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題名：流感及其併發症病例數之研究與預測
書刊名：中國統計學報
作者：鄒佳蓁／柯沛程／簡郁紘／湯涴貽／陳怡如／曾瑋慈／陳宛晴
作者(外文)：Zou, Jia-zhen／Ke, Jau-chuan／Chien, Yu-hung／Tang, Wo-yi／Chen, Yi-ru／Zeng, Wei-cih／Chen, Wan-cing
出版日期：2021
卷期：59:3
頁次：頁172-225
主題關鍵詞：時間序列；流感及其併發症；預測能力；ARIMA模型；Croston模型；Holt-Winters' seasonal模型；ARIMA model；Croston model；Damped；Flu and its complications；Holt-Winters' seasonal model；Prediction ability；Python；Syntetos-Boulanger approximation；SBA；Time series
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:38
  • 點閱點閱:2
期刊論文
1.Holt, C. C.(2004)。Forecasting Seasonals and Trends by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages。International Journal of Forecasting，20(1)，5-10。  new window
2.Croston, J. D.(1972)。Forecasting and stock control for intermittent demands。Operational Research Quarterly，23(3)，289-303。  new window
3.Syntetos, A. A.、Boylan, J. E.(2005)。The accuracy of intermittent demand estimates。International Journal of Forecasting，21(2)，303-314。  new window
4.Winters, Peter. R.(1960)。Forecasting sales by exponentially weighted moving averages。Management Science，6(3)，324-342。  new window
5.Serfling, R. E.(1963)。Methods for current statistical analysis of excess pneumonia-influenza deaths。Public Health Reports (1896-1970)，78(6)，494-506。  new window
6.Reichert, T. A.、Simonsen, L.、Sharma, A.、Pardo, S. A.、Fedson, D. S.、Miller, M. A.(2004)。Influenza and the winter increase in mortality in the United States, 1959-1999。American Journal of Epidemiology，160，492-502。  new window
7.Smith, W.、Andrewes, C. H.、Laidlaw, P. P.(1933)。A virus obtained from influenza patients。Lancet，222(5732)，66-68。  new window
8.Choi, K.、Thacker, S. B.(1981)。An evaluation of influenza mortality surveillance, 1962-1979. II. Percentage of pneumonia and influenza deaths as an indicator of influenza activity。American Journal of Epidemiology，113，227-235。  new window
9.Barker, W. H.、Mullooly, J. P.(1980)。Impact of epidemic type A influenza in a defined adult population。American Journal of Epidemiology，112(6)，798-811。  new window
10.Thompson, W. W.、Shay, D. K.、Weintraub, E.、Brammer, L.、Cox, N.、Anderson, L. J.、Fukuda, K.(2003)。Mortality Associated With Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus in the United States。JAMA，289，179-186。  new window
11.Thompson, W. W.、Weintraub, E.、Dhankhar, P.、Cheng, P. Y.、Brammer, L.、Meltzer, M. I.、Shay, D. K.(2009)。Estimates of US Influenza-associated Deaths Made Using Four Different Methods。Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses，3(1)，37-49。  new window
12.Ekiz-Yilmaz, T.、Yapar, G.、Yavuz, I.(2019)。Time Series Forecasting of Intermittent Demand by Using ATA Method。Mugla Journal of Science and Technology，5，49-55。  new window
13.Molinari, N. A.、Ortega-Sanchez, I. R.、Messonnier, M. L.、Thompson, W. W.、Wortley, P. M.、Weintraub, E.、Bridges, C. B.(2007)。The Annual Impact of Seasonal Influenza in the US: Measuring Disease Burden and Costs。Vaccine，25，5086-5096。  new window
14.Mollison, D.、Isham, V.、Grenfell, B.(1994)。Epidemics: Models and Data。Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society)，157，115-149。  new window
15.Thompson, W. W.、Comanor, L.、Shay, D. K.(2006)。Epidemiology of Seasonal Influenza: Use of Surveillance Data and Statistical Models to Estimate the Burden of Disease。The Journal of Infectious Diseases，194(Supplement 2)，S82-S91。  new window
16.Dickey, David A.、Fuller, Wayne A.(1979)。Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root。Journal of the American Statistical Association，74(366)，427-431。  new window
17.Kwiatkowski, Denis、Phillips, Peter C. B.、Schmidt, Peter、Shin, Yongcheol(1992)。Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?。Journal of Econometrics，54(1-3)，159-178。  new window
18.Phillips, Peter C. B.、Perron, Pierre(1988)。Testing for a unit root in time series regression。Biometrika，75(2)，335-346。  new window
19.Said, S. E.、Dickey, David A.(1984)。Testing for Unit Roots in Autoregressive-Moving Average Models of Unknown Order。Biometrika，71(3)，599-607。  new window
20.Cheung, Yin-Wong、Chinn, M. D.(1996)。Deterministic, Stochastic, and Segmented Trends in Aggregate Output: A Cross-Country Analysis。Oxford Economic Papers，48(1)，134-162。  new window
研究報告
1.社團法人台灣感染管制學會(2017)。老年族群之傳染病研究 (計畫編號：MOHW106-CDC-C-114-000101)。  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.柯金美(2009)。運用網路搜尋工具監測環境傳染病流行趨勢之可行性研究(碩士論文)。國立高雄師範大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.陳源安(2020)。應用深度學習技術之集成學習方法於類流感疫情預測(碩士論文)。東海大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.黃立紘(2020)。基於深度學習方法之類流感發生率預測(碩士論文)。慈濟大學。  延伸查詢new window
4.蔡瑞瑩(2017)。類流感就診人次預測之研究--以台中市類流感門診人次為例(碩士論文)。國立中興大學。  延伸查詢new window
5.張雅真(2015)。台灣高齡族群流感預測與防治(碩士論文)。南開科技大學。  延伸查詢new window
6.張富祺(2016)。基於巨量資料分析之流感趨勢預測(碩士論文)。國立臺灣科技大學。  延伸查詢new window
7.吳齊軒(2010)。類流感高峰預測之相關議題(碩士論文)。國立清華大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Hyndman, R. J.、Athanasopoulos, G.(2018)。Forecasting: Principles and Practice。OTexts。  new window
2.Box, George E. P.、Jenkins, Gwilym M.(1970)。Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control。Holden-Day。  new window
3.陳旭昇(20130000)。時間序列分析：總體經濟與財務金融之應用。臺北：臺灣東華。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.Hanke, J.、Wichern, D.(2008)。Business Forecasting。Prentice Hall。  new window
其他
1.陳倩儀(2014)。淺談嬰幼兒呼吸道融合病毒感染，https://epaper.ntuh.gov.tw/health/201410/child_2.html。  延伸查詢new window
2.Waller, D.(2015)。Methods for Intermittent Demand Forecasting，https://www.lancaster.ac.uk/pg/waller/pdfs/Intermittent_Demand_Forecasting.pdf。  new window
3.World Health Organization(20181106)。Influenza (Seasonal)，https://www.who.int/en/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal)。  new window
 
 
 
 
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