文章利用2016年全國6省12市生育調查數據,分析中國城市家庭已婚已育一孩婦女的生育偏好與生育計劃及其影響因素,結果發現:有24.4%的人計劃生育二孩并且有明確的時間安排,有5.1%的人計劃生育二孩但沒有時間安排。生育偏好受個體家庭生活和成長環境的影響,跟公婆居住、有兄弟姐妹的女性更可能有二孩偏好,但這些因素并不對生育計劃產生影響;現實兩大限制因素——經濟成本和照料壓力影響生育二孩的計劃,但并不對生育偏好產生影響;男孩偏好是一種現實促進因素,第一個孩子是女孩的女性更可能有生育第二個孩子的計劃;生育計劃和生育偏好之間的偏離也主要受到現實因素(年齡、家庭收入、照料可獲得性、性別偏好)的影響。

Using the 2016 fertility survey data from 12 cities in 6 provinces of urban China,this study empirically investigates family size desire,second childbearing intention and their determinants for married women who have already given birth to one child.We find that 24.4% of women have a timetable plan for the birth of a second child,while 5.1% of women have intention but no timetable.Family backgrounds such as the number of siblings and whether a woman coresides with her parents-in-law have significant impact on the family size desire but are insignificantly associated with the second childbearing intention.In contrast,financial and care burdens significantly affect women’s second childbearing intention but are insignificantly associated with the family size desire.Sex preferences exist,meaning that women’s second childbearing intention is higher for those whose first child is a girl.Finally,the gap between women’s family size desire and second childbearing intention is mainly driven by practical factors such as women’s age,family’s financial status,care burdens and son preference.