本文從社會運動理論的視角切入，將中國大陸的社會情勢區分為「結構崩解式」 的與「資源動員式」的兩種類型。又從是否支持現有政權的角度出發，將大陸的群眾運動 區分為「向心力」與「離心力」的兩種類型。這兩種分類的交叉綜合，本文建議了一項區 分「發展」與「動亂」的暫行性中國大陸社會情勢分析與理論架構，並從動亂的角度分析 最近發生在中國大陸的社會群眾運動。 　　由歷史與官方文獻資料研判，中國大陸的社會運動一直具有強烈的「議題設定」與「 動員色彩」，也一直被具有政策制訂權的官方主導，而由後繼者以「動亂循環論」的觀點 嫁禍以脫責。「法輪功事件」可能是中共史上第一次大規模由「非官方主導」的「自主性 」的群眾運動。被認定非法，也因此成為一項嚴重的「離心力」社會動亂事件。然而由「 資源動員論」的分析中，並不排除此一事件將來受到「保守陣營」的利用，走向「體制內 的動員」，成為另外一次「動亂循環論」用以嫁禍或脫責的犧牲者。此一團體能否發展成 為獨立的「民間勢力團體」，有賴於他們的同盟策略、外力援助以及是否有接受暴力鎮壓 的準備與堅持到底的決心。它的「體制外」走向，則可能產生一個真正「自主性」的非共 民間勢力團體的出現，造成中共政權的重大衝擊。

　　　　　According to social movement theories, Mainland China's social chaos can be explained by the theory of "structural break-down" or the theory of "resources mobilization". While Chinese officials favor the structural break-down perspective, putting responsibility of social chaos on policy consequences and using market economic reform as escape goats, western scholars have been emphasized the explanatory power of "resources mobilization theory". Western scholars demarcate the resources mobilizer of Chinese social movements into pro- government and anti-government, and proclaims that most of the social movements seen on Chinese media are government initiated. Through an investigation of historical documents and statistical data, the author has found various textual and logical inconsistencies in China's official reports on social situation. These inconsistencies reveal the government's en- deavor to set agenda and to mobilize resources. Therefore students of China studies should be more suspicious about these official materials and be more cautious in selecting approaches. In this paper, on going "Fa-lun-kung incident" is used as example for testing and searching for a research scheme for China's social movement. Whether or not the "Fa-lung-kung" movement would become the first Chinese autonomous social force that surfaced from the society as opposed to the state depends on the mobilization strategy of the movement.