文章以總和生育率低于1.5持續時間達到20年及以上作為低生育率陷阱的判斷標準,對66個1997年之前進入后生育率轉變階段的國家和地區的生育率變化趨勢進行觀察,有3個主要發現:一是低生育率陷阱并非偶然的存在,而且低生育率陷阱風險已經從22個國家和地區向世界其他國家和地區蔓延;二是低生育率陷阱并非不可避免,有21個國家和地區的總和生育率從未降到1.5以下,其中多數國家和地區在大多數年份都保持在1.7或1.8以上;三是低生育率陷阱并非不可以擺脫,但擺脫的國家和地區目前只是少數。由于生育率長期在低生育率陷阱臨界水平上波動,平均生育意愿顯著低于更替水平,以及其他對生育率具有負面影響的人口學因素的強化,中國已經面臨著低生育率陷阱的高度風險。

Using total fertility rate(TFR) of below 1.5 for over 20 years as the criterion for judging the low-fertility trap, this research examines the trend of fertility change in 66 countries and regions that entered the post-transitional stage before 1997. Three main findings are as follows: First, the low-fertility trap is not accidental; the risk of low-fertility trap has spread from 22 countries and regions to other parts of the world. Second, the low-fertility trap is not inevitable. There are 21 countries and regions where TFR has never fallen below 1.5, and most of them have remained above 1.7 or 1.8 in most years. Third, the low-fertility trap is not unescapable, but only a small number of countries and regions have succeeded. China has long stood and fluctuated at the critical level of the low-fertility trap, the average fertility intension level is significantly lower than the replacement level, and other demographic factors that have a negative impact on fertility have strengthened, there is a high risk of falling into the low-fertility trap.