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題名：騎乘自行車之潛在風險分析
書刊名：運輸計劃
作者：鄭永祥 引用關係／田蕙寧
作者(外文)：Cheng, Yung-hsian／Tian, Hui-ning
出版日期：2015
卷期：44:3
頁次：頁271-287
主題關鍵詞：自行車；風險感知；Rasch模式；Logistic迴歸；Bicycle；Perceived risk；Rasch model；Logistic model
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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本研究針對都會區自行車使用者之潛在風險進行分析，期望了解造成自行車使用者所感知主觀風險之情境為何，本研究透過羅序（Rasch）模式分析自行車騎主觀風險認知；另一方面，則是透過自行車事故之客觀歷史資料進行迴歸分析，建構潛在風險因素和意外事故死亡人數之邏輯斯迴歸分析模式，並比較自行車使用者主觀風險和客觀資料所呈現之風險差異。本研究並透過羅序模式之DIF檢測與ANOVA分析，依基本特性將自行車使用者分類，找出風險感知度低之族群，並與自行車事故死亡機率的邏輯斯迴歸模型比較分析，進而找出對於行車環境中的高危險因子，但自行車使用者風險感知度低之高風險族群，並期望利用工程、教育與執法不同層面之改善來減少主觀和客觀因素間的風險落差，以提供自行車使用者一個安全舒適的行車環境。
This study aims to investigate the potential risks for bicyclists. The Rasch model is used to measure bicyclists’ subjective perceived risk, and logistic regression is constructed to find contributor to the bicycle accidents casualty. Besides, we compare the Rasch and logistic model to discuss the gap between subjective and objective view of the potential risks. Our result also demonstrates some situations may be dangerous but cyclist did not aware of it which is high potential risk. Furthermore, we characterize bicyclist by DIF test and ANOVA shows that male and older bicyclist ride at night has a higher risk to casualty accident. The finding of this study can help government to build a more safety riding environment for bicyclists.
期刊論文
1.Wachtel, A.、Lewiston, D.(1994)。Risk Factors for Bicycle-Motor Vehicle Collisions at Intersections。ITE Journal，64(9)，30-35。  new window
2.Sacks, J. J.、Holmgreen, P.、Smith, S. M.、Sosin, D. M.(1984)。Bicycle-Associated Head Injuries and Deaths in the United States from 1984 through 1988266(21)，3016-3018。  new window
3.Wood, J. M.、Lacherez, P. F.、Marszalek, R. P.、King, M. J.(2009)。Drivers' and Cyclists' Experiences of Sharing the Road: Incidents, Attitudes and Perceptions of Visibility。Accident Analysis & Prevention，41(4)，772-776。  new window
4.Parki, J.、Wardman M.、Pag, M.(2007)。Models of Perceived Cycling Risk and Route Acceptability。Accident Analysis＆ Prevention，39(2)，364-371。  new window
5.Bovy, P. H. L.、Brandley, M. A.(1985)。Route Choice Analysed with Stated Preference Approach。Transportation Research Record，1037，11-20。  new window
6.Landis, B. W.、Vattikuti, V. R.、Brannick, M. T.(1997)。Real-Time Human Perceptions toward a Bicycle Level of Service。Transportation Research Record，1578(1)，119-126。  new window
7.Sorton, A.、Walsh, T.(1994)。Bicycle Stress Level as a Tool to Evaluate Urban and Suburban Bicycle Compatibility。Transportation Research Record，1438，17-24。  new window
8.Lund, A. K.、O'Neill, B.(1986)。Perceived Risks and Driving Behavior。Accident Analysis & Prevention，18(5)，367-370。  new window
9.Chen, Y.、Wang, D.、TAO, Z.(2009)。Speed Character Study for Motor Vehicle and Bicycle at Non-Barrier Section。Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology，9(5)，53-57。  new window
10.Geoff, N.(1982)。A Rasch Modal for Partial Credit Scoring。Psychometrika，47(2)，149-174。  new window
11.Vlek, C. H.(1980)。Rational and Personal Aspects of Risk。Acta Psychologica，45(1-3)，273-300。  new window
12.Sze, N. N.、Wong, S. C.(2007)。Diagnostic Analysis of the Logistic Model for Pedestrian Injury Severity in Traffic Crashes。Accident Analysis & Prevention，39(6)，1267-1278。  new window
13.Brentari, E.、Golia, S.(2008)。Measuring Job Satisfaction in the Social Services Sector with the Rasch Model。Journal of Applied Measurement，9(1)，45-56。  new window
14.Siman-Tov, M.、Jaffe, D. H.(2012)。Bicycle Injuries: A Matter of Mechanism and Age。Accident Analysis & Prevention，44(1)，135-139。  new window
15.Summala H.、Pasanen E.、Räsänen M.、Sievänen J.(1996)。Bicycle Accidents and Drivers' Visual Search at Left and Right Turns。Accident Analysis＆Prevention，28(2)，147-153。  new window
16.Mikko, Räsänen、Heikki, Summala(1998)。Attention and Expectation Problems in Bicycle-Car Collisions: An In-Depth Study。Accident Analysis & Prevention，30(5)，657-666。  new window
17.Wang, Y.、Nihan, N. L.。Estimating the Risk of Collisions between Bicycles and Motor Vehicles at Signalized Intersections。Accident Analysis & Prevention，36(3)，313-321。  new window
18.Dawes, John(2008)。Do Data Characteristics Change According to the number of scale points used? An experiment using 5-point, 7-point and 10-point scales。International Journal of Market Research，50(1)，61-104。  new window
會議論文
1.Anderson, S. A.、Sloss, G. S.(2002)。Analysis of Traffic Collisions Involving Pedestrians and Bicycles During 2000 and 2001 in Louisville, Kentucky Bicycle and Pedestrian Coordinator Jefferson County Planning & Development Services。16th Biennial Symposium on Visibility and Simulation, Transportation Research Board。  new window
2.張新立、賴怡安(2009)。計程車搭乘恐懼量測與其影響因素之探討。中華民國運輸學會98 年學術論文國際研討會。中華民國運輸學會。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Linacre, J. M.(1994)。Many-Facet Rasch Measurement。Chicago：MESA Press。  new window
2.交通部運輸研究所(2010)。自行車使用狀況調查。  延伸查詢new window
3.交通部運輸研究所(2004)。腳踏車肇事特性分析及因應措施。  延伸查詢new window
4.McClintock, H.(1992)。The Bicycle and City Traffic。London：Belhaven Press。  new window
5.Jones, P.(1990)。Public Perceptions of Traffic Regulation in Urban Areas, Transport Studies Unit。London：Oxford University, Published by HMSO。  new window
6.Jeffrey, A. H.(1996)。Listening to Bike Lanes: Moving beyond the Feud。Montana：University of Montana。  new window
7.Abrams, B. S.、Broker, J. P.、Hill, P. F.(2006)。Bicycle Accidents: Biomechanical, Engineering, and Legal Aspects。Tucson, AZ：Lawyers & Judges Publishing Company。  new window
8.Kutner, M. H.、Nachtsheim, C. J.、Neter, J.(2003)。Applied Linear Regression Models。New York：McGraw-Hill。  new window
9.Hambleton , R. K.、Swaminathan, H.(1983)。Item Response Theory: Principles and Applications。New York：Springe。  new window
10.Hulin, C. L.、Drasgow, F.、Parsons, C. K.(1983)。Item Response Theory: Application to Psychological Measurement。Homewood, Illinois：Dow Jones-Irwin Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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