當前中國人口結構正在改變,"少子化"和"老齡化"問題逐漸凸顯。"全面二孩"是生育政策調整和完善的重要一步,對未來中國經濟和社會將產生深遠影響。在政府頒布"全面二孩"政策的當下,探討政策帶來的人口結構變化,以及人口結構變化對我國住房消費的影響,具有重要的現實意義。通過對2010年第六次全國人口普查數據和《中國統計年鑒》2001—2016年數據的整理和比較,研究表明,"全面二孩"政策的實施會使少兒撫養比顯著提升,老齡化程度得到一定減輕,但不能改變人口迅速老齡化的大趨勢。通過采用滯后一期變量,利用動態面板廣義矩估計方法(GMM)估計人口年齡結構對住房消費的影響。估算結果表明:人口年齡結構因素不能解釋近年來中國房價的上漲,但能部分解釋住房面積水平的變化;少兒撫養比的提高會顯著降低住房消費面積,老年撫養比對住房消費面積沒有明顯影響。由于"全面二孩"的實施會提高少兒撫養比,因而從長期來看該政策的實施有利于降低商品房消費水平。從人口結構角度出發,未來我國房價不再具備快速上漲的需求基礎。政府應當積極采取措施避免房地產市場的疲軟對經濟發展產生不利影響。我們可以完善養老保險體系,增加老年人的消費能力,將商品服務結構逐步向老年市場轉移,大力發展高新技術產業來應對老齡化對住房和經濟市場的沖擊。

Currently,Chinese population structure has been changing,the weaknesses of low birth rate and aging problem come out gradually.‘Universal two-child’policy is an important step to adjust and perfect the childbearing policy,which will have revolutionary consequences.At the moment of the government publishing the policy of ‘universal two child’,it has practical significance to explore the change of population structure brought by the policy and the effect of demographic change to Chinese housing consumption.Through coordinating and comparing the data of the sixth national census and China Statistical Yearbook from 2001 to 2016,the result shows that the implementation of ‘universal two child’will raise the children’dependency ratio significantly,and it also alleviate the aging process to a certain extent.It’s a pity that it can not change the tendency of aging population.We use lagged variable and dynamic panel spacing estimation method( GMM) to estimate the effect of population age structure to housing consume.The estimation results dedicate that the factor of population age structure can not explain the rise of Chinese house price,but it can explain the change of housing area partially.The increasing of children’dependency ratio will lower the level of housing area significantly,but the old-age dependency ratio has no significant effect on the level of housing area.The implementation of‘universal two-child’policy will raise the children’dependency ratio,so it will lower the housing consumption in a long trend.From the view of population age structure,there is no demand basis of rapid growth on Chinese house price in the future.The government should take action actively to avoid the adverse effect of weak housing market on economic development.In recent years,the government has realized the importance of stimulating domestic demand,so we can complete the endowment insurance system,increase spending power of the old age,and transfer commodity service structure to the old market and strive to develop the high and new technology industry to cope with the crisis of aging to economic market.