:::

詳目顯示

回上一頁
題名:人口年齡結構變化影響城鄉居民消費率的效應差異研究--來自中國省級面板數據的證據
書刊名:人口研究
作者:劉鎧豪
作者(外文):Liu, Kai-hao
出版日期:2016
卷期:2016(2)
頁次:98-112
主題關鍵詞:少兒撫養比老年撫養比城鄉居民消費率Child dependency ratioElderly dependency ratioConsumption rate
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:2
文章通過擴展世代交疊模型,考察了人口年齡結構變化對一國居民消費率的影響。基于2000~2013年中國省級面板數據,系統廣義矩估計和門檻回歸結果表明:在城鎮地區,少兒撫養比和老年撫養比對消費率均產生正向影響,且該正向影響都隨收入增長率的提高而減弱;而在農村地區,少兒撫養比和老年撫養比對消費率均產生負效應,少兒撫養比的負效應隨收入增長率的提高而增強,老年撫養比的負效應卻呈現"倒U型"特征。研究結論表明:生命周期消費理論在中國只適用于城鎮地區,并不適用于農村地區,人口年齡結構變化影響城鄉居民消費率的效應差異十分顯著。城鎮地區少兒撫養比的大幅下降和農村地區老年撫養比的持續上升是中國居民消費率長期走低的重要原因。
Based on extended overlapping-generation model,this paper investigates the impacts of demographic changes on consumption rate. Using Chinese panel data from 2000 to 2013,the estimated results of system GMM and threshold regression reveal that child dependency ratio and elderly dependency ratio have a significant positive impact on consumption rate in urban areas,and the positive effect weakens with the improvement of income growth. While child dependency ratio and elderly dependency ratio have significant negative impact on consumption rate in rural areas,the negative impact of child dependency ratio on consumption rate strengthens with the improvement of income growth,and elderly dependency ratio shows an inverted U-shape relationship with consumption rate. Thus in China the life-cycle theory of consumption is only applicable to urban areas,and there are significant differential effects of demographic structure changes on urban and rural consumption rate. The long-term decline in the consumption rates is a result of the sharp fall of child dependency ratio in urban areas and the constant increase of elderly dependency ratio in rural areas.
期刊論文
1.Samuelson, Paul A.(1958)。An Exact Consumption-loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money。Journal of Political Economy,66(6),467-482。  new window
2.萬廣華、張茵、牛建高(2001)。流動性約束、不確定性與中國居民消費。經濟研究,2001(11),35-44。  延伸查詢new window
3.Cutler, D. M.、Poterba, J. M.、Sheiner, L. M.、Summers, L. H.、Akerlof, G. A.(1990)。An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?。Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,1,1-73。  new window
4.龍志和、周浩明(2000)。中國城鎮居民預防性儲蓄實證研究。經濟研究,2000(11),33-38。  延伸查詢new window
5.羅楚亮(2004)。經濟轉軌、不確定性與城鎮居民消費行為。經濟研究,2004(4),100-106。  延伸查詢new window
6.杜海韜、鄧翔(2005)。流動性約束和不確定性狀態下的預防性儲蓄研究--中國城鄉居民的消費特徵分析。經濟學,2005(2),297-316。  延伸查詢new window
7.朱國林、范建勇、嚴燕(2002)。中國的消費不振與收入分配:理論和數據。經濟研究,2002(5),72-80。  延伸查詢new window
8.段先盛(2009)。收入分配對總消費影響的結構分析--兼對中國城鎮家庭的實證檢驗。數量經濟技術經濟研究,2009(2),151-161。  延伸查詢new window
9.Neher, P. A.(1971)。Peasants, Procreation, and Pensions。American Economic Review,61,380-389。  new window
10.Weil, D. N.(1999)。Population Growth, Dependency, and Consumption。American Economic Review,89,251-255。  new window
11.于學軍(1996)。中國人口老化與儲蓄。人口與經濟,1996(3),10-17。  延伸查詢new window
12.Kraay, Aart(2000)。Household Saving in China。The World Bank Econominc Review,14(3),545-570。  new window
13.袁志剛、宋錚(2000)。人口年齡結構、養老保險制度與最優儲蓄率。經濟研究,2000(11),24-32。  延伸查詢new window
14.李文星、徐長生、艾春榮(2008)。中國人口年齡結構和居民消費:1989-2004。經濟研究,2008(7),118-129。  延伸查詢new window
15.楊繼軍、張二震(2013)。人口年齡結構、養老保險制度轉軌對居民儲蓄率的影響。中國社會科學,2013(8),47-66。  延伸查詢new window
16.宋保慶、林筱文(2010)。人口年齡結構變動對城鎮居民消費行為的影響。人口與經濟,2010(4),11-17。  延伸查詢new window
17.王宇鵬(2011)。人口老齡化對中國城鎮居民消費行為的影響研究。中國人口科學,2011(1),64-73。  延伸查詢new window
18.李春琦、張杰平(2009)。中國人口結構變動對農村居民消費的影響研究。中國人口科學,2009(4),14-22。  延伸查詢new window
19.李承政、丘俊杰(2012)。中國農村人口結構與居民消費研究。人口與經濟,2012(1),49-56。  延伸查詢new window
20.吳海江、何淩霄、張忠根(2013)。中國人口年齡結構與城鄉居民消費差距:2000-2011。山西財經大學學報,2013(10),10-19。  延伸查詢new window
21.吳海江、何淩霄、張忠根(2014)。中國人口年齡結構對城鄉居民消費差距的影響。數量經濟技術經濟研究,2014(2),3-19+35。  延伸查詢new window
22.王歡、黃健元(2015)。中國人口年齡結構與城鄉居民消費關係的實證分析。人口與經濟,2015(2),11-20。  延伸查詢new window
23.Blundell, Richard W.、Bond, Stephen R.(1998)。Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models。Journal of Econometrics,87(1),115-143。  new window
24.Arellano, Manuel、Bover, Olympia(1995)。Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Component Models。Journal of Econometrics,68(1),29-51。  new window
研究報告
1.Horioka, C. Y.、Wan, J.(2006)。The Determinants of Household Saving in China: A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data。  new window
2.Chamon, M.、Prasad, E.(2008)。Why Are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?。  new window
圖書
1.Duesenberry, James S.(1949)。Income, saving, and the theory of consumer behavior。Harvard University Press。  new window
圖書論文
1.Modigliani, Franco、Brumberg, R.(1954)。Utility Analysis and the Consumption Function: An Interpretation of Cross-section Data。Post Keynesian Economics。New Brunswick, NJ:Rutgers University Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top