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題名：台灣預算赤字之政經研究
作者：蔡馨芳 引用關係
作者(外文)：Hsin-fang Tsai
校院名稱：世新大學
系所名稱：行政管理學研究所(含博、碩專班)
指導教授：徐仁輝
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2011
主題關鍵詞：預算赤字；結構性赤字；財政永續性；預算決策分析；新制度經濟學；budget deficit；structural deficit；fiscal sustainability；budget decision analysis；new institutionalism
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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2008年底爆發全球金融風暴，歐美國家甚至遍及全球各國均面臨經濟衰退的考驗。為挽救幾乎呈現癱瘓狀態的金融體系，各國政府不得不採行金融與企業紓困措施。然而，這些權宜性財政政策無疑地加重各國政府財政負擔，對長期財政穩定產生負面而深遠的影響。台灣長期財政狀況趨勢，因整體經濟環境、人口結構變遷以及民主發展等多方因素，顯現財政收支結構僵化的傾向，形成結構性預算赤字。本研究之目的在於衡量台灣結構性赤字的規模，並驗證財政永續性之條件，做為闡述政策是否持續之依據。並藉由新制度經濟學的觀點，發展出新一代預算理論，以有效描述及解釋支出結構僵化及長期財政失衡的現象。
本文採用OECD之衡量模型及驗證時間序列恆定之計量技巧，進行台灣財政變數時間序列資料之衡量及驗證，發現台灣於1992~2008年間之結構性赤字占GDP的比例平均為4.1%，規模高於OECD國家全體結構性赤字占GDP比例的3%，財政結構化的情況頗為嚴重，必須密切觀察。同時依據財政收支時間序列資料之實證結果，台灣在1989年之後迄今，財政收支變數之間已無法滿足跨期平衡條件，表示政府必須審慎檢視政策變更之必要性，以確保財政之永續發展。另外，透過深度訪談的方式，探究新制度經濟學之相關理論對於當前台灣財政失衡現實解釋力，發現共同資源理論及代理人理論能描述機關競逐有限財政資源，導致赤字不斷擴張的趨勢，以及立法機關因資訊不對稱而導致監督成本過高，無法建立適當預算決策機制的現狀；而交易成本概念則能有效掌握台灣社會福利支出逐漸提高，進而形成結構僵化之論述，並做為總體預算制度短期有效性之理論依據。
Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, European countries and many others around the world have been facing recession challenge. In order to save the financial system that almost paralyzed, governments had to adopt aggressive revitalization strategies for banks and industries. These discretionary fiscal policies;however, increased the financial burden on governments, and caused negative and long-term impacts on financial stability. Due to the overall economic and political environment, demographically and democratically, Taiwan's long-term financial situation reveals the tendency of rigidities and structural budget deficit. The purpose of this study is as follows: 1) to measure the size of Taiwan's structural deficit; 2) to verify the level of fiscal sustainability as a basis for continued policies; 3)to develop a new generation of budget theory via new institutionalism perspective. These efforts would help describe and explain the structure of expenditure rigidities and long-term fiscal imbalance effectively.
By adopteing the OECD model to measure structural deficit and econometric techniques of time series analysis to verify the fiscal variables in Taiwan, the researcher found that the average of structural deficit as a percentage of GDP is 4.1 percent in Taiwan during 1992 and 2008. Comparing to the overall structural deficit in OECD countries, 3%, the figure is higher in Taiwan. The number shows that the situation of fiscal rigidity in Taiwan is quite serious and must be closely observed. Moreover, empirical results of time series data of Taiwan after 1989 also reveal that revenue and expenditure variables have been unable to meet the intertemporal equilibrium condition. Our Government should review the need for fiscal policy changes consistently and carefully to ensure the fiscal sustainability.
Four bodies of theories are applied in the explanation of the phenomenon of fiscal imbalances. In order to explore the explanatory power of fiscal imbalances with the lens of new institutionalism, the researcher also employs common resource theory to describe the authority of competition for limited financial resources. The theory is also able to explain the trend of deficit expansion in Taiwan. Agent theory explains why Legislature cannot establish an appropriate budget decision-making mechanism due to the high cost of supervision caused by information asymmetry. Short-term effectiveness of macro-budgeting system might be based on transaction costs theory that can effectively discourse the gradual increase of social welfare spending in Taiwan.
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