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題名：臺灣生育率變遷對於人口成長的慣性作用
書刊名：人口學刊
作者：陳信木 引用關係／林佳瑩 引用關係
作者(外文)：Chen, Hsinmu／Lin, Chia-ying
出版日期：2010
卷期：40
頁次：頁1-39
主題關鍵詞：繁衍；淨繁殖率；穩定人口；定常人口；人口慣性；Net reproduction rate；Stable population model；Variable-rapproach；Non-stable population model；Population momentum
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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  • 共同引用共同引用:6
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對於一個封閉人口而言，自然增加乃是決定其人口繁衍之規模與速度的動力來源。但是，自然增加率固然是測量人口成長的良好指標，卻是無法反映人口之年齡結構，因而不能正確掌握該人口特定年齡群體的生育與死亡風險，相對地，Lotka的穩定人口理論，改以淨繁殖率測量人口繁衍的水準。具體而言，穩定人口模型在固定年齡結構的假定之下，將人口成長的水準透過複合式年輪的繁殖函數而反映，所以，透過Lotka的人口再生方程式可以瞭解人口動力變遷之下的年齡結構變化。不過，正因穩定人口理論假定「穩定人口」條件，用以測量實際人口成長時，特別是劇烈轉型的人口而言，亦將相當程度失真偏誤。因此，擴展古典的穩定人口理論，針對非穩定人口測量其人口繁衍水準，已經成為近來的人口研究熱門課題。本研究即以NIR、古典Lotka模型、與variable-r模型三個途徑，分別比較臺灣人口成長，藉以獲得更佳的人口估計和瞭解臺灣的人口發展潛在問題。除此之外，即使完成生育轉型的社會，低度生育率對於稍後人口成長仍將產生相當程度的影響作用，此即所謂的「人口慣性效應」。所以，本文亦將特別著重於探討臺灣在生育率轉型變遷過程，其所產生的人口成長慣性效應與其後果。
Taiwan has been experiencing radical fertility transition over the past several decades. Initially, Taiwan struggled against the population explosion caused by high fertility level. However, depopulation nightmare is currently suffered by Taiwan's demographic regime. Classical Lotka's stable population model has extensively employed to study the relationship between vital dynamics and age structure. Keyfits suggested the population momentum approach by relating stable population model to population size rather than to age structure or vital dynamics. In this study, we adopt Keyfit's new formulation and apply it to the non-stable, or variable-r, demographic conditions in Taiwan. Based on the findings from non-stable population model, the momentum effect of population growth in Taiwan is more pessimistic than any image suggested by previous studies. Were we able to raising Taiwan's lowest-low fertility to the replacement level, it is going to losing the population size more than 25% in the future.
期刊論文
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