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題名:國際衝突之實證研究:以「印巴問題」為例
作者:岳瑞麒
作者(外文):Jui-Chi Yueh
校院名稱:中興大學
系所名稱:國際政治研究所
指導教授:蔡東杰
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2011
主題關鍵詞:衝突升級中介第三者國際體系(極)民主和平次序邏輯迴歸模型Conflict EscalationThird Party IntermediatePolarityDemocratic PeaceOrdinal Logistic Model
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本論文主要討論國際政治中衝突升級的強度與影響因素。整體衝突強度升級的過程可區分為五個不同階段:一般利益衝突、非軍事危機、武裝衝突危機、有限軍事行動之有限戰爭及全面戰爭。此外,從相關文獻回顧中,得以建立一個基本衝突升級強度模型,二個主要參與國互動取決衝突升級結局,從和平解決到戰爭爆發。由先前學者對於戰爭起因、衝突解決、調停者作為等研究文獻,整現出對衝突結局有重大影響之相關因素。本論文便藉由相關實證理論探討衝突升級的不同影響因素:如國際體系(極的結構)、中介第三者、民主和平論、及軍事聯盟與相互核武所形成之嚇阻效應是否影響危機結果。
對此,本論文同時採用量化與質化研究方法以確保研究成果的深度與廣度。量化研究利用國際危機行為資料庫(ICB Project 2009)所建立之資料檔,並運用次序邏輯迴歸模型(ordinal logistic model)分析相關因素之影響係數;質化研究方面則以印巴問題作為研究個案,找出美國、前蘇聯,以及國際組織介入背後的隱藏因素。
結果發現在國際單極體系下、美國的介入,以及具有相互核武嚇阻能力,衝突較不易升高到另一嚴重階段,但與強權的軍事聯盟關係卻無法預防衝突的擴大,反而增加其升高的機會。此外,中立第三者的聯合國是為了減少人員傷亡及加速終結戰爭而介入,而共同民主體制對於衝突升級影響不大。然而,經由個案研究則發現國際體系變遷到單極國際體系、美巴之間軍事合作關係及印巴間的核武嚇阻讓印巴衝突在衝突升級階段與減緩階段不同,僅止於有限軍事行動的衝突階段。
This thesis mainly discusses the phenomena of conflict escalation and its influences in the international politics. It distinguished the overall processes of conflict escalation into five stages: Conflicts of interest, nonviolent crisis, armed conflict crisis, limited wars, and full wars that cause huge amount of casualties. Furthermore, a basic model of conflict escalation in which the interactions between two major states determined the final results of conflict escalation was established from reviews of related literatures.
In addition, the previous academic works that focused on the reasons of war, conflict resolutions, the functions of mediators… etc. have helped to reveal the elements that could overwhelm the final outcomes of conflicts, from peaceful resolving to war waging. Overall, it discussed the different influences of the polarity in international system, third-party intermediate, democratic peace, and relationship from military alliance and mutual nuke capacity which have been empirically verified to be able to affect the processes of conflict.
As for the research methods, it utilizes both qualitative and quantitative methods to ensure the breadth and depth of the research results. With the datasets from the International Crisis Behavior Project 2009 (ICB project 2009), the statistical model of ordinal logistic regression model (proportional odds model) was applied to analyze the relative coefficient of different impact factors.
Furthermore, by studying the case of Indian-Pakistan problem, it revealed more about the hidden factors from the intervention of the U.S., former Soviet Union, and international organization.
In conclusions, the research results presented that unipolarity and mutual nuke capacity could prevent crisis escalating into more serious stages. However, the deterrence effects formed from military alliances could increase the chance of conflict escalation. As for the third party intervention, they would take actions to end the wars sooner and prevent further increases in casualties. The joint-democratic regime has minimal effects on conflict escalation. With in-depth case studies of the Indian-Pakistan problem, it was learned that changes of international system from bipolarity to unipolarity, the military cooperative relations between Indian-Pakistan and U.S., and Indian-Pakistan mutual nuke capacity made the conflict escalation stage that stopped escalating into war different from the conflict de-escalation stage.
一、中文部分
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(二)期刊論文
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〈印巴元首熱線商救災〉。《聯合報》。2005年10月10日,版A3。
〈禁核—印巴建立熱線〉。《聯合報》。2004年6月21日,版A14。
《人民日報》。2001年3月14日,版3。

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(三)網路資料
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The Japan Times, January 13, 1995, p. 4.

 
 
 
 
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