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題名:中國區域能源、經濟與環境耦合的動態演化
書刊名:中國人口.資源與環境
作者:逯進常虹汪運波
出版日期:2017
卷期:2017(2)
頁次:60-68
主題關鍵詞:能源經濟環境耦合EnergyEconomicEnvironmentCoupling
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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文章全面解析了系統耦合機制,以此為基礎構建了能源、經濟與環境三系統耦合模型,測算了1995—2014年中國四大區域三大系統間的耦合協調水平,并從時空兩個維度對區域三系統交互關系的變化特征以及差異做出了全面討論。結果表明,1各省區經濟和環境綜合指數呈持續上升的良好態勢,而能源綜合指數在小幅波動中保持了較為穩定的發展狀態,同時三者關系極為密切,具體表現為三類指數的變動具有顯著的相關性。2三系統交互作用的耦合度均保持不斷遞增的演化趨勢,但絕對水平較低,且區域間差異較為明顯,整體上呈現由東到西遞減態勢。3三系統的耦合變化與能源-經濟、能源-環境和經濟-環境三類二元系統的協調發展具有密切的相關性。4在探索三系統耦合協調的持續發展路徑時,需重點引導三系統打破固有束縛,通過有秩序的相互配合產生單個系統所不具備的發展能力。而從現實狀態看,在當前面臨經濟下行、資源環境不可持續以及區域發展差異擴大等問題的嚴峻挑戰,各省區需結合本區域實際發展狀況和比較優勢制定發展規劃。東部需以雄厚的經濟實力為基礎強化技術創新,以帶動能源高效利用和環境保護;中部和東北需調整能源消費結構并提高能源利用效率;西部則應將重點放在綠色發展和防范環境風險兩方面。
This article analyzes coupling mechanism of systems and conducts the coupling model of energy,economy and environment(3E).By employing the model,we estimate the coupling degree of 3E and analyzes the characteristics of coupling changes and spacial difference of four regions during 1995-2014.Results show that the economic and environmental comprehensive index of provinces continuously tends to rise,energy index has a stable development trend with little ups and downs.Besides,the relationship among them is close and there is a significant correlation among them.The coupling degree of 3E reflects positive development trend,but the coupling level is not high and shows a significant difference between the region,which is decreasing from east to west.Meanwhile,the coupling change of 3E is closely related to the degree of coordination of energy-economic,energy-environment and economicenvironmental system.Therefore,when exploring the coupling development path,it is necessary to focus on how 3E system breaks the original bonds and produces the function which the single system dose not have by mutual cooperation with each other.Besides,we try to do an extended analysis of coupling transition mode and think that the coupling degree will continue to jump to a higher level.Now China is facing serious challenges,such as economic downturn,unsustainable resources and environment and regional development differences,so every province needs to combine state of development and comparative advantage with regional development planning.Based on economic strength,eastern region should strengthen technological innovation to improve energy efficiency and environmental protection.Central and northeast regions should adjust the structure of energy consumption and improve energy efficiency.Western region should focus on green development and the prevention of environmental risks.
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