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引文資料
題名:
利害相關者對颱洪災害預警系統規劃要素之價值評估:多屬性效用理論之應用
書刊名:
臺灣公共衛生雜誌
作者:
洪鴻智
/
林家鈺
作者(外文):
Hung, Hung-chih
/
Lin, Jia-yu
出版日期:
2015
卷期:
34:4
頁次:
頁349-361
主題關鍵詞:
預警系統
;
災害風險溝通
;
公共安全
;
多屬性效用
;
調適
;
Warning system
;
Hazard risk communication
;
Public security
;
Multi-attribute utility
;
Adaptation
原始連結:
連回原系統網址
相關次數:
被引用次數:期刊(
3
) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
排除自我引用:
3
共同引用:
36
點閱:21
氣候變遷與極端天氣帶來的挑戰,使許多國家致力於建置災害預警系統,以降低傷亡與風險,及促進公共衛生與安全。然預警系統規劃過程,需更廣納利害相關者參與及不同價值觀,以利於溝通與降低衝突。本文主要目的,在於探討利害相關者對颱洪災害預警系統價值判斷,及對其構成要素之偏好選擇,以提供災害風險管理決策參考。文中應用多屬性效用理論(multi-attribute utility theory),透過政府官員與專家問卷調查,引用價值函數與多變量分析,比較受訪者對預警系統不同構成因素重要性之判斷與偏好。分析結果發現政府官員與專家對預警系統設計考慮的要素,多數無顯著差異;多偏重在技術、容易標準化及「由上而下」之因素。認為主導預警系統運作的核心,仍以災害資訊提供及緊急應變為主,較忽略末端使與者反應與調適行為。因災害潛勢與衝擊充滿不確定性,公共安全與災害風險管理難完全依賴科技。而需更有效掌握居民脆弱度與調適力分布,及藉由雙向溝通與利害相關者參與,建立居民導向之預警與緊急救助系統。
以文找文
Many countries are developing hazard warning systems to confront the impact of climate change and other extreme events in order to reduce the risk of disasters and casualties, as well to enhance public health and security. As part of policymaking, a warning system also needs to more effectively minimize conflicts while communicating the risk of disaster to policymaking by inviting the participation of various stakeholders and incorporating their values into the process of system planning. The aim of this study was to explore the value preferences of stakeholders with regard to the components of typhoon-flood hazard warning systems. This study used multi-attribute utility theory to model stakeholder values for typhoon-flood hazard warning system choices. We interviewed officers and experts to determine weight and value preferences for the components of a warning system, and these were compared using value function and multivariate approaches. The differences in most value preferences between officers and experts were insignificant. They assigned higher weights to the provision of information and emergency preparedness functions in building warning systems. This implied that the warning system plan tended to be conceived largely as a 'top-down' and standardized process, with relatively little engagement of the end-users in terms of their characteristics, responses and adaptive capabilities. The uncertainties of the impact of hazards require that warning systems function not only on a sound technical basis, but also effectively consider the vulnerability, adaptive capacity and participation of the people exposed to risk. A people-centered warning system should be built to empower communities to prepare for, respond to and adapt to disaster risks. These findings could improve the process of planning warning systems to maximize public security and risk management.
以文找文
期刊論文
1.
Sharma, Upasna、Patwardhan, Anand、Parthasarathy, Devanathan(2009)。Assessing adaptive capacity to tropical cyclones in the East coast of India: A pilot study of public response to cyclone warning information。Climatic Change,94(1/2),189-209。
2.
Sorensen, John H.(2000)。Hazard warning systems: Review of 20 years of progress。Natural Hazards Review,1(2),119-125。
3.
Lindell, M. K.、Lu, J. C.、Prater, C. S.(2005)。Household decision making and evacuation in response to Hurricane Lili。Natural Hazards Review,6(4),171-179。
4.
Samarasundera, E.、Hansell, A.、Leibovici, D.、Horwell, C. J.、Anand, S.、Oppenheimer, C.(2014)。Geological hazards: From early warning systems to public health toolkits。Health & Place,30,116-119。
5.
Leonard, G. S.、Johnston, D. M.、Paton, D.、Christianson, A.、Becker, J.、Keys, H.(2008)。Developing effective warning systems: Ongoing research at Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand。Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research,172(3/4),199-215。
6.
Borga, M.、Anagnostou, E. N.、Blöschl, G.、Creutin, J. D.(2011)。Flash flood forecasting, warning and risk management: the HYDRATE project。Environmental Science & Policy,14(7),834-844。
7.
Basher, R.(2006)。Global early warning systems for natural hazards: systematic and people-centred。Published in Royal Society of London Transactions Series A,364(1845),2167-2182。
8.
Priest, S. J.、Parker, D. J.、Tapsell, S. M.(2011)。Modelling the potential damage-reducing benefits of flood warnings using European cases。Environmental Hazards,10(2),101-120。
9.
McCarthy, S. S.(2007)。Contextual influences on national level flood risk communication。Environmental Hazards,7(2),128-40。
10.
Bierbaum, R.、Smith, J. B.、Lee, A.(2012)。A comprehensive review of climate adaptation in the United States: more than before, but less than needed。Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,18(3),361-406。
11.
Taubenböck, H.、Goseberg, N.、Setiadi, N.(2009)。"Last-Mile" preparation for a potential disaster--Interdisciplinary approach towards tsunami early warning and an evacuation information system for the coastal city of Padang, Indonesia。Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,9,1509-1528。
12.
Huang, S. K.、Lindell, M. K.、Prater, C. S.、Wu, H. C.、Siebeneck, L. K.(2012)。Household Evacuation Decision Making in Response to Hurricane Ike。Natural Hazards Review,13(4),283-296。
13.
Raschky, P. A.(2008)。Institutions and the losses from natural disasters。Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,8,627-634。
14.
Molinari, D.、Handmer, J.(2011)。A behavioural model for quantifying flood warning effectiveness。Journal of Flood Risk Management,4(1),23-32。
15.
Lindell, Michael K.、Perry, Ronald W.(2012)。The Protective Action Decision Model: Theoretical Modifications and Additional Evidence。Risk Analysis,32(4),616-632。
16.
洪鴻智、盧禹廷(20150300)。沿海居民的氣候變遷與颱洪災害調適。都市與計劃,42(1),87-108。
延伸查詢
17.
Ananda, J.、Herath, G.(2003)。Incorporating stakeholder values into regional forest planning: a value function approach。Ecological Economics,45(1),75-90。
18.
Fearnley, C. J.(2013)。Assigning a Volcano Alert Level: Negotiating Uncertainty, Risk, and Complexity in Decision-Making Processes。Environment and Planning A,45(8),1891-911。
19.
Ananda, J.、Herath, G.(2003)。Evaluating public risk preferences in forest land-use choices using multi-attribute utility theory。Ecological Economics,55(3),408-419。
20.
Geneletti, D.(2005)。Formalising expert opinion through multi-attribute value functions: an application in landscape ecology。Journal of Environmental Management,76(3),255-262。
21.
Dash, N.、Gladwin, H.(2007)。Evacuation Decision Making and Behavioral Responses: Individual and Household。Natural Hazards Review,8(3),69-77。
22.
Hung, Hung-Chih、Wang, Tzu-Wen(2011)。Determinants and mapping of collective perceptions of technological risk: The case of the second nuclear power plant in Taiwan。Risk Analysis,31(4),668-683。
23.
Hung, Hung-Chih、Chen, Ling-Yeh(2013)。Incorporating stakeholders' knowledge into assessing vulnerability to climatic hazards: application to the river basin management in Taiwan。Climatic Change,120(1/2),491-507。
24.
Riad, J. K.、Norris, F. H.、Ruback, R. B.(1999)。Predicting Evacuation in Two Major Disasters: Risk Perception, Social Influence, and Access to Resources。Journal of Applied Social Psychology,29(5),918-934。
25.
Hung, Hung-Chih(2009)。The attitude towards flood insurance purchase when respondents' preferences are uncertain: A fuzzy approach。Journal of Risk Research,12(2),239-258。
26.
洪鴻智、陳令韡(20120600)。颱洪災害之整合性脆弱度評估--大甲溪流域之應用。地理學報,65,79-96。
延伸查詢
27.
洪鴻智、王翔榆(20100300)。多元性區域環境風險評估:以陽明山國家公園為例。都市與計劃,37(1),97-119。
延伸查詢
28.
Grothmann, Torsten、Patt, Anthony(2005)。Adaptive Capacity and Human Cognition: The Process of Individual Adaptation to Climate Change。Global Environmental Change,15(3),199-213。
圖書
1.
World Meteorological Organization(2011)。Strengthening of Risk Assessment and Multihazard Early Warning Systems for Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate Hazards in the Caribbean。Geneva, Switzerland:WMO。
2.
Mileti, D. S.、Sorensen, J. H.(1990)。Communication of Emergency Public Warnings: A Social Science Perspective and State-of-the Art Assessment。Oak Ridge, TN:Oakridge National Laboratory。
3.
經濟部水利署(2001)。建立洪水預警系統暨水利設施災害防救體系整合計畫。台北:經濟部水利署。
延伸查詢
4.
行政院農業委員會水土保持局(2011)。土石流災害預報與警報作業手冊。台北:行政院農業委員會水土保持局。
延伸查詢
5.
International Strategy for Disaster Reduction(2004)。Terminology: Basic Terms of Disaster Risk Reduction。Geneva:ISDR。
6.
International Strategy for Disaster Reduction(2005)。Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015: Building the Resilience of Nations to Disasters。Geneva, Switzerland:ISDR。
7.
Beinat, E.(1997)。Value Functions for Environmental Management。Dordecht:Kluwer。
8.
Olsthoorn, A. A.、Tol, R. S. J.(2001)。Floods, Flood Management and Climate Change in the Netherlands。Amsterdam:Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit。
9.
European Environment Agency(2013)。Late Lessons from Early Warnings: Science, Precaution, Innovation。Copenhagen:European Environment Agency。
10.
United Nations(2006)。Global Survey of Early Warning System: An Assessment of Capacities, Gaps and Opportunities towards Building A Comprehensive Global Early Warning System for All Natural Hazards。New York:United Nations。
11.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(2014)。Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Working Group II Contribution to AR5。Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press。
圖書論文
1.
Rogers, R. W.(1983)。Cognitive and physiological processes in fear appeals and attitude change: A revised theory of protection motivation。Social Psychophysiology: A Sourcebook。Guilford。
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