins, R. P.(1987)。Estimating time varying risk premia in the term structure: The ARCH-M model。Econometrica,55(2),391-407。  new window
12.郭秋榮(20090300)。全球金融風暴之成因、對我國影響及因應對策之探討。經濟研究,9,59-89。new window  延伸查詢new window
13.Bollerslev, Tim(1986)。Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity。Journal of Econometrics,31(3),307-327。  new window
14.Granger, Clive William John、Newbold, Paul(1974)。Spurious Regressions in Econometrics。Journal of econometrics,2(2),111-120。  new window
15.Said, S. E.、Dickey, David A.(1984)。Testing for Unit Roots in Autoregressive-Moving Average Models of Unknown Order。Biometrika,71(3),599-607。  new window
16.Reinhart, C.、Kaminsky, G.(1998)。Financial crises in Asia and Latin America: Then and now。The American Economic Review,88(2),444-448。  new window
研究報告
1.Mishkin, F. S.、White E. N.(2002)。Market Crashes and Their Aftermath: Implications for Monetary Policy。  new window
學位論文
1.陳秋能(2010)。80''年代後金融危機下國際股市之連動效果:以金磚四國為研究對象(碩士論文)。國立高雄第一科技大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.黃昭達(2008)。國際航空產業股票報酬之波動性研究(碩士論文)。國立高雄第一科技大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.陳旭昇(2009)。時間序列分析:總體經濟與財務金融之應用。臺北市:東華書局。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.黃昱程(2011)。現代金融市場。台北:華泰文化事業股份有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
3.黃仁德、林進煌(20070000)。國際金融危機的經驗與啟示。臺北:聯經。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.沈中華、李建然(2000)。事件研究法--財務與會計實證研究必備。華泰文化事業公司。  延伸查詢new window
圖書論文
1.Pareto, V.(1964)。Les Crises Économiques。Cours D’Économie Politique。Geneva:Librairie Droz。  new window
 
 
 
 
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
:::
無相關書籍
 
無相關著作
 
無相關點閱
 
QR Code
QRCODE