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題名:人口老化--從最適人口成長的觀點重新詮釋
書刊名:人口學刊
作者:魯慧中 引用關係
作者(外文):Lu, Huei-chung
出版日期:1999
卷期:20
頁次:頁139-165
主題關鍵詞:人口老化一階隨機優勢最適人口成長率人口扶養比個人終身工資所得AgingFirst-degree stochastic dominanceOptimal population growthDependency ratioLifetime wage
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(3) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:3
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:26
在過去文獻中所提到的老化定義只是單就年齡的相對分配而言,但並未對社會中的最適年齡結構進行分析。舉例說明,開發中國家或是人口轉型初期的社會多面臨著較高的生育率,因此該社會的人口年齡結構太過年輕化,這對於整個國家或是勞動市場的勞動生產力而言未必是件好事。但如果該社會能適時適量地降低其人口成長率(如:控制生育率),卻可能對該社會有很大的助益;然而就人口年齡結構而言,該社會卻步向老化的方向。因此,我們要賦予人口老化一個比較明確的定義,那就是:該社會何時步入老化的境界,必須視其人口結構是否已趨於一個較不利的狀況,而這個臨界點便是該社會的最適人口成長率。故如何詮釋出社會的最適人口成長率將是本文主要的研究目的。   我們根據Chu ( 1997) 利用「一階隨機優勢」的概念先定義出何謂「老化」,而後證明在某些經濟目標之下:"高於最適人口成長時的人口老化,將使此經濟目標有所改善;而低於最適人口成長時的人口老化,將會使此經濟目標惡化。"我們可針對不同的經濟目標進行分析,如:人口扶養比、個人所得分配或是租稅負擔等。
Previous literature has defined “population aging” only based on the relative age distribution of a nation’s population, let alone the discussion regarding an optimal age distribution for a nation. For example, many developing countries have relatively high birth rates, by definition they are relatively “young” countries, which may be harmful in terms of the productivity for a nation as a whole. These countries may be better off economically by effectively lowering their birth rate and facing an “aging” problem. Therefore, we have to redefine the “aging”, not by looking at the age distribution, but by looking at when the age structure starts to have a negative economical impact to the society; at which we call it the optimal population growth rate. The research is to propose a theoretical framework, which can provide an analytical model of finding an optimal population growth path for a society. The research will use Chu' s (1997) first-degree stochastic dominance analytical framework to define “aging” and prove that a society can improve some economic objectives (for example, dependency ratio, individual income distribution, tax burden etc.) by effectively reducing the birth rate, when the population growth is above the optimal level. On the other hand, a society's economic objective would deteriorate when aging occurs at the time that population growth is below the optimal level.
期刊論文
1.Sen, Amartya(1976)。Poverty: An Ordinal Approach to Measurement。Econometrica,44(2),219-231。  new window
2.Atkinson, Anthony B.(1970)。On the Measurement of Inequality。Journal of Economic Theory,2(4),244-263。  new window
3.Hadar, J.、Russell, William R.(1969)。Rules for ordering uncertain prospects。American Economic Review,59(1),25-34。  new window
4.王秉鈞、林晉寬(19950300)。我國臺灣地區職業年齡結構類型之研究。管理科學學報,12(1),63-91。  延伸查詢new window
5.Ahluwalia, Montek S.(1976)。Inequality, Poverty and Development。Journal of Development Economics,3(4),307-342。  new window
6.Barro, Robert J.(1974)。Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?。Journal of Political Economy,82(6),1095-1117。  new window
7.Foster, James E.、Shorrock, Anthony(1991)。Subgroup Consistent Poverty Indices。Econometrica,59,687-709。  new window
8.Cowgill, D. O.(1949)。The Theory of Population Growth Cycles。American Journal of Sociology,55,163-170。  new window
9.Spilerman, S.、Kaufman, R. L.(1982)。The Age Structures of Occupations and Jobs。American Journal of Sociology,10(4),827-851。  new window
10.朱敬一、魯慧中(1995)。Toward a General Analysis of Endogenous Easterlin Cycles。Journal of Population Economics,8,35-57。  new window
11.朱敬一、江莉莉(1997)。Demographic Transition, Family Structure, and Income Inequality: Theory and Empirical Evidence of Taiwan。The Review of Economics and Statistics,79(4),665-669。  new window
12.朱敬一(1997)。Age-Distribution Dynamics and Aging Indexes。Demography,34(4),551-563。  new window
13.Lee, Ronald D.(1980)。Age Structure, Intergenerational Transfers and Economic Growth: An Overview。Revue Economique: special issue on economic demography,31(6),1129-1156。  new window
14.Freeman, Richard B.(1979)。The Effect of Demographic Factors on Age-Earnings Profiles。The Journal of Human Resources,14,289-318。  new window
15.Kefitz, Nathan(1985)。The Demographics of Unfunded Pensions。European Journal of Population,1,5-30。  new window
16.Lam, David(1986)。The Dynamics of Population Growth, Differential Fertility, and Inequality。The American Economic Review,76,1103-1116。  new window
17.Lam, David(1989)。Population Growth, Age Structure, and Age-Specific Productivity。Journal of Population Economics,2,189-210。  new window
18.Morely, S. A.(1981)。The Effect of Changes in the Population on Several Measures of Income Distribution。The American Economic Review,71,285-294。  new window
19.Ogawa, Naohiro(1986)。Consequences of Mortality Trends and Differentials。Department of International Economic and Social Affairs: Population Studies,95,175-184。  new window
20.von Weizsacker, Robert K.(1995)。Public Pension Reform, Demographics, and Inequality。Journal of Population Economics,8,205-221。  new window
21.Winegarden, C. R.(1978)。A Simultaneous-Equations Model of Population Growth and Income Distribution。Applied Economics,10,319-330。  new window
會議論文
1.林金源(1995)。家庭結構變化對臺灣所得分配的影響。臺灣經濟學會年會。臺北:臺灣經濟學會。161-178。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Morris, Cynthia T.、Adelman, Irma(1973)。Economic Growth and Social Equity in Developing Countries。Stanford, CA:Stanford University Press。  new window
2.Lam, David(1987)。Distribution Issues in the Relationship Between Population Growth and Economic Development。Population Growth and Economic Development: Issues and Evidence。Madison, WI。  new window
3.Lee, Ronald D.、Arthur, W. Brian、Rodgers, G.(1990)。Economics of Changing Age Distributions in Developed Countries。Economics of Changing Age Distributions in Developed Countries。沒有紀錄。  new window
4.Mincer, J.(1972)。Schooling, Experience, and Earnings。National Bureau of Economic Research。  new window
5.Repetto, R.(1979)。Economic Equality and Fertility in Developing Countries。Economic Equality and Fertility in Developing Countries。Baltimore, MD。  new window
其他
1.行政院經濟建設委員會人力規劃處(1993)。中華民國臺灣地區民國81年至125年人口推計,臺北。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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